Related papers: CERES: A Probabilistic Early Warning System for Ac…
Recent advances in deep learning (DL) have prompted the development of high-performing early warning score (EWS) systems, predicting clinical deteriorations such as acute kidney injury, acute myocardial infarction, or circulatory failure.…
A new semi-parametric Expected Shortfall (ES) estimation and forecasting framework is proposed. The proposed approach is based on a two-step estimation procedure. The first step involves the estimation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) at different…
Sepsis is a life-threatening condition that requires rapid detection and treatment to prevent progression to severe sepsis, septic shock, or multi-organ failure. Despite advances in medical technology, it remains a major challenge for…
The early detection of anomalous events in time series data is essential in many domains of application. In this paper we deal with critical health events, which represent a significant cause of mortality in intensive care units of…
With climate change-related extreme events on the rise, high dimensional Earth observation data presents a unique opportunity for forecasting and understanding impacts on ecosystems. This is, however, impeded by the complexity of…
Early prediction of patients at risk of clinical deterioration can help physicians intervene and alter their clinical course towards better outcomes. In addition to the accuracy requirement, early warning systems must make the predictions…
There is increasing interest in the use of HPC machines for urgent workloads to help tackle disasters as they unfold. Whilst batch queue systems are not ideal in supporting such workloads, many disadvantages can be worked around by…
As the number of Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVE) continues to grow exponentially, security teams face increasingly difficult decisions about prioritization. Current approaches using Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS)…
Solar energetic particles (SEPs) are an essential source of space radiation, which are hazards for humans in space, spacecraft, and technology in general. In this paper we propose a deep learning method, specifically a bidirectional long…
The Global Flood Monitoring (GFM) system of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS) addresses the challenges and impacts that are caused by flooding. The GFM system provides global, near-real time flood extent masks for each…
We propose a novel information-theoretic approach for Bayesian optimization called Predictive Entropy Search (PES). At each iteration, PES selects the next evaluation point that maximizes the expected information gained with respect to the…
Sepsis is the leading cause of death in non-coronary intensive care units. Moreover, a delay of antibiotic treatment of patients with severe sepsis by only few hours is associated with increased mortality. This insight makes accurate models…
With the rise of the Internet, there is a growing need to build intelligent systems that are capable of efficiently dealing with early risk detection (ERD) problems on social media, such as early depression detection, early rumor detection…
Emergent-scene safety is the key milestone for fully autonomous driving, and reliable on-time prediction is essential to maintain safety in emergency scenarios. However, these emergency scenarios are long-tailed and hard to collect, which…
Water demand is a highly important variable for operational control and decision making. Hence, the development of accurate forecasts is a valuable field of research to further improve the efficiency of water utilities. Focusing on…
This paper addresses estimates of climate risk embedded within a bank credit portfolio. The proposed Climate Extended Risk Model (CERM) adapts well known credit risk models and makes it possible to calculate incremental credit losses on a…
Fever can provide valuable information for diagnosis and prognosis of various diseases such as pneumonia, dengue, sepsis, etc., therefore, predicting fever early can help in the effectiveness of treatment options and expediting the…
We consider the effect of different temporal error structures on the inference of equilibrium climate sensitivity\footnote{ECS is defined as the realized equilibrium surface warming---globally-averaged surface air temperature---for a…
In the face of climate change-induced droughts, vulnerable regions encounter severe threats to food security, demanding urgent humanitarian assistance. This paper introduces a causal inference framework for the Horn of Africa, aiming to…
Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are known to occur following solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). However some high-energy solar events do not result in SEPs being detected at Earth, and it is these types of event which may…