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The evaluation of time series forecasting models is hindered by a lack of high-quality benchmarks, leading to overestimated assessments of progress. Existing datasets suffer from issues ranging from small-scale, low-frequency, pre-training…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Zhijian Xu , Wanxu Cai , Xilin Dai , Zhaorong Deng , Qiang Xu

Time series forecasting is critical across finance, healthcare, and cloud computing, yet progress is constrained by a fundamental bottleneck: the scarcity of large-scale, high-quality benchmarks. To address this gap, we introduce…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Siqiao Xue , Zhaoyang Zhu , Wei Zhang , Rongyao Cai , Rui Wang , Yixiang Mu , Fan Zhou , Jianguo Li , Peng Di , Hang Yu

Forecasting has become a natural benchmark for reasoning under uncertainty. Yet existing evaluations of large language models remain limited to judgmental tasks in simple formats, such as binary or multiple-choice questions. In practice,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-20 Jeremy Qin , Maksym Andriushchenko

Forecasting is an indispensable element of operational research (OR) and an important aid to planning. The accurate estimation of the forecast uncertainty facilitates several operations management activities, predominantly in supporting…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-18 Xiaoqian Wang , Yanfei Kang , Fotios Petropoulos , Feng Li

Motion forecasting is crucial in enabling autonomous vehicles to anticipate the future trajectories of surrounding agents. To do so, it requires solving mapping, detection, tracking, and then forecasting problems, in a multi-step pipeline.…

This paper presents a time series forecasting framework which combines standard forecasting methods and a machine learning model. The inputs to the machine learning model are not lagged values or regular time series features, but instead…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-15 Shi Zhao , Ying Feng

Forecasting models that are trained across sets of many time series, known as Global Forecasting Models (GFM), have shown recently promising results in forecasting competitions and real-world applications, outperforming many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-07 Kasun Bandara , Hansika Hewamalage , Yuan-Hao Liu , Yanfei Kang , Christoph Bergmeir

Deep learning has contributed remarkably to the advancement of time series analysis. Still, deep models can encounter performance bottlenecks in real-world data-scarce scenarios, which can be concealed due to the performance saturation with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-21 Yong Liu , Haoran Zhang , Chenyu Li , Xiangdong Huang , Jianmin Wang , Mingsheng Long

Time-Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) are rapidly transitioning from research prototypes to core components of critical decision-making systems, driven by their impressive zero-shot forecasting capabilities. However, as their deployment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-09 Jiawen Zhang , Zhenwei Zhang , Shun Zheng , Xumeng Wen , Jia Li , Jiang Bian

Economic complexity methods, and in particular relatedness measures, lack a systematic evaluation and comparison framework. We argue that out-of-sample forecast exercises should play this role, and we compare various machine learning models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-01 Giambattista Albora , Luciano Pietronero , Andrea Tacchella , Andrea Zaccaria

Time series data is being used everywhere, from sales records to patients' health evolution metrics. The ability to deal with this data has become a necessity, and time series analysis and forecasting are used for the same. Every Machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-29 Rameshwar Garg , Shriya Barpanda , Girish Rao Salanke N S , Ramya S

Time Series forecasting is critical in diverse domains such as weather forecasting, financial investment, and traffic management. While traditional numerical metrics like mean squared error (MSE) can quantify point-wise accuracy, they fail…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-08-01 Mingyang Yu , Xiahui Guo , Peng chen , Zhenkai Li , Yang Shu

Multivariate Time Series Forecasting (MTSF) has long been a key research focus. Traditionally, these studies assume a fixed number of variables, but in real-world applications, Cyber-Physical Systems often expand as new sensors are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Minbo Ma , Kai Tang , Huan Li , Fei Teng , Dalin Zhang , Tianrui Li

Performance estimation aims at estimating the loss that a predictive model will incur on unseen data. These procedures are part of the pipeline in every machine learning project and are used for assessing the overall generalisation ability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-31 Vitor Cerqueira , Luis Torgo , Igor Mozetic

Time series forecasting plays a significant role in finance, energy, meteorology, and IoT applications. Recent studies have leveraged the generalization capabilities of large language models (LLMs) to adapt to time series forecasting,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Hao Liu , Xiaoxing Zhang , Chun Yang , Xiaobin Zhu

Time series forecasting in specialized domains is often constrained by limited data availability, where conventional models typically require large-scale datasets to effectively capture underlying temporal dynamics. To tackle this few-shot…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Haonan Shi , Dehua Shuai , Liming Wang , Xiyang Liu , Long Tian

Multi-step forecasting (MSF) in time-series, the ability to make predictions multiple time steps into the future, is fundamental to almost all temporal domains. To make such forecasts, one must assume the recursive complexity of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Riku Green , Grant Stevens , Telmo de Menezes e Silva Filho , Zahraa Abdallah

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) demonstrate impressive zero-shot performance for time series forecasting. However, an important yet underexplored challenge is how to effectively finetune TSFMs on specific downstream tasks. While naive…

Sequence-to-sequence models based on LSTM and GRU are a most popular choice for forecasting time series data reaching state-of-the-art performance. Training such models can be delicate though. The two most common training strategies within…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-18 Philipp Teutsch , Patrick Mäder

A major bottleneck of the current Machine Learning (ML) workflow is the time consuming, error prone engineering required to get data from a datastore or a database (DB) to the point an ML algorithm can be applied to it. Hence, we explore…

Databases · Computer Science 2021-02-16 Anish Agarwal , Abdullah Alomar , Devavrat Shah