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Forecasts of future events are essential inputs into informed decision-making. Machine learning (ML) systems have the potential to deliver forecasts at scale, but there is no framework for evaluating the accuracy of ML systems on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-03 Ezra Karger , Houtan Bastani , Chen Yueh-Han , Zachary Jacobs , Danny Halawi , Fred Zhang , Philip E. Tetlock

Time-series forecasting has seen significant advancements with the introduction of token prediction mechanisms such as multi-head attention. However, these methods often struggle to achieve the same performance as in language modeling,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Panayiotis Christou , Shichu Chen , Xupeng Chen , Parijat Dube

Large language models (LLMs) have been applied in many fields and have developed rapidly in recent years. As a classic machine learning task, time series forecasting has recently been boosted by LLMs. Recent works treat large language…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-31 Hua Tang , Chong Zhang , Mingyu Jin , Qinkai Yu , Zhenting Wang , Xiaobo Jin , Yongfeng Zhang , Mengnan Du

Recent advances in deep learning have driven rapid progress in time series forecasting, yet many state-of-the-art models continue to struggle with robust performance in real-world applications, even when they achieve strong results on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Qitai Tan , Yiyun Chen , Mo Li , Ruiwen Gu , Yilin Su , Xiao-Ping Zhang

Time-series forecasting is a critical challenge in various domains and has witnessed substantial progress in recent years. Many real-life scenarios, such as public health, economics, and social applications, involve feedback loops where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-04 Zhiyuan Zhao , Haoxin Liu , Alexander Rodriguez , B. Aditya Prakash

We formulate a new inference task in the domain of multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF), called Variable Subset Forecast (VSF), where only a small subset of the variables is available during inference. Variables are absent during…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-28 Jatin Chauhan , Aravindan Raghuveer , Rishi Saket , Jay Nandy , Balaraman Ravindran

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated their effectiveness in multivariate time series classification (MTSC). Effective adaptation of LLMs for MTSC necessitates informative data representations. Existing LLM-based methods directly…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Jiahao Wang , Mingyue Cheng , Qingyang Mao , Yitong Zhou , Daoyu Wang , Qi Liu , Feiyang Xu , Xin Li

Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) plays a vital role in a wide range of real-world applications, such as weather prediction and traffic flow forecasting. Although recent advances have significantly improved the modeling of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-03 Beiliang Wu , Peiyuan Liu , Yifan Hu , Luyan Zhang , Ao Hu , Zenglin Xu

Conventional time-series forecasting methods typically aim to minimize overall prediction error, without accounting for the varying importance of different forecast ranges in downstream applications. We propose a training methodology that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-15 Luca-Andrei Fechete , Mohamed Sana , Fadhel Ayed , Nicola Piovesan , Wenjie Li , Antonio De Domenico , Tareq Si Salem

In order to support the advancement of machine learning methods for predicting time-series data, we present a comprehensive dataset designed explicitly for long-term time-series forecasting. We incorporate a collection of datasets obtained…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-29 Jacek Cyranka , Szymon Haponiuk

Time series forecasting serves as an essential tool for many real-world applications, supporting tasks such as resource optimization and decision-making. Despite significant architectural advancements, most modern models still treat…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Sheng Pan , Ming Jin , Bo Du , Shirui Pan

Time-series forecasting is an essential task with wide real-world applications across domains. While recent advances in deep learning have enabled time-series forecasting models with accurate predictions, there remains considerable debate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-26 Zhiyuan Zhao , Juntong Ni , Shangqing Xu , Haoxin Liu , Wei Jin , B. Aditya Prakash

Time series forecasting presents significant challenges in real-world applications across various domains. Building upon the decomposition of the time series, we enhance the architecture of machine learning models for better multivariate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Sanjeev Panta , Xu Yuan , Li Chen , Nian-Feng Tzeng

Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) is a fundamental problem in numerous real-world applications. Recently, Transformer has become the de facto solution for MTSF, especially for the long-term cases. However, except for the one…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-07 Zanwei Zhou , Ruizhe Zhong , Chen Yang , Yan Wang , Xiaokang Yang , Wei Shen

Time series forecasting has widespread applications in urban life ranging from air quality monitoring to traffic analysis. However, accurate time series forecasting is challenging because real-world time series suffer from the distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-15 Wenying Duan , Xiaoxi He , Lu Zhou , Lothar Thiele , Hong Rao

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have demonstrated increasing capabilities due to their extensive pretraining on large volumes of diverse time series data. Consequently, the quality of time series data is crucial to TSFM performance,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-11 Shunyu Wu , Tianyue Li , Yixuan Leng , Jingyi Suo , Jian Lou , Dan Li , See-Kiong Ng

In the current context of Big Data, the nature of many forecasting problems has changed from predicting isolated time series to predicting many time series from similar sources. This has opened up the opportunity to develop competitive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-23 Hansika Hewamalage , Christoph Bergmeir , Kasun Bandara

Time series forecasting (TSF) plays a critical role in decision-making for many real-world applications. Recently, LLM-based forecasters have made promising advancements. Despite their effectiveness, existing methods often lack explicit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Xiaoyu Tao , Mingyue Cheng , Ze Guo , Shuo Yu , Yaguo Liu , Qi Liu , Shijin Wang

This paper introduces a novel meta-learning algorithm for time series forecast model performance prediction. We model the forecast error as a function of time series features calculated from the historical time series with an efficient…

Applications · Statistics 2022-07-11 Thiyanga S. Talagala , Feng Li , Yanfei Kang

Long-term time-series forecasting is essential for planning and decision-making in economics, energy, and transportation, where long foresight is required. To obtain such long foresight, models must be both efficient and effective in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-05 Chao Ma , Yikai Hou , Xiang Li , Yinggang Sun , Haining Yu , Zhou Fang , Jiaxing Qu