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Non-stationary time series modelling is applied to long tidal records from Esbjerg, Denmark, and coupled to climate change projections for sea-level and storminess, to produce projections of likely future sea-level maxima. The model has…

Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-01-25 Justin Finkel , Edwin P. Gerber , Dorian S. Abbot , Jonathan Weare

Parameters in climate models are usually calibrated manually, exploiting only small subsets of the available data. This precludes both optimal calibration and quantification of uncertainties. Traditional Bayesian calibration methods that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-04 Oliver R. A. Dunbar , Alfredo Garbuno-Inigo , Tapio Schneider , Andrew M. Stuart

With climate extremes' rising frequency and intensity, robust analytical tools are crucial to predict their impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. Machine learning techniques show promise but require well-structured, high-quality, and curated…

Accurately quantifying the increased risks of climate extremes requires generating large ensembles of climate realization across a wide range of emissions scenarios, which is computationally challenging for conventional Earth System Models.…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-08-22 Mengze Wang , Benedikt Barthel Sorensen , Themistoklis Sapsis

MEDEAS (Modelling the Energy Development under Environmental And Socioeconomic constraint) World is a new global-aggregated energy-economy-environmental model, which runs from 1995 to 2050. In this work, we tested the MEDEAS world model to…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-07-31 Gianluca Martelloni , Francesca Di Patti , Ilaria Perissi , Sara Falsini , Ugo Bardi

Modeling the risk of extreme weather events in a changing climate is essential for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Although the available low-resolution climate models capture different scenarios, accurate risk…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-12-06 Anamitra Saha , Sai Ravela

High-resolution climatic data are essential to many applications in environmental research. Here we develop a new semi-mechanistic downscaling approach for daily precipitation that incorporates high resolution (30 arc sec) satellite-derived…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-10-13 Dirk Nikolaus Karger , Adam M. Wilson , Colin Mahony , Niklaus E. Zimmermann , Walter Jetz

The evaluation of climate models is a crucial step in climate studies. It consists of quantifying the resemblance of model outputs to reference data to identify models with superior capacity to replicate specific climate variables. Clearly,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-07-11 Mario J. Gómez , Luis A. Barboza , Hugo G. Hidalgo , Eric J. Alfaro

The climate change attribution problem is addressed using empirical decomposition. Cycles in solar motion and activity of 60 and 20 years were used to develop an empirical model of Earth temperature variations. The model was fit to the…

Geophysics · Physics 2012-06-27 Craig Loehle , Nicola Scafetta

There is continuing interest in the investigation of change in temperature over space and time. We offer a set of tools to illuminate such change temporally, at desired temporal resolution, and spatially, according to region of interest,…

The temporal and spatial trends of 16 climate extreme indices based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures during the period 1987-2016 at 28 stations distributed across Israel and Palestine in the Levant region were annually and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-01-18 Ala A. M. Salameh , Sonia R. Gámiz-Fortis , Yolanda Castro-Díez , Ahmad Abu Hammad , María Jesús Esteban-Parra

To study trends in extreme precipitation across US over the years 1951-2017, we consider 10 climate indexes that represent extreme precipitation, such as annual maximum of daily precipitation, annual maximum of consecutive 5-day average…

Applications · Statistics 2019-01-01 Arnab Hazra , Brian J. Reich , Ana-Maria Staicu

As climate change drives an increase in global extremes, it is critical for Bangladesh, a nation highly vulnerable to these impacts, to assess future risks for effective adaptation and mitigation planning. Downscaling coarse-resolution…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-24 Anamitra Saha , Sai Ravela

Annual maximum temperature data provides crucial insights into the impacts of climate change, especially for regions like India, where temperature variations have significant implications for agriculture, health, and infrastructure. In this…

Applications · Statistics 2025-07-03 Chitradipa Chakraborty

Here we evaluate the sea ice, surface air temperature, and sea-level-pressure from 31 of the models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for their biases, trends, and variability, and compare them to the CMIP5…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-12-30 Richard Davy , Stephen Outten

High-resolution climate simulations are valuable for understanding climate change impacts. This has motivated use of regional convection-permitting climate models (CPMs), but these are very computationally expensive. We present a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-02-05 Henry Addison , Elizabeth Kendon , Suman Ravuri , Laurence Aitchison , Peter AG Watson

Rare weather and climate events, such as heat waves and floods, can bring tremendous social costs. Climate data is often limited in duration and spatial coverage, and climate forecasting has often turned to simulations of climate models to…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-18 Meagan Carney , Holger Kantz , Matthew Nicol

In order to investigate the scope of uncertainty in projections of GCMs for Tehran province, a multi-model projection composed of 15 models is employed. The projected changes in minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-09-13 Ehsan Mosadegh , Iman Babaeian

Atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) extracted from satellite imagery are the only wind observations with good global coverage. They are important features for feeding numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Several Bayesian models have…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-26 Patrick Héas , Frédéric Cérou , Mathias Rousset