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Bayesian hypothesis testing via Bayes factors offers a principled alternative to classical p-value methods in meta-analysis, particularly suited to its cumulative and sequential nature. Unlike commonly reported p-values for standard null…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-22 Joris Mulder , Robbie C. M. van Aert

This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-22 Zhendong Wang , Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , Mingyuan Zhou , David M. Blei

This paper introduces and analyzes a procedure called Testing-based forward model selection (TBFMS) in linear regression problems. This procedure inductively selects covariates that add predictive power into a working statistical model…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-07 Damian Kozbur

The proliferation of sensor devices monitoring human activity generates voluminous amount of temporal sequences needing to be interpreted and categorized. Moreover, complex behavior detection requires the personalization of multi-sensor…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-02-08 Myriam Abramson

P-hacking is prevalent in reality but absent from classical hypothesis testing theory. As a consequence, significant results are much more common than they are supposed to be when the null hypothesis is in fact true. In this paper, we build…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-05-09 Adam McCloskey , Pascal Michaillat

Property Testing is a formal framework to study the computational power and complexity of sampling from combinatorial objects. A central goal in standard graph property testing is to understand which graph properties are testable with…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2025-09-08 Artur Czumaj , Christian Sohler , Stefan Walzer

Conditional diffusion models serve as the foundation of modern image synthesis and find extensive application in fields like computational biology and reinforcement learning. In these applications, conditional diffusion models incorporate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Hengyu Fu , Zhuoran Yang , Mengdi Wang , Minshuo Chen

Recently, a growing body of research has focused on either optimizing CTR model architectures to better model feature interactions or refining training objectives to aid parameter learning, thereby achieving better predictive performance.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Moyu Zhang , Yun Chen , Yujun Jin , Jinxin Hu , Yu Zhang , Xiaoyi Zeng

Fine-tuning tabular foundation models (TFMs) under data scarcity is challenging, as early stopping on even scarcer validation data often fails to capture true generalization performance. We propose CausalMixFT, a method that enhances…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-22 Magnus Bühler , Lennart Purucker , Frank Hutter

Recent deep-learning models have achieved impressive predictive performance by learning complex functions of many variables, often at the cost of interpretability. This chapter covers recent work aiming to interpret models by attributing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-08-20 Chandan Singh , Wooseok Ha , Bin Yu

Conformal predictors are machine learning algorithms that output prediction sets that have a guarantee of marginal validity for finite samples with minimal distributional assumptions. This is a property that makes conformal predictors…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-03 Anthony Bellotti

Predictive models play a pivotal role in credit risk management, guiding critical decisions through accurate estimation of default probabilities and losses. Extensive research has introduced new modeling techniques, complemented by…

We study the robustness of global post-hoc explanations for predictive models trained on tabular data. Effects of predictor features in black-box supervised learning are an essential diagnostic tool for model debugging and scientific…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-29 Hubert Baniecki , Giuseppe Casalicchio , Bernd Bischl , Przemyslaw Biecek

Neural networks are powerful predictive models, but they provide little insight into the nature of relationships between predictors and outcomes. Although numerous methods have been proposed to quantify the relative contributions of input…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-30 Francesca Mandel , Ian Barnett

This paper proposes a new feature screening method for the multi-response ultrahigh dimensional linear model by empirical likelihood. Through a multivariate moment condition, the empirical likelihood induced ranking statistics can exploit…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-07 Jun Lu , Qinqin Hu , Lu Lin

Fact verification requires validating a claim in the context of evidence. We show, however, that in the popular FEVER dataset this might not necessarily be the case. Claim-only classifiers perform competitively with top evidence-aware…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2019-09-04 Tal Schuster , Darsh J Shah , Yun Jie Serene Yeo , Daniel Filizzola , Enrico Santus , Regina Barzilay

Understanding the effect of a feature vector $x \in \mathbb{R}^d$ on the response value (label) $y \in \mathbb{R}$ is the cornerstone of many statistical learning problems. Ideally, it is desired to understand how a set of collected…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-22 Mohammad Mehrabi , Ryan A. Rossi

Efficiency criteria for conformal prediction, such as \emph{observed fuzziness} (i.e., the sum of p-values associated with false labels), are commonly used to \emph{evaluate} the performance of given conformal predictors. Here, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-15 Nicolo Colombo , Vladimir Vovk

Foundation models for tabular data, like TabPFN, achieve strong performance on small datasets when pre-trained solely on synthetic data. We show that this performance can be significantly boosted by a targeted continued pre-training phase.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-08 Anurag Garg , Muhammad Ali , Noah Hollmann , Lennart Purucker , Samuel Müller , Frank Hutter

Conditional random field (CRF) is an important probabilistic machine learning model for labeling sequential data, which is widely utilized in natural language processing, bioinformatics and computer vision. However, training the CRF model…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-01-07 Yusen Wu , Chao-Hua Yu , Binbin Cai , Sujuan Qin , Fei Gao , Qiaoyan Wen
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