Related papers: A categorical formalization of epistemic uncertain…

Uncertainty quantification has received increasing attention in machine learning in the recent past. In particular, a distinction between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty has been found useful in this regard. The latter refers to the…

The use of emergent constraints to quantify uncertainty for key policy relevant quantities such as Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) has become increasingly widespread in recent years. Many researchers, however, claim that emergent…

We address the problem of uncertainty quantification for graph-structured data, or, more specifically, the problem to quantify the predictive uncertainty in (semi-supervised) node classification. Key questions in this regard concern the…

Mathematical proofs are both paradigms of certainty and some of the most explicitly-justified arguments that we have in the cultural record. Their very explicitness, however, leads to a paradox, because the probability of error grows…

In this paper, we present a formal quantification of epistemic uncertainty induced by numerical solutions of ordinary and partial differential equation models. Numerical solutions of differential equations contain inherent uncertainties due…

We study the problem of quantifying epistemic predictive uncertainty (EPU) -- that is, uncertainty faced at prediction time due to the existence of multiple plausible predictive models -- within the framework of conformal prediction (CP).…

In a standard Bayesian approach to the alpha-factor model for common-cause failure, a precise Dirichlet prior distribution models epistemic uncertainty in the alpha-factors. This Dirichlet prior is then updated with observed data to obtain…

This paper presents a novel numerical method for the hybrid reliability analysis by using the uncertainty theory. Aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty are considered simultaneously in this method. Epistemic uncertainty is…

Systematic uncertainties in high energy physics and astrophysics are often significant contributions to the overall uncertainty in a measurement, in many cases being comparable to the statistical uncertainties. However, consistent…

This paper provides both an introduction to and a detailed overview of the principles and practice of classifier calibration. A well-calibrated classifier correctly quantifies the level of uncertainty or confidence associated with its…

Decision Focused Learning has emerged as a critical paradigm for integrating machine learning with downstream optimisation. Despite its promise, existing methodologies predominantly rely on probabilistic models and focus narrowly on task…

Adequate uncertainty representation and quantification have become imperative in various scientific disciplines, especially in machine learning and artificial intelligence. As an alternative to representing uncertainty via one single…

Ordinal classification problems, where labels exhibit a natural order, are prevalent in high-stakes fields such as medicine and finance. Accurate uncertainty quantification, including the decomposition into aleatoric (inherent variability)…

We study the empirical likelihood approach to construct confidence intervals for the optimal value and the optimality gap of a given solution, henceforth quantify the statistical uncertainty of sample average approximation, for optimization…

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for the use of machine learning in physics, where scientific discoveries depend on validated probabilistic statements. We provide a structured overview of uncertainty quantification in ML for…

Proper quantification of predictive uncertainty is essential for the use of machine learning in safety-critical applications. Various uncertainty measures have been proposed for this purpose, typically claiming superiority over other…

Supporting model interpretability for complex phenomena where annotators can legitimately disagree, such as emotion recognition, is a challenging machine learning task. In this work, we show that explicitly quantifying the uncertainty in…

Beneficial to advanced computing devices, models with massive parameters are increasingly employed to extract more information to enhance the precision in describing and predicting the patterns of objective systems. This phenomenon is…

Humans can learn and reason under substantial uncertainty in a space of infinitely many concepts, including structured relational concepts ("a scene with objects that have the same color") and ad-hoc categories defined through goals…

Advances in architectural design, data availability, and compute have driven remarkable progress in semantic segmentation. Yet, these models often rely on relaxed Bayesian assumptions, omitting critical uncertainty information needed for…