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Unmeasured confounding presents a significant challenge in causal inference from observational studies. Classical approaches often rely on collecting proxy variables, such as instrumental variables. However, in applications where the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-16 Xiaochuan Shi , Dehan Kong , Linbo Wang

Estimating causal interactions in complex dynamical systems is an important problem encountered in many fields of current science. While a theoretical solution for detecting the causal interactions has been previously formulated in the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-01-20 Jakub Kořenek , Jaroslav Hlinka

Causal inference from observational data is crucial for many disciplines such as medicine and economics. However, sharp bounds for causal effects under relaxations of the unconfoundedness assumption (causal sensitivity analysis) are subject…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-17 Dennis Frauen , Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel

Synthetic control (SC) methods are commonly used to estimate the treatment effect on a single treated unit in panel data settings. An SC is a weighted average of control units built to match the treated unit, with weights typically…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-21 Xu Shi , Kendrick Li , Wang Miao , Mengtong Hu , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Causal knowledge is vital for effective reasoning in science, as causal relations, unlike correlations, allow one to reason about the outcomes of interventions. Algorithms that can discover causal relations from observational data are based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-12 Anish Dhir , Ciarán M. Lee

Going beyond correlations, the understanding and identification of causal relationships in observational time series, an important subfield of Causal Discovery, poses a major challenge. The lack of access to a well-defined ground truth for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-19 Andrew R. Lawrence , Marcus Kaiser , Rui Sampaio , Maksim Sipos

While recent debiasing methods for Scene Graph Generation (SGG) have shown impressive performance, these efforts often attribute model bias solely to the long-tail distribution of relationships, overlooking the more profound causes stemming…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-25 Li Liu , Shuzhou Sun , Shuaifeng Zhi , Fan Shi , Zhen Liu , Janne Heikkilä , Yongxiang Liu

Controllable data generation aims to synthesize data by specifying values for target concepts. Achieving this reliably requires modeling the underlying generative factors and their relationships. In real-world scenarios, these factors…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-21 Qilong Zhao , Shiyu Wang , Zeeshan Memon , Yang Qiao , Guangji Bai , Bo Pan , Zhaohui Qin , Liang Zhao

This article considers causal inference for treatment contrasts from a randomized experiment using potential outcomes in a finite population setting. Adopting a Neymanian repeated sampling approach that integrates such causal inference with…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-17 Rahul Mukerjee , Tirthankar Dasgupta , Donald B. Rubin

We develop a method for generating causal post-hoc explanations of black-box classifiers based on a learned low-dimensional representation of the data. The explanation is causal in the sense that changing learned latent factors produces a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-23 Matthew O'Shaughnessy , Gregory Canal , Marissa Connor , Mark Davenport , Christopher Rozell

Causal inference for observational longitudinal studies often requires the accurate estimation of treatment effects on time-to-event outcomes in the presence of time-dependent patient history and time-dependent covariates. To tackle this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-17 Jie Zhu , Blanca Gallego

We introduce CausaLab, a scalable environment for evaluating interactive causal discovery by LLM agents. Unlike prior evaluations, CausaLab evaluates both whether an agent can solve a problem using causal evidence and whether its answer is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Junlin Yang , Dylan Zhang , Xiangchen Song , Qirun Dai , Xiao Liu , Yuen Chen , Aniket Vashishtha , Jing Shi , Chenhao Tan , Hao Peng

This paper studies causal discovery in irregularly sampled time series-a key challenge in risk-sensitive domains like finance, healthcare, and climate science, where missing data and inconsistent sampling frequencies distort causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Weihong Li , Baohong Li , Anpeng Wu , Zhihan Li , Ming Ma , Keting Yin , Kun Kuang

Causal inference from observational data provides strong evidence for the best action in decision-making without performing expensive randomized trials. The effect of an action is usually not identifiable under unobserved confounding, even…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Md Musfiqur Rahman , Ziwei Jiang , Hilaf Hasson , Murat Kocaoglu

Stress testing poses a causal question: how would portfolio credit losses change if the macroeconomy followed an adverse counterfactual path? Yet standard practice remains predictive and might be therefore vulnerable to omitted-variable…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Yu Wang , Xiangchen Liu , Siguang Li

We address the problem of integrating data from multiple, possibly biased, observational and interventional studies, to eventually compute counterfactuals in structural causal models. We start from the case of a single observational dataset…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-01 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , Rafael Cabañas , David Huber

Consider the problem of determining the effect of a compound on a specific cell type. To answer this question, researchers traditionally need to run an experiment applying the drug of interest to that cell type. This approach is not…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-13 Chandler Squires , Dennis Shen , Anish Agarwal , Devavrat Shah , Caroline Uhler

We propose a simple and effective modeling framework for controlled generation of multiple, diverse outputs. We focus on the setting of generating the next sentence of a story given its context. As controllable dimensions, we consider…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-06-03 Lifu Tu , Xiaoan Ding , Dong Yu , Kevin Gimpel

Conditional generative models map input variables to complex, high-dimensional distributions, enabling realistic sample generation in a diverse set of domains. A critical challenge with these models is the absence of calibrated uncertainty,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Qidong Yang , Qianyu Julie Zhu , Jonathan Giezendanner , Youssef Marzouk , Stephen Bates , Sherrie Wang

Understanding the causal effects of text on downstream outcomes is a central task in many applications. Estimating such effects requires researchers to run controlled experiments that systematically vary textual features. While large…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-18 Omri Feldman , Amar Venugopal , Jann Spiess , Amir Feder