Related papers: Does the Market Anticipate? Can it? Should it?
Modern language model deployments must often balance competing objectives, for example, helpfulness versus harmlessness, cost versus accuracy, and reward versus safety. We introduce Conformal Arbitrage, a post hoc framework that learns a…
We consider a financial market in discrete time and study pricing and hedging conditional on the information available up to an arbitrary point in time. In this conditional framework, we determine the structure of arbitrage-free prices.…
We consider thin incomplete financial markets, where traders with heterogeneous preferences and risk exposures have motive to behave strategically regarding the demand schedules they submit, thereby impacting prices and allocations. We…
In this paper we develop a statistical arbitrage trading strategy with two key elements in hi-frequency trading: stop-loss and leverage. We consider, as in Bertram (2009), a mean-reverting process for the security price with proportional…
Optimizing resource allocation with predicted information has shown promising gain in boosting network performance and improving user experience. Earlier research efforts focus on optimizing proactive policies under the assumption of…
We consider a market of risky financial assets whose participants are an informed trader, a representative uninformed trader, and noisy liquidity providers. We prove the existence of a market-clearing equilibrium when the insider…
We derive deterministic criteria for the existence and non-existence of equivalent (local) martingale measures for financial markets driven by multi-dimensional time-inhomogeneous diffusions. Our conditions can be used to construct…
In most cases, insurance contracts are linked to the financial markets, such as through interest rates or equity-linked insurance products. To motivate an evaluation rule in these hybrid markets, Artzner et al. (2022) introduced the notion…
Human dynamics is known to be inhomogeneous and bursty but the detailed understanding of the role of human factors in bursty dynamics is still lacking. In order to investigate their role we devise an agent-based model, where an agent in an…
When human agents come together to make decisions, it is often the case that one human agent has more information than the other. This phenomenon is called information asymmetry and this distorts the market. Often if one human agent intends…
Motivated by online platforms such as job markets, we study an agent choosing from a list of candidates, each with a hidden quality that determines match value. The agent observes only a noisy ranking of the candidates plus a binary signal…
We propose two rational expectation models of transient financial bubbles with heterogeneous arbitrageurs and positive feedbacks leading to self-reinforcing transient stochastic faster-than-exponential price dynamics. As a result of the…
At the ultra high frequency level, the notion of price of an asset is very ambiguous. Indeed, many different prices can be defined (last traded price, best bid price, mid price,...). Thus, in practice, market participants face the problem…
We develop robust pricing and hedging of a weighted variance swap when market prices for a finite number of co--maturing put options are given. We assume the given prices do not admit arbitrage and deduce no-arbitrage bounds on the weighted…
Prescriptive business process monitoring provides decision support to process managers on when and how to adapt an ongoing business process to prevent or mitigate an undesired process outcome. We focus on the problem of automatically…
It is shown that delta hedging provides the optimal trading strategy in terms of minimal required initial capital to replicate a given terminal payoff in a continuous-time Markovian context. This holds true in market models where no…
We prove the existence of an equilibrium in a model with transaction costs and price impact where two agents are incentivized to trade towards a target. The two types of frictions -- price impact and transaction costs -- lead the agents to…
Dealers make money by providing liquidity to clients but face flow uncertainty and thus price risk. They can efficiently skew their prices and wait for clients to mitigate risk (internalization), or trade with other dealers in the open…
We show that strategies implemented in automatic theorem proving involve an interesting tradeoff between execution speed, proving speedup/computational time and usefulness of information. We advance formal definitions for these concepts by…
We solve the problem of super-hedging European or Asian options for discrete-time financial market models where executable prices are uncertain. The risky asset prices are not described by single-valued processes but measurable selections…