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Related papers: Does the Market Anticipate? Can it? Should it?

200 papers

The capitalization-weighted total relative variation $\sum_{i=1}^d \int_0^\cdot \mu_i (t) \mathrm{d} \langle \log \mu_i \rangle (t)$ in an equity market consisting of a fixed number $d$ of assets with capitalization weights $\mu_i (\cdot)$…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-08-23 E. Robert Fernholz , Ioannis Karatzas , Johannes Ruf

Equity premium, the surplus returns of stocks over bonds, has been an enduring puzzle. While numerous prior works approach the problem assuming the utility of money is invariant across contexts, our approach implies that in efficient…

General Economics · Economics 2024-01-18 B. N. Kausik

No-arbitrage asset pricing characterizes valuation through the existence of equivalent martingale measures relative to a filtration and a class of admissible trading strategies. In practice, pricing is performed across multiple asset…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-01-21 Alejandro Rodriguez Dominguez

Analysis of efficiency of outcomes in game theoretic settings has been a main item of study at the intersection of economics and computer science. The notion of the price of anarchy takes a worst-case stance to efficiency analysis,…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2017-07-05 Darrell Hoy , Denis Nekipelov , Vasilis Syrgkanis

When a dataset contains forecasts on unscheduled events, such as natural catastrophes, outcomes may be censored or ``hidden'' since some events have not yet occurred. This article finds that this can lead to a selection bias which affects…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-09 Niklas V. Lehmann

The topics treated in this thesis are inherently two-fold. The first part considers the problem of a market maker optimally setting bid/ask quotes over a finite time horizon, to maximize her expected utility. The intensities of the orders…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-09-15 Diego Zabaljauregui

When eliciting forecasts from a group of experts, it is important to reward predictions so that market participants are incentivized to tell the truth. Existing mechanisms partially accomplish this but remain susceptible to groups of…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-11-26 Jack Edwards

Empirical evidence suggests that even the most competitive markets are not strictly efficient. Price histories can be used to predict near future returns with a probability better than random chance. Many markets can be considered as {\it…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Yi-Cheng Zhang

Digital marketplaces processing billions of dollars annually represent critical infrastructure in sociotechnical ecosystems, yet their performance optimization lacks principled measurement frameworks that can inform algorithmic governance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-27 Thomas Asikis , Heinrich H. Nax

This paper diverges from previous literature by considering the utility maximization problem in the context of investors having the freedom to actively acquire additional information to mitigate estimation risk. We derive closed-form value…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-05-16 Zongxia Liang , Qi Ye

This work studies equilibrium problems under uncertainty where firms maximize their profits in a robust way when selling their output. Robust optimization plays an increasingly important role when best guaranteed objective values are to be…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-02-24 Christian Biefel , Frauke Liers , Jan Rolfes , Lars Schewe , Gregor Zöttl

We examine the trade-off between the provision of incentives to exert costly effort (ex-ante moral hazard) and the incentives needed to prevent the agent from manipulating the profit observed by the principal (ex-post moral hazard).…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2021-12-14 Jean-Gabriel Lauzier

We study the most famous example of a large financial market: the Arbitrage Pricing Model, where investors can trade in a one-period setting with countably many assets admitting a factor structure. We consider the problem of maximising…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-06 Laurence Carassus , Miklos Rasonyi

Peters (2011a) defined an optimal leverage which maximizes the time-average growth rate of an investment held at constant leverage. It was hypothesized that this optimal leverage is attracted to 1, such that, e.g., leveraging an investment…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-06-12 Ole Peters , Alexander Adamou

A perfectly rational decision-maker chooses the best action with the highest utility gain from a set of possible actions. The optimality principles that describe such decision processes do not take into account the computational costs of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-12-25 Jordi Grau-Moya , Daniel A. Braun

Appropriate decisions depend on information gathered beforehand, yet such information is often obtained through intermediaries with biased preferences. Motivated by settings such as testing and recertification in organ transplantation, we…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-02-17 Andres Espitia , Edwin Muñoz-Rodríguez

We consider portfolio selection under nonparametric $\alpha$-maxmin ambiguity in the neighbourhood of a reference distribution. We show strict concavity of the portfolio problem under ambiguity aversion. Implied demand functions are…

General Economics · Economics 2022-06-22 Michail Anthropelos , Paul Schneider

We study the value of stochastic predictions in online optimal control with random disturbances. Prior work provides performance guarantees based on prediction error but ignores the stochastic dependence between predictions and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-06-06 Yiheng Lin , Christopher Yeh , Zaiwei Chen , Adam Wierman

Most work in mechanism design assumes that buyers are risk neutral; some considers risk aversion arising due to a non-linear utility for money. Yet behavioral studies have established that real agents exhibit risk attitudes which cannot be…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2018-03-13 Shuchi Chawla , Kira Goldner , J. Benjamin Miller , Emmanouil Pountourakis

Sharp asymptotic lower bounds of the expected quadratic variation of discretization error in stochastic integration are given. The theory relies on inequalities for the kurtosis and skewness of a general random variable which are themselves…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-04-04 Masaaki Fukasawa