Related papers: Martingale Posterior Predictive Coherence: Hausdor…

The correct inferential object in claims reserving is the conditional predictive distribution $p(R \mid \mathcal{D}, \hat\theta)$, where $\mathcal{D}$ is the observed triangle held fixed. We refer to this as the conditioning principle. All…

A finite form of de Finetti's representation theorem is established using elementary information-theoretic tools: The distribution of the first $k$ random variables in an exchangeable binary vector of length $n\geq k$ is close to a mixture…

We derive a general multivariate theory for realised characteristics of `model-free discretisation-invariant swaps', so-called because the standard no-arbitrage assumption of martingale forward prices is sufficient to derive fair-value swap…

In this paper, we consider option pricing in a framework of the fractional Heston-type model with $H>1/2$. As it is impossible to obtain an explicit formula for the expectation $\mathbb E f(S_T)$ in this case, where $S_T$ is the asset price…

Suppose we observe an infinite series of coin flips $X_1,X_2,\ldots$, and wish to sequentially test the null that these binary random variables are exchangeable. Nonnegative supermartingales (NSMs) are a workhorse of sequential inference,…

We develop and implement a novel fast bootstrap for dependent data. Our scheme is based on the i.i.d. resampling of the smoothed moment indicators. We characterize the class of parametric and semi-parametric estimation problems for which…

Let $p(\cdot)$ be a measurable function defined on a probability space satisfying $0<p_-:={\rm ess}\inf_{x\in \Omega}p(x)\leq {\rm ess}\sup_{x\in\Omega}p(x)=:p_+<\infty$. We investigate five types of martingale Hardy spaces $H_{p(\cdot)}$…

A nonmonotonic logic of thresholded generalizations is presented. Given propositions A and B from a language L and a positive integer k, the thresholded generalization A=>B{k} means that the conditional probability P(B|A) falls short of one…

Let \tau(.) be the Ramanujan \tau-function, and let k be a positive integer such that \tau(n) is not 0 for n=1,...,[k/2]. (This is known to be true for k < 10^{23}, and, conjecturally, for all k.) Further, let s be a permutation of the set…

We recall some of the history of the information-theoretic approach to deriving core results in probability theory and indicate parts of the recent resurgence of interest in this area with current progress along several interesting…

What is the connection of random matrices with integrable systems? Is this connection really useful? The answer to these questions leads to a new and unifying approach to the theory of random matrices. Introducing an appropriate time…

Simple Monte Carlo is a versatile computational method with a convergence rate of $O(n^{-1/2})$. It can be used to estimate the means of random variables whose distributions are unknown. Bernoulli random variables, $Y$, are widely used to…

Importance sampling is a popular technique in Bayesian inference: by reweighting samples drawn from a proposal distribution we are able to obtain samples and moment estimates from a Bayesian posterior over latent variables. Recent work,…

A new approach for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and selection is proposed, based on the mixture model approach for hypothesis testing in Kaniav et al., 2014. Inheriting from the good properties of this approach, it extends BMA to cases…

While statistics focusses on hypothesis testing and on estimating (properties of) the true sampling distribution, in machine learning the performance of learning algorithms on future data is the primary issue. In this paper we bridge the…

We consider a mixed variational formulation recently proposed for the coupling of the Brinkman--Forchheimer and Darcy equations and develop the first reliable and efficient residual-based a posteriori error estimator for the 2D version of…

Let $n$ be a large integer and $M_n$ be a random $n$ by $n$ matrix whose entries are i.i.d. Bernoulli random variables (each entry is $\pm 1$ with probability 1/2). We show that the probability that $M_n$ is singular is at most $(3/4…

We characterize the class of exchangeable feature allocations assigning probability $V_{n,k}\prod_{l=1}^{k}W_{m_{l}}U_{n-m_{l}}$ to a feature allocation of $n$ individuals, displaying $k$ features with counts $(m_{1},\ldots,m_{k})$ for…

Data analysis in HEP experiments often uses binned likelihood from data and finite Monte Carlo sample. Statistical uncertainty of Monte Carlo sample has been introduced in Frequentist Inference in some literatures, but they are not suitable…

Let $h:[0,1]\to\mathbb{R}$ be $C^2$ and such that $\sup_{[0,1]} h''<0$. For a (large) positive integer $n$, set $h_n(k) = n h(k/n)$ for any $k\in\{0,\dots,n\}$. We consider a random walk $(S_k)_{k\geq 0}$ with i.i.d.\ centred increments…