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We consider the Bayesian analysis of models in which the unknown distribution of the outcomes is specified up to a set of conditional moment restrictions. The nonparametric exponentially tilted empirical likelihood function is constructed…
Random paths are time continuous interpolations of random walks. By using Littelmann path model, we associate to each irreducible highest weight module of a Kac Moody algebra g a random path W. Under suitable hypotheses, we make explicit…
Invariance times are stopping times $\tau$ such that local martingales with respect to some reduced filtration and an equivalently changed probability measure, stopped before $\tau$ , are local martingales with respect to the original model…
We improve and subsume the conditions of Johansson and \"Oberg [18] and Berbee [2] for uniqueness of a g-measure, i.e., a stationary distribution for chains with complete connections. In addition, we prove that these unique g-measures have…
Questions on random matrices and on non-intersecting Brownian motions have led to the study of moment matrices with regard to several weights. The purpose of this paper is to show that the determinants of such moment matrices satisfy, upon…
Given a sequence \xi_1, \xi_2,... of X-valued, exchangeable random elements, let q(\xi^(n)) and p_m(\xi^(n)) stand for posterior and predictive distribution, respectively, given \xi^(n) = (\xi_1,..., \xi_n). We provide an upper bound for…
In the setting of stochastic Volterra equations, and in particular rough volatility models, we show that conditional expectations are the unique classical solutions to path-dependent PDEs. The latter arise from the functional It\^o formula…
Most of the consistency analyses of Bayesian procedures for variable selection in regression refer to pairwise consistency, that is, consistency of Bayes factors. However, variable selection in regression is carried out in a given class of…
For sequential betting games, Kelly's theory, aimed at maximization of the logarithmic growth of one's account value, involves optimization of the so-called betting fraction $K$. In this Letter, we extend the classical formulation to allow…
Bayes' theorem incorporates distinct types of information through the likelihood and prior. Direct observations of state variables enter the likelihood and modify posterior probabilities through consistent updating. Information in terms of…
Let $A$ be a limsup random fractal with indices $\gamma_1, ~\gamma_2 ~$and $\delta$ on $[0,1]^d$. We determine the hitting probability $\mathbb{P}(A\cap G)$ for any analytic set $G$ with the condition $(\star)$$\colon$ $\dim_{\rm…
We consider upper exponential bounds for the probability of the event that an absolute deviation of sample mean from mathematical expectation p is bigger comparing with some ordered level epsilon. These bounds include 2 coefficients {alpha,…
Models phrased though moment conditions are central to much of modern inference. Here these moment conditions are embedded within a nonparametric Bayesian setup. Handling such a model is not probabilistically straightforward as the…
We construct families of rational functions $f \colon \bP^1_k \to \bP^1_k$ of degree $d \geq 2$ over a perfect field $k$ whose associated fixed-point processes fail to be martingales. Conversely, for any normal variety $X \subset…
Lions and Musiela (2007) give sufficient conditions to verify when a stochastic exponential of a continuous local martingale is a martingale or a uniformly integrable martingale. Blei and Engelbert (2009) and Mijatovi\'c and Urusov (2012c)…
It is shown that under standard hypotheses, if stochastic approximation iterates remain tight, they converge with probability one to what their o.d.e. limit suggests. A simple test for tightness (and therefore a.s. convergence) is provided.…
Based on the seminal work of Hutchinson, we investigate properties of {\em $\alpha$-weighted Cantor measures} whose support is a fractal contained in the unit interval. Here, $\alpha$ is a vector of nonnegative weights summing to $1$, and…
Particles labelled $1,...,n$ are initially arranged in increasing order. Subsequently, each pair of neighboring particles that is currently in increasing order swaps according to a Poisson process of rate 1. We analyze the asymptotic…
In the context of the expected-posterior prior (EPP) approach to Bayesian variable selection in linear models, we combine ideas from power-prior and unit-information-prior methodologies to simultaneously produce a minimally-informative…
Multiple orthogonal polynomials with respect to two weights on the step-line are considered. A connection between different dual spectral matrices, one banded (recursion matrix) and one Hessenberg, respectively, and the Gauss-Borel…