Related papers: Targeted Local Projections
By treating intervals as inseparable sets, this paper proposes sparse machine learning regressions for high-dimensional interval-valued time series. With LASSO or adaptive LASSO techniques, we develop a penalized minimum distance…
A novel IV estimation method, that we term Locally Trimmed LS (LTLS), is developed which yields estimators with (mixed) Gaussian limit distributions in situations where the data may be weakly or strongly persistent. In particular, we allow…
Volatility forecasts are key inputs in financial analysis. While lasso based forecasts have shown to perform well in many applications, their use to obtain volatility forecasts has not yet received much attention in the literature. Lasso…
We revisit macroeconomic time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs), whose persistent coefficients may adapt too slowly to large, abrupt shifts such as those during major crises. We explore the performance of an…
For the problem of high-dimensional sparse linear regression, it is known that an $\ell_0$-based estimator can achieve a $1/n$ "fast" rate on the prediction error without any conditions on the design matrix, whereas in absence of…
We study a multivariate regression discontinuity design in which treatment is assigned by crossing a boundary in the space of multiple running variables. We document that the existing bandwidth selector is suboptimal for a multivariate…
How best to model structurally heterogeneous processes is a foundational question in the social, health and behavioral sciences. Recently, Fisher et al., (2022) introduced the multi-VAR approach for simultaneously estimating…
Visual Autoregressive (VAR) modeling approach for image generation proposes autoregressive processing across hierarchical scales, decoding multiple tokens per scale in parallel. This method achieves high-quality generation while…
I introduce a high-dimensional Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) framework designed to estimate the effects of conventional monetary policy shocks. The model captures structural shocks as latent factors, enabling computationally…
Disagreement remains on what the target estimand should be for population-adjusted indirect treatment comparisons. This debate is of central importance for policy-makers and applied practitioners in health technology assessment.…
Although the sparse multinomial logistic regression (SMLR) has provided a useful tool for sparse classification, it suffers from inefficacy in dealing with high dimensional features and manually set initial regressor values. This has…
High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models are important tools for the analysis of multivariate time series. This paper focuses on high-dimensional time series and on the different regularized estimation procedures proposed for…
We propose a sigmoidal approximation for the value-at-risk (that we call SigVaR) and we use this approximation to tackle nonlinear programs (NLPs) with chance constraints. We prove that the approximation is conservative and that the level…
Sparse model estimation is a topic of high importance in modern data analysis due to the increasing availability of data sets with a large number of variables. Another common problem in applied statistics is the presence of outliers in the…
This work concerns estimation of multidimensional nonlinear regression models using multilayer perceptron (MLP). The main problem with such model is that we have to know the covariance matrix of the noise to get optimal estimator. however…
Training Large Language Models (LLMs) for reasoning tasks is increasingly driven by Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), where Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) provides a principled framework for stable policy updates.…
We study efficiency improvements in randomized experiments for estimating a vector of potential outcome means using regression adjustment (RA) when there are more than two treatment levels. We show that linear RA which estimates separate…
We propose conformal hyperrectangular prediction regions for multi-target regression. We propose split conformal prediction algorithms for both point and quantile regression to form hyperrectangular prediction regions, which allow for easy…
The vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been widely used for modeling temporal dependence in a multivariate time series. For large (and even moderate) dimensions, the number of AR coefficients can be prohibitively large, resulting in…
We introduce the spike-and-slab group lasso (SSGL) for Bayesian estimation and variable selection in linear regression with grouped variables. We further extend the SSGL to sparse generalized additive models (GAMs), thereby introducing the…