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This work develops a measurement-driven and model-based formal verification approach, applicable to systems with partly unknown dynamics. We provide a principled method, grounded on reachability analysis and on Bayesian inference, to…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-09-14 Sofie Haesaert , Paul M. J. Van den Hof , Alessandro Abate

Quantifying and reducing uncertainty in Earth system model parameterizations is essential to improving their reliability in decision-making. Forward uncertainty propagation is used to derive parameter sensitivity but requires physically…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-22 Ethan YoungIn Shin , Baris Kale , Michael F. Howland

A common approach to assess the performance of fire insulation panels is the component additive method (CAM). The parameters of the CAM are based on the temperature-dependent thermal material properties of the panels. These material…

Applications · Statistics 2020-01-08 P. -R. Wagner , R. Fahrni , M. Klippel , A. Frangi , B. Sudret

Thermoacoustic instabilities in gas turbines and aeroengine combustors falls within the category of complex systems. They can be described phenomenologically using nonlinear stochastic differential equations, which constitute the grounds…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2016-12-09 Edouard Boujo , Alexey Denisov , Bruno Schuermans , Nicolas Noiray

In the Bayesian approach, the a priori knowledge about the input of a mathematical model is described via a probability measure. The joint distribution of the unknown input and the data is then conditioned, using Bayes' formula, giving rise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-15 Sebastian J. Vollmer

This paper considers the problem of estimating the delays of a weighted superposition of pulses, called stream of pulses, in a noisy environment. We show that the delays can be estimated using a tractable convex optimization problem with a…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-06-29 Tamir Bendory , Avinoam Bar-Zion , Dan Adam , Shai Dekel , Arie Feuer

Parametric prediction error methods constitute a classical approach to the identification of linear dynamic systems with excellent large-sample properties. A more recent regularized approach, inspired by machine learning and Bayesian…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-10-12 Johan Wågberg , Dave Zachariah , Thomas B. Schön

In networks of dynamic systems, one challenge is to identify the interconnection structure on the basis of measured signals. Inspired by a Bayesian approach in [1], in this paper, we explore a Bayesian model selection method for identifying…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2019-03-18 Shengling Shi , Giulio Bottegal , Paul M. J. Van den Hof

This paper presents a machine learning framework for Bayesian systems identification from noisy, sparse and irregular observations of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed method takes advantage of recent developments in differentiable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-21 Yibo Yang , Mohamed Aziz Bhouri , Paris Perdikaris

System identification is of special interest in science and engineering. This article is concerned with a system identification problem arising in stochastic dynamic systems, where the aim is to estimate the parameters of a system along…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-27 Christos Merkatas , Simo Särkkä

The optimal management of a building's microclimate to satisfy the occupants' needs and objectives in terms of comfort, energy efficiency, and costs is particularly challenging. This complexity arises from the non-linear, time-dependent…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-20 Javier Penuela , Sahar Moghimian Hoosh , Ilia Kamyshev , Aldo Bischi , Henni Ouerdane

Plasma-terminating disruptions in future fusion reactors may result in conversion of the initial current to a relativistic runaway electron beam. Validated predictive tools are required to optimize the scenarios and mitigation actuators to…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2022-08-04 Aaro Järvinen , Tünde Fülöp , Eero Hirvijoki , Mathias Hoppe , Adam Kit , Jan Åström

Exposure assessment models are deterministic models derived from physical-chemical laws. In real workplace settings, chemical concentration measurements can be noisy and indirectly measured. In addition, inference on important parameters…

Applications · Statistics 2018-07-09 Nada Abdalla , Sudipto Banerjee , Gurumurthy Ramachandran , Susan Arnold

Bayesian model selection provides a powerful and mathematically transparent framework to tackle hypothesis testing, such as detection tests of gravitational waves emitted during the coalescence of binary systems using ground-based laser…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2009-11-13 John Veitch , Alberto Vecchio

A new method is proposed for estimating the rate of fugitive emissions of particulate matter from multiple time-dependent sources via measurements of deposition and concentration. We cast this source inversion problem within the Bayesian…

Applications · Statistics 2016-11-01 Bamdad Hosseini , John M. Stockie

Calibration or parameter identification is used with computational mechanics models related to observed data of the modeled process to find model parameters such that good similarity between model prediction and observation is achieved. We…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-12-26 Harald Willmann , Jonas Nitzler , Sebastian Brandstaeter , Wolfgang A. Wall

A fully Bayesian treatment of complicated predictive models (such as deep neural networks) would enable rigorous uncertainty quantification and the automation of higher-level tasks including model selection. However, the intractability of…

We introduce a Bayesian system identification (SysID) framework for jointly estimating robot's state trajectories and physical parameters with high accuracy. It embeds physically consistent inverse dynamics, contact and loop-closure…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-02-19 Sergi Martinez , Steve Tonneau , Carlos Mastalli

Inverse problems are of great importance in astrophysics for deriving information about the physical characteristics of hot optically thin plasma sources from their EUV and X-ray spectra. We describe and test an iterative method developed…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2014-01-24 F. F. Goryaev , S. Parenti , A. M. Urnov , S. N. Oparin , J. -F. Hochedez , F. Reale

The adaptive identification of the impulse response of an innovation filter is considered. The impulse response is a finite sum of known basis functions with unknown coefficients. These unknown coefficients are estimated using a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-18 Andrew P. Mullhaupt , Kurt S. Riedel