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In this paper we propose a flexible class of multivariate nonlinear non-Gaussian state space models, based on copulas. More precisely, we assume that the observation equation and the state equation are defined by copula families that are…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-04 Alexander Kreuzer , Luciana Dalla Valle , Claudia Czado

Exploring the dependence between covariates across distributions is crucial for many applications. Copulas serve as a powerful tool for modeling joint variable dependencies and have been effectively applied in various practical contexts due…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-09 Sumin Wang , Chenxian Huang , Yongdao Zhou , Min-Qian Liu

We consider the accuracy of an approximate posterior distribution in nonparametric regression problems by combining posterior distributions computed on subsets of the data defined by the locations of the independent variables. We show that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-29 Botond Szabo , Amine Hadji , Aad van der Vaart

We introduce a class of scalable Bayesian hierarchical models for the analysis of massive geostatistical datasets. The underlying idea combines ideas on high-dimensional geostatistics by partitioning the spatial domain and modeling the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-09 Michele Peruzzi , Sudipto Banerjee , Andrew O. Finley

Projections of future climate change rely heavily on climate models, and combining climate models through a multi-model ensemble is both more accurate than a single climate model and valuable for uncertainty quantification. However,…

Applications · Statistics 2020-02-27 Huang Huang , Dorit Hammerling , Bo Li , Richard Smith

Scientific discoveries are increasingly constrained by limited storage space and I/O capacities. For time-series simulations and experiments, their data often need to be decimated over timesteps to accommodate storage and I/O limitations.…

Sampling conditional distributions is a fundamental task for Bayesian inference and density estimation. Generative models, such as normalizing flows and generative adversarial networks, characterize conditional distributions by learning a…

To model high dimensional data, Gaussian methods are widely used since they remain tractable and yield parsimonious models by imposing strong assumptions on the data. Vine copulas are more flexible by combining arbitrary marginal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-09-18 Dominik Müller , Claudia Czado

We propose a unified, few-step generative modeling framework based on \emph{cumulative flow maps} for long-range transport in probability space, inspired by flow-map techniques for physical transport and dynamics. At its core is a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-06 Zhiqi Li , Duowen Chen , Yuchen Sun , Bo Zhu

Machine learning models have shown great success in predicting weather up to two weeks ahead, outperforming process-based benchmarks. However, existing approaches mostly focus on the prediction task, and do not incorporate the necessary…

Accurate weather and climate prediction relies on data assimilation (DA), which estimates the Earth system state by integrating observations with models. While exascale computing has significantly advanced earth simulation, scalable and…

Climate change poses significant challenges for accurate climate modeling due to the complexity and variability of non-Gaussian climate systems. To address the complexities of non-Gaussian systems in climate modeling, this thesis proposes a…

Applications · Statistics 2024-06-28 Yunjin Tong

The next generation of Department of Energy supercomputers will be capable of exascale computation. For these machines, far more computation will be possible than that which can be saved to disk. As a result, users will be unable to rely on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-23 Michael Grosskopf , Kellin Rumsey , Ayan Biswas , Earl Lawrence

Data assimilation of observational data into full atmospheric states is essential for weather forecast model initialization. Recently, methods for deep generative data assimilation have been proposed which allow for using new input data…

This paper addresses the practical challenge in Entropic Optimal Transport (EOT) where the underlying ground cost function is typically latent and unobserved. Rather than assuming a fixed geometric cost, we adopt a data-driven approach…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-13 Antoine Debouchage , Xiaozhen Wang , Zhenjie Ren , Francois Buet-Golfouse

Cloud computing offers an opportunity to run compute-resource intensive climate models at scale by parallelising model runs such that datasets useful to the exoplanet community can be produced efficiently. To better understand the…

We propose a new generative model of projected cosmic mass density maps inferred from weak gravitational lensing observations of distant galaxies (weak lensing mass maps). We construct the model based on a neural style transfer so that it…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2024-05-24 Masato Shirasaki , Shiro Ikeda

A transition to renewable energy is needed to mitigate climate change. In Europe, this transition has been led by wind energy, which is one of the fastest growing energy sources. However, energy demand and production are sensitive to…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-03-01 Paulina Tedesco , Alex Lenkoski , Hannah C. Bloomfield , Jana Sillmann

The superposition of data sets with internal parametric self-similarity is a longstanding and widespread technique for the analysis of many types of experimental data across the physical sciences. Typically, this superposition is performed…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-06-01 Kyle R. Lennon , Gareth H. McKinley , James W. Swan

Gaussian process (GP) models provide a powerful tool for prediction but are computationally prohibitive using large data sets. In such scenarios, one has to resort to approximate methods. We derive an approximation based on a composite…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-02 Xiuming Liu , Dave Zachariah , Edith C. H. Ngai
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