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AI is poised to revolutionize telecommunication networks by boosting efficiency, automation, and decision-making. However, the black-box nature of most AI models introduces substantial risk, possibly deterring adoption by network operators.…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2025-04-29 Osvaldo Simeone , Sangwoo Park , Matteo Zecchin

AI deployment in sensitive domains such as health care, credit, employment, and criminal justice is often treated as unsafe to authorize until model internals can be explained. This often leads to an excessive reliance on mechanistic…

Estimating the test performance of software AI-based medical devices under distribution shifts is crucial for evaluating the safety, efficiency, and usability prior to clinical deployment. Due to the nature of regulated medical device…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-14 Charles Lu , Syed Rakin Ahmed , Praveer Singh , Jayashree Kalpathy-Cramer

We introduce an intuitive method to test the robustness (stability and explainability) of any black-box LLM in real-time via its local deviation from harmoniticity, denoted as $\gamma$. To the best of our knowledge this is the first…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-26 Nicholas S. Kersting , Mohammad Rahman , Suchismitha Vedala , Yang Wang

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable progress in multiple-choice question answering (MCQA), but their inherent unreliability, such as hallucination and overconfidence, limits their application in high-risk domains. To address…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Guang Yang , Xinyang Liu

Foundation model reliability assessment typically requires thousands of evaluation examples, making it computationally expensive and time-consuming for real-world deployment. We introduce microprobe, a novel approach that achieves…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-12-25 Aayam Bansal , Ishaan Gangwani

Self-testing refers to the fact that, in some quantum devices, both states and measurements can be assessed in a black-box scenario, on the sole basis of the observed statistics, i.e. without reference to any prior device calibration. Only…

LLMs enable qualitative coding at large scale, but assessing reliability remains challenging where human experts seldom agree. We investigate confidence-diversity calibration as a quality assessment framework for accessible coding tasks…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-19 Zhilong Zhao , Yindi Liu

As artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning (ML) gain widespread adoption, practitioners are increasingly seeking means to quantify and control the risk these systems incur. This challenge is especially salient when such systems have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-06 Drew Prinster , Samuel Stanton , Anqi Liu , Suchi Saria

Large Language Models (LLMs) show promise for automated grading, but their outputs can be unreliable. Rather than improving grading accuracy directly, we address a complementary problem: \textit{predicting when an LLM grader is likely to be…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-01 Robinson Ferrer , Damla Turgut , Zhongzhou Chen , Shashank Sonkar

Recent proliferation of powerful AI systems has created a strong need for capabilities that help users to calibrate trust in those systems. As AI systems grow in scale, information required to evaluate their trustworthiness becomes less…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Scott T Steinmetz , Asmeret Naugle , Paul Schutte , Matt Sweitzer , Alex Washburne , Lisa Linville , Daniel Krofcheck , Michal Kucer , Samuel Myren

Artificial intelligence now decides who receives a loan, who is flagged for criminal investigation, and whether an autonomous vehicle brakes in time. Governments have responded: the EU AI Act, the NIST Risk Management Framework, and the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-24 Natan Levy , Gadi Perl

We study how people trade off accuracy when using AI-powered tools in professional versus personal contexts for adoption purposes, the determinants of those trade-offs, and how users cope when AI/apps are unavailable. Because modern AI…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Gaston Besanson , Federico Todeschini

We adapt split conformal prediction and adaptive conformal inference (ACI) to continuous AI agent evaluation, providing distribution-free coverage guarantees for forecasted quality scores. Conformal intervals achieve calibration error below…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Yuxuan Gao , Megan Wang , Yi Ling Yu

As API access becomes a primary interface to large language models (LLMs), users often interact with black-box systems that offer little transparency into the deployed model. To reduce costs or maliciously alter model behaviors, API…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2026-04-10 Xiaoyuan Zhu , Yaowen Ye , Tianyi Qiu , Hanlin Zhu , Sijun Tan , Ajraf Mannan , Jonathan Michala , Raluca Ada Popa , Willie Neiswanger

When does a large language model (LLM) know what it does not know? Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides measures of uncertainty, such as an estimate of the confidence in an LLM's generated output, and is therefore increasingly…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Debarun Bhattacharjya , Balaji Ganesan , Junkyu Lee , Radu Marinescu , Katsiaryna Mirylenka , Michael Glass , Xiao Shou

Calibration, which establishes the correlation between accuracy and model confidence, is important for LLM development. We design three off-the-shelf calibration methods based on self-consistency (Wang et al., 2022) for math reasoning…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-18 Ante Wang , Linfeng Song , Ye Tian , Baolin Peng , Lifeng Jin , Haitao Mi , Jinsong Su , Dong Yu

This work is concerned with conformal prediction in contemporary applications (including generative AI) where a black-box model has been trained on data that are not accessible to the user. Mirroring split-conformal inference, we design a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-28 Jungeum Kim , Sean O'Hagan , Veronika Rockova

For any black-box model, conformal prediction (CP) returns prediction sets guaranteed to include the true label with high adjustable probability. Robust CP (RCP) extends the guarantee to the worst case noise up to a pre-defined magnitude.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-09 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Mohammad Sadegh Akhondzadeh , Aleksandar Bojchevski

Estimating the confidence of large language model (LLM) outputs is essential for real-world applications requiring high user trust. Black-box uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods, relying solely on model API access, have gained…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-30 Quan Xiao , Debarun Bhattacharjya , Balaji Ganesan , Radu Marinescu , Katsiaryna Mirylenka , Nhan H Pham , Michael Glass , Junkyu Lee
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