Related papers: Tipping points in complex ecological systems

With rising global temperatures Earth's tipping elements are becoming increasingly more vulnerable to crossing their critical thresholds. The reaching of such tipping points does not only impact other tipping elements through their…

Tipping elements in the Earth System receive increased scientific attention over the recent years due to their nonlinear behavior and the risks of abrupt state changes. While being stable over a large range of parameters, a tipping element…

Climate tipping points are critical thresholds in Earth's climate system where a small change can cause abrupt and potentially irreversible shifts towards a new state. Tipping points in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)…

The potential for complex systems to exhibit tipping points in which an equilibrium state undergoes a sudden and often irreversible shift is well established, but prediction of these events using standard forecast modeling techniques is…

Using in a simple way the theory of non linear dynamical systems, we show that increasing climatic instabilities may be a qualitative warning sign for the occurrence of a nearby bifurcation, yielding a discontinuous and sudden climate…

Abrupt shifts in ecosystems, brains, markets, and climate are often diagnosed as signs of approaching a tipping point, i.e. a critical bifurcation where stability is lost. Here we reveal a broader and more deceptive mechanism:…

Tipping points have been shown to be ubiquitous, both in models and empirically in a range of physical and biological systems. The question of how tipping points cascade through systems has been less well studied and is an important one. A…

Current techniques for predicting climate change are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical modeling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called "complex system", made up of a large number of interacting elements. We…

Many systems on our planet are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across a "tipping point," such as mass extinctions in ecological networks, cascading failures in infrastructure systems,…

Many complex dynamical systems in the real world, including ecological, climate, financial, and power-grid systems, often show critical transitions, or tipping points, in which the system's dynamics suddenly transit into a qualitatively…

Tipping points are critical thresholds of parameters where tiny perturbations can lead to abrupt and large qualitative changes in the systems. Many real-world systems that exhibit tipping behavior can be represented as networks of…

In nonlinear dynamical systems, tipping refers to a critical transition from one steady state to another, typically catastrophic, steady state, often resulting from a saddle-node bifurcation. Recently, the machine-learning framework of…

Societal transformations are necessary to address critical global challenges, such as mitigation of anthropogenic climate change and reaching UN sustainable development goals. Recently, social tipping processes have received increased…

Tipping points (TP) in climate sub-systems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other…

A variation in the environment of a system, such as the temperature, the concentration of a chemical solution or the appearance of a magnetic field, may lead to a drift in one of the parameters. If the parameter crosses a bifurcation point,…

Tipping points are abrupt, drastic, and often irreversible changes in the evolution of non-stationary and chaotic dynamical systems. For instance, increased greenhouse gas concentrations are predicted to lead to drastic decreases in low…

This paper draws distinctions among various concepts related to tipping points, robustness, path dependence, and other properties of system dynamics. For each concept a formal definition is provided that utilizes Markov model…

A climate state close to a tipping point will have a degenerate linear response to perturbations, which can be associated with extreme values of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this paper we contrast linearized…

Bifurcations can cause dynamical systems with slowly varying parameters to transition to far-away attractors. The terms ``critical transition'' or ``tipping point'' have been used to describe this situation. Critical transitions have been…

Various subsystems of the Earth system may undergo critical transitions by passing a so-called tipping point, under sustained changes to forcing. For example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is of particular…