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The LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA catalog has been analyzed with an abundance of different population models due to theoretical uncertainty in the formation of gravitational-wave sources. To expedite model exploration, we introduce an efficient and…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-06-30 Matthew Mould , Noah E. Wolfe , Salvatore Vitale

We apply neural posterior estimation for fast-and-accurate hierarchical Bayesian inference of gravitational wave populations. We use a normalizing flow to estimate directly the population hyper-parameters from a collection of individual…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2024-04-09 Konstantin Leyde , Stephen R. Green , Alexandre Toubiana , Jonathan Gair

From catalogs of gravitational-wave transients, the population-level properties of their sources and the formation channels of merging compact binaries can be constrained. However, astrophysical conclusions can be biased by misspecification…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-10-08 Noah E. Wolfe , Matthew Mould , Jack Heinzel , Salvatore Vitale

Bayesian inference is the workhorse of gravitational-wave astronomy, for example, determining the mass and spins of merging black holes, revealing the neutron star equation of state, and unveiling the population properties of compact…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2019-09-04 Colm Talbot , Rory Smith , Eric Thrane , Gregory B. Poole

We quantify the impact of finite catalog size, or "catalog variance," on current gravitational-wave population analyses. The distribution of merging binary black holes is commonly reconstructed via hierarchical Bayesian inference, with…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2026-03-03 Alessia Corelli , Davide Gerosa , Matthew Mould , Cecilia Maria Fabbri

The growing number of gravitational-wave (GW) observations allows for constraints to be placed on the underlying population of black holes; current estimates show that black hole spins are small, with binaries more likely to have comparable…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2026-01-28 Charlie Hoy

The catalog of gravitational-wave events is growing, and so are our hopes of constraining the underlying astrophysics of stellar-mass black-hole mergers by inferring the distributions of, e.g., masses and spins. While conventional analyses…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2022-11-15 Matthew Mould , Davide Gerosa , Stephen R. Taylor

Gravitational-wave events are interpreted in terms of Bayesian posteriors for their source properties inferred under unphysical reference priors. Though these parameter estimates are important intermediate data products for downstream…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2026-04-20 Matthew Mould , Rodrigo Tenorio , Davide Gerosa

One of the goals of gravitational-wave astrophysics is to infer the number and properties of the formation channels of binary black holes (BBHs); to do so, one must be able to connect various models with the data. We explore benefits and…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2023-12-27 April Qiu Cheng , Michael Zevin , Salvatore Vitale

Next-generation gravitational-wave observatories will reach farther into the universe than currently possible, revealing black-hole mergers from early stellar binary systems such as Population III stars, whose properties are currently…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-05-13 Cailin Plunkett , Matthew Mould , Salvatore Vitale

We describe several new techniques which accelerate Bayesian searches for continuous gravitational-wave emission from supermassive black-hole binaries using pulsar timing arrays. These techniques mitigate the problematic increase of…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2014-11-25 Stephen Taylor , Justin Ellis , Jonathan Gair

Many astronomical surveys prompt follow-up observations, but the decision process through which candidates are selected for follow-up can be difficult to model. This poses a challenge when inferring properties of the intrinsic population of…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-08 Reed Essick , Amanda M. Farah

Gravitational waves (GWs) signals detected by the LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA collaboration might be sourced (partly) by the merges of primordial black holes (PBHs). The conventional hierarchical Bayesian inference methods can allow us to study…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2026-05-26 Hai-Long Huang , Zhan-He Wang , Qing-Yu Lan , Jun-Qian Jiang , Jibin He , Yu-Tong Wang , Jun Zhang , Yun-Song Piao

Strong lensing of gravitational waves can produce several detectable images as repeated events in the upcoming observing runs, which can be detected with the posterior overlap analysis (Bayes factor). The choice of the binary black hole…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-09-26 Damon H. T. Cheung , Stefano Rinaldi , Martina Toscani , Otto A. Hannuksela

Bayesian analyses are often performed using so-called noninformative priors, with a view to achieving objective inference about unknown parameters on which available data depends. Noninformative priors depend on the relationship of the data…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-08-14 Nicholas Lewis

Gravitational-wave observations of binary black holes allow new tests of general relativity to be performed on strong, dynamical gravitational fields. These tests require accurate waveform models of the gravitational-wave signal, otherwise…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2021-06-29 Christopher J. Moore , Eliot Finch , Riccardo Buscicchio , Davide Gerosa

Third-generation (3G) gravitational-wave detectors will observe thousands of coalescing neutron star binaries with unprecedented fidelity. Extracting the highest precision science from these signals is expected to be challenging owing to…

The coalescence of compact binaries containing neutron stars or black holes is one of the most promising signals for advanced ground-based laser interferometer gravitational-wave detectors, with the first direct detections expected over the…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2015-09-02 Simon Stevenson , Frank Ohme , Stephen Fairhurst

We seek to achieve the Holy Grail of Bayesian inference for gravitational-wave astronomy: using deep-learning techniques to instantly produce the posterior $p(\theta|D)$ for the source parameters $\theta$, given the detector data $D$. To do…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2020-01-31 Alvin J. K. Chua , Michele Vallisneri

Approximations are commonly employed in realistic applications of scientific Bayesian inference, often due to convenience if not necessity. In the field of gravitational-wave (GW) data analysis, fast-to-evaluate but approximate waveform…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2024-04-03 Ruiting Mao , Jeong Eun Lee , Ollie Burke , Alvin J. K. Chua , Matthew C. Edwards , Renate Meyer
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