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Diffusion models have achieved remarkable results in image generation, and have similarly been used to learn high-performing policies in sequential decision-making tasks. Decision-making diffusion models can be trained on lower-quality…

We prove a universality result that reduces the free energy of rank-one matrix estimation problems in the setting of mismatched prior and noise to the computation of the free energy for a modified Sherrington-Kirkpatrick spin glass. Our…

In Bayesian nonparametric models, Gaussian processes provide a popular prior choice for regression function estimation. Existing literature on the theoretical investigation of the resulting posterior distribution almost exclusively assume a…

Let $X_1,X_2,...$ be independent variables, each having a normal distribution with negative mean $-\beta<0$ and variance 1. We consider the partial sums $S_n=X_1+...+X_n$, with $S_0=0$, and refer to the process $\{S_n:n\geq0\}$ as the…

Let $a_n$ be the random increasing sequence of natural numbers which takes each value independently with decreasing probability of order $n^{-\alpha}$, $0 < \alpha < 1/2$. We prove that, almost surely, for every measure-preserving system…

Our main goal is to study a class of processes whose increments are generated via a cellular automata rule. Given the increments of a simple biased random walk, a new sequence of (dependent) Bernoulli random variables is produced. It is…

We introduce a novel bias-variance decomposition for a range of strictly convex margin losses, including the logistic loss (minimized by the classic LogitBoost algorithm), as well as the squared margin loss and canonical boosting loss.…

Let $(E, \| \cdot\|)$ be a Banach space such that, for some $q\geq 2$, the function $x\mapsto \|x\|^q$ is of $C^2$ class and its first and second Fr\'{e}chet derivatives are bounded by some constant multiples of $(q-1)$-th power of the norm…

In this paper, a study of random times on filtered probability spaces is undertaken. The main message is that, as long as distributional properties of optional processes up to the random time are involved, there is no loss of generality in…

Consider a generalized Elephant Random Walk in which the step is chosen by selecting $k$ previous steps with $k$ odd and then going in the majority direction with a probability $p$ and in the opposite direction otherwise. In the $k=1$ case…

Decoding sits between a language model and everything we do with it, yet it is still treated as a heuristic knob-tuning exercise. We argue decoding should be understood as a principled optimisation layer: at each token, we solve a…

Joining records with all other records that meet a linkage condition can result in an astronomically large number of combinations due to many-to-many relationships. For such challenging (acyclic) joins, a random sample over the join result…

A new class of general exponential ranking models is introduced which we label angle-based models for ranking data. A consensus score vector is assumed, which assigns scores to a set of items, where the scores reflect a consensus view of…

Let $f:\mathbb{R}^k\to \mathbb{R}$ be a measurable function, and let $\{U_i\}_{i\in\mathbb{N}}$ be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables. Consider the random process $Z_i=f(U_{i},...,U_{i+k-1})$. We show that for all $\ell$, there is a…

We show that the "twisted" planar random walk - which results by summing up stationary increments rotated by multiples of a fixed angle - is recurrent under diverse assumptions on the increment process. For example, if the increment process…

We give a decomposition of the posterior predictive variance using the law of total variance and conditioning on a finite dimensional discrete random variable. This random variable summarizes various features of modeling that are used to…

We consider a multi-process remote estimation system observing $K$ independent Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. In this system, a shared sensor samples the $K$ processes in such a way that the long-term average sum mean square error (MSE) is…

We show that all the time-dependent statistical properties of the rightmost points of a branching Brownian motion can be extracted from the traveling wave solutions of the Fisher-KPP equation. We show that the distribution of all the…

Non-parametric maximum likelihood estimation encompasses a group of classic methods to estimate distribution-associated functions from potentially censored and truncated data, with extensive applications in survival analysis. These methods,…

This paper studies a penalized statistical decision rule for the treatment assignment problem. Consider the setting of a utilitarian policy maker who must use sample data to allocate a binary treatment to members of a population, based on…