Related papers: On the Generalization and Robustness in Conditiona…
We develop a risk-averse safety analysis method for stochastic systems on discrete infinite time horizons. Our method quantifies the notion of risk for a control system in terms of the severity of a harmful random outcome in a fraction of…
Safety in reinforcement learning (RL) is a key property in both training and execution in many domains such as autonomous driving or finance. In this paper, we formalize it with a constrained RL formulation in the distributional RL setting.…
We present a polynomial-time online algorithm for maximizing the conditional value at risk (CVaR) of a monotone stochastic submodular function. Given $T$ i.i.d. samples from an underlying distribution arriving online, our algorithm produces…
As the increasing application of AI in finance, this paper will leverage AI algorithms to examine tail risk and develop a model to alter tail risk to promote the stability of US financial markets, and enhance the resilience of the US…
For purposes of Value-at-Risk estimation, we consider several multivariate families of heavy-tailed distributions, which can be seen as multidimensional versions of Paretian stable and Student's t distributions allowing different marginals…
In order to model risk aversion in reinforcement learning, an emerging line of research adapts familiar algorithms to optimize coherent risk functionals, a class that includes conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). Because optimizing the…
Regular variation is often used as the starting point for modeling multivariate heavy-tailed data. A random vector is regularly varying if and only if its radial part $R$ is regularly varying and is asymptotically independent of the angular…
We study the problem of incorporating risk while making combinatorial decisions under uncertainty. We formulate a discrete submodular maximization problem for selecting a set using Conditional-Value-at-Risk (CVaR), a risk metric commonly…
We study issues of robustness in the context of Quantitative Risk Management and Optimization. We develop a general methodology for determining whether a given risk measurement related optimization problem is robust, which we call…
Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) has garnered significant attention in recent years due to the growing interest in deploying RL agents in real-world scenarios. A critical aspect of risk awareness involves modeling highly rare risk…
Control Barrier functions (CBFs) have attracted extensive attention for designing safe controllers for their deployment in real-world safety-critical systems. However, the perception of the surrounding environment is often subject to…
Value-at-risk (VaR) has been playing the role of a standard risk measure since its introduction. In practice, the delta-normal approach is usually adopted to approximate the VaR of portfolios with option positions. Its effectiveness,…
We propose a novel probabilistic model to facilitate the learning of multivariate tail dependence of multiple financial assets. Our method allows one to construct from known random vectors, e.g., standard normal, sophisticated joint…
In this paper we discuss a general methodology to compute the market risk measure over long time horizons and at extreme percentiles, which are the typical conditions needed for estimating Economic Capital. The proposed approach extends the…
Robot navigation in dynamic, crowded environments poses a significant challenge due to the inherent uncertainties in the obstacle model. In this work, we propose a risk-adaptive approach based on the Conditional Value-at-Risk Barrier…
In this work, we establish risk bounds for the Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) with both dependent and heavy-tailed data-generating processes. We do so by extending the seminal works of Mendelson [Men15, Men18] on the analysis of ERM with…
Risk forecasts drive trading constraints and capital allocation, yet losses are nonstationary and regime-dependent. This paper studies sequential one-sided VaR control via conformal calibration. I propose regime-weighted conformal risk…
We study Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) variants of two canonical sequential decision problems: Pandora's box and the prophet inequality. For Pandora's box, the risk-aware problem retains an exact Weitzman-style index solution after a…
High-dimensional time series data appear in many scientific areas in the current data-rich environment. Analysis of such data poses new challenges to data analysts because of not only the complicated dynamic dependence between the series,…
Value at Risk (VaR) and stress testing are two of the most widely used approaches in portfolio risk management to estimate potential market value losses under adverse market moves. VaR quantifies potential loss in value over a specified…