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Related papers: Prophet Inequality with Conservative Prediction

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This note records a common threshold/surplus decomposition for single-threshold stopping rules in the classical prophet inequality. The same decomposition is used to certify several deterministic thresholds, including the median, half-mean,…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-28 Jiechen Zhang

This paper studies an online replication problem for distributed data access. The goal is to dynamically create and delete data copies in a multi-server system as time passes to minimize the total storage and network cost of serving access…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2024-04-26 Tianyu Zuo , Xueyan Tang , Bu Sung Lee

We consider online algorithms for the {\em page migration problem} that use predictions, potentially imperfect, to improve their performance. The best known online algorithms for this problem, due to Westbrook'94 and Bienkowski et al'17,…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2020-06-11 Piotr Indyk , Frederik Mallmann-Trenn , Slobodan Mitrović , Ronitt Rubinfeld

We present prior robust algorithms for a large class of resource allocation problems where requests arrive one-by-one (online), drawn independently from an unknown distribution at every step. We design a single algorithm that, for every…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2019-03-12 Nikhil R. Devanur , Kamal Jain , Balasubramanian Sivan , Christopher A. Wilkens

We investigate the role of commitment in optimal stopping by studying all the variants between Prophet Inequality (PI) and Pandora's Box (PB). Both problems deal with a set of variables drawn from known distributions. In PI the gambler…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2025-09-30 José Correa , Evangelia Gergatsouli , Bruno Ziliotto

Matching is one of the most fundamental and broadly applicable problems across many domains. In these diverse real-world applications, there is often a degree of uncertainty in the input which has led to the study of stochastic matching…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Brian Brubach , Nathaniel Grammel , Will Ma , Calum MacRury , Aravind Srinivasan

Conformal prediction yields a prediction set with guaranteed $1-\alpha$ coverage of the true target under the i.i.d. assumption, which may not hold and lead to a gap between $1-\alpha$ and the actual coverage. Prior studies bound the gap…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-07 Rui Xu , Chao Chen , Yue Sun , Parvathinathan Venkitasubramaniam , Sihong Xie

Conformal prediction provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification with finite-sample coverage guarantees. While recent work has extended conformal prediction to online and sequential settings, existing methods typically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-14 Eduardo Ochoa Rivera , Ambuj Tewari

Winner-take-all competitions in forecasting and machine-learning suffer from distorted incentives. Witkowski et al. 2018 identified this problem and proposed ELF, a truthful mechanism to select a winner. We show that, from a pool of $n$…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-14 Rafael Frongillo , Robert Gomez , Anish Thilagar , Bo Waggoner

This paper presents a framework capable of accurately forecasting future sales in the retail industry and classifying the product portfolio according to the expected level of forecasting reliability. The proposed framework, that would be of…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-05-18 Emir Zunic , Kemal Korjenic , Kerim Hodzic , Dzenana Donko

Following a line of work that takes advantage of vast machine-learned data to enhance online algorithms with (possibly erroneous) information about future inputs, we consider predictions in the context of deterministic algorithms for the…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2025-02-17 Christodoulos Karavasilis

We study the problem of opportunistic approachability: a generalization of Blackwell approachability where the learner would like to obtain stronger guarantees (i.e., approach a smaller set) when their adversary limits themselves to a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-26 Teodor Vanislavov Marinov , Mehryar Mohri , Princewill Okoroafor , Jon Schneider , Julian Zimmert

Conformal prediction is a framework for providing prediction intervals with distribution-free validity, guaranteeing predictive coverage for data drawn from any distribution. Its two main variants are full conformal prediction and split…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-29 Aabesh Bhattacharyya , Boxuan Zhang , Rina Foygel Barber

Online bipartite matching has been extensively studied. In the unweighted setting, Karp et al. gave an optimal $(1 - 1/e)$-competitive randomized algorithm. In the weighted setting, optimal algorithms have been achieved only under…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2021-11-03 Nguyen Kim Thang

We consider prophet inequalities for XOS and MPH-$k$ combinatorial auctions and give a simplified proof for the existence of static and anonymous item prices which recover the state-of-the-art competitive ratios. Our proofs make use of a…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-11-03 Alexander Braun , Thomas Kesselheim

Several well-studied online resource allocation problems can be formulated in terms of infinite, increasing sequences of positive values, in which each element is associated with a corresponding allocation value. Examples include problems…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2021-11-10 Spyros Angelopoulos , Diogo Arsénio , Shahin Kamali

In this paper, we investigate the online allocation problem of maximizing the overall revenue subject to both lower and upper bound constraints. Compared to the extensively studied online problems with only resource upper bounds, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-31 Qixin Zhang , Wenbing Ye , Zaiyi Chen , Haoyuan Hu , Enhong Chen , Yang Yu

Real-time probability forecasts for binary outcomes are routine in sports, online experimentation, medicine, and finance. Retrospective narratives, however, often hinge on pathwise extremes: for example, a forecast that becomes "90%…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-03 Jonathan Pipping-Gamón , Abraham J. Wyner

Among the various aspects of algorithmic fairness studied in recent years, the tension between satisfying both \textit{sufficiency} and \textit{separation} -- e.g. the ratios of positive or negative predictive values, and false positive or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-26 Limor Gultchin , Vincent Cohen-Addad , Sophie Giffard-Roisin , Varun Kanade , Frederik Mallmann-Trenn

Setting sale prices correctly is of great importance for firms, and the study and forecast of prices time series is therefore a relevant topic not only from a data science perspective but also from an economic and applicative one. In this…