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Counterfactual estimation over time is important in various applications, such as personalized medicine. However, time-dependent confounding bias in observational data still poses a significant challenge in achieving accurate and efficient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Nghia D. Nguyen , Pablo Robles-Granda , Lav R. Varshney

Latent variables often mask cause-effect relationships in observational data which provokes spurious links that may be misinterpreted as causal. This problem sparks great interest in the fields such as climate science and economics. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-21 Violeta Teodora Trifunov , Maha Shadaydeh , Joachim Denzler

Currently, machine learning is widely used across various domains, including time series data analysis. However, some machine learning models function as black boxes, making interpretability a critical concern. One approach to address this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-01 Keita Kinjo

We propose a new estimator to measure directed dependencies in time series. The dimensionality of data is first reduced using a new non-uniform embedding technique, where the variables are ranked according to a weighted sum of the amount of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-02 Payam Shahsavari Baboukani , Carina Graversen , Emina Alickovic , Jan Østergaard

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) aim to enhance the interpretability of machine learning models by illustrating how alterations in input features would affect the resulting predictions. Common CE approaches require an additional model and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-10-02 Matan Atad , David Schinz , Hendrik Moeller , Robert Graf , Benedikt Wiestler , Daniel Rueckert , Nassir Navab , Jan S. Kirschke , Matthias Keicher

Counterfactual Explanations (CEs) help address the question: How can the factors that influence the prediction of a predictive model be changed to achieve a more favorable outcome from a user's perspective? Thus, they bear the potential to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-27 Xuan Zhao , Klaus Broelemann , Gjergji Kasneci

Estimating causal effects from observational data is inherently challenging due to the lack of observable counterfactual outcomes and even the presence of unmeasured confounding. Traditional methods often rely on restrictive, untestable…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-07 Li Chen , Xiaotong Shen , Wei Pan

Counterfactual Explanations (CFEs) interpret machine learning models by identifying the smallest change to input features needed to change the model's prediction to a desired output. For classification tasks, CFEs determine how close a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-01 Margarita A. Guerrero , Cristian R. Rojas

Counterfactual explanations are increasingly proposed as interpretable mechanisms to achieve algorithmic recourse. However, current counterfactual techniques for time series classification are predominantly designed with static data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Emmanuel C. Chukwu , Rianne M. Schouten , Monique Tabak , Mykola Pechenizkiy

The application of counterfactual explanation (CE) techniques in the realm of electroencephalography (EEG) classification has been relatively infrequent in contemporary research. In this study, we attempt to introduce and explore a novel…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-12-18 Kang Yin , Hye-Bin Shin , Hee-Dong Kim , Seong-Whan Lee

Accurately estimating treatment effects over time is crucial in fields such as precision medicine, epidemiology, economics, and marketing. Many current methods for estimating treatment effects over time assume that all confounders are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-11 Mouad El Bouchattaoui , Myriam Tami , Benoit Lepetit , Paul-Henry Cournède

Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time has the potential to unlock personalized healthcare by assisting decision-makers to answer ''what-iF'' questions. Existing causal inference approaches typically consider regular, discrete-time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-17 Nabeel Seedat , Fergus Imrie , Alexis Bellot , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) provide recourse recommendations for individuals affected by algorithmic decisions. A key challenge is generating CEs that are robust against various perturbation types (e.g. input and model perturbations)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Junqi Jiang , Francesco Leofante , Antonio Rago , Francesca Toni

This paper introduces a simple framework of counterfactual estimation for causal inference with time-series cross-sectional data, in which we estimate the average treatment effect on the treated by directly imputing counterfactual outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-16 Licheng Liu , Ye Wang , Yiqing Xu

Learning transferable representations from unlabeled time series is crucial for improving performance in data-scarce classification. Existing self-supervised methods often operate at the point level and rely on unidirectional encoding,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Mingyue Cheng , Xiaoyu Tao , Zhiding Liu , Qi Liu , Hao Zhang , Rujiao Zhang , Enhong Chen

The problem of fair classification can be mollified if we develop a method to remove the embedded sensitive information from the classification features. This line of separating the sensitive information is developed through the causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-10 Hyemi Kim , Seungjae Shin , JoonHo Jang , Kyungwoo Song , Weonyoung Joo , Wanmo Kang , Il-Chul Moon

Counterfactual Explanations (CEs) are a powerful technique used to explain Machine Learning models by showing how the input to a model should be minimally changed for the model to produce a different output. Similar proposals have been made…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-01 Nicola Gigante , Francesco Leofante , Andrea Micheli

Inferring models, predicting the future, and estimating the entropy rate of discrete-time, discrete-event processes is well-worn ground. However, a much broader class of discrete-event processes operates in continuous-time. Here, we provide…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-05-11 S. E. Marzen , J. P. Crutchfield

The complexity of modern electro-mechanical systems require the development of sophisticated diagnostic methods like anomaly detection capable of detecting deviations. Conventional anomaly detection approaches like signal processing and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-07 Abhishek Srinivasan , Varun Singapuri Ravi , Juan Carlos Andresen , Anders Holst

Patch-based transformers have emerged as efficient and improved long-horizon modeling architectures for time series modeling. Yet, existing approaches rely on temporally-agnostic patch construction, where arbitrary starting positions and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Sachith Abeywickrama , Emadeldeen Eldele , Min Wu , Xiaoli Li , Chau Yuen
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