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Counterfactual Explanations (CEs) have emerged as a major paradigm in explainable AI research, providing recourse recommendations for users affected by the decisions of machine learning models. However, CEs found by existing methods often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-25 Junqi Jiang , Francesco Leofante , Antonio Rago , Francesca Toni

We present Causal Posterior Estimation (CPE), a novel method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, i.e., models where the evaluation of the likelihood function is intractable or too computationally expensive, but where one can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Simon Dirmeier , Antonietta Mira

Interpretable time series prediction is crucial for safety-critical areas such as healthcare and autonomous driving. Most existing methods focus on interpreting predictions by assigning important scores to segments of time series. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-23 Jingquan Yan , Hao Wang

Market generators using deep generative models have shown promise for synthetic financial data generation, but existing approaches lack causal reasoning capabilities essential for counterfactual analysis and risk assessment. We propose a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-12 Dennis Thumm , Luis Ontaneda Mijares

Counterfactual explanations are a prominent example of post-hoc interpretability methods in the explainable Artificial Intelligence research domain. They provide individuals with alternative scenarios and a set of recommendations to achieve…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-01-20 Andrea Ferrario , Michele Loi

Time series imputation is one of the most fundamental tasks for time series. Real-world time series datasets are frequently incomplete (or irregular with missing observations), in which case imputation is strongly required. Many different…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-25 Hyowon Wi , Yehjin Shin , Noseong Park

For an explanation of a deep learning model to be effective, it must provide both insight into a model and suggest a corresponding action in order to achieve some objective. Too often, the litany of proposed explainable deep learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-09 Laura Rieger , Chandan Singh , W. James Murdoch , Bin Yu

In eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), instance-based explanations for time series have gained increasing attention due to their potential for actionable and interpretable insights in domains such as healthcare. Addressing the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Maciej Mozolewski , Betül Bayrak , Kerstin Bach , Grzegorz J. Nalepa

Recent studies show that auto-encoder based approaches successfully perform language generation, smooth sentence interpolation, and style transfer over unseen attributes using unlabelled datasets in a zero-shot manner. The latent space…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-05-06 Sharan Narasimhan , Suvodip Dey , Maunendra Sankar Desarkar

Counterfactual explanations, and their associated algorithmic recourse, are typically leveraged to understand, explain, and potentially alter a prediction coming from a black-box classifier. In this paper, we propose to extend the use of…

Counterfactual estimation using synthetic controls is one of the most successful recent methodological developments in causal inference. Despite its popularity, the current description only considers time series aligned across units and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-03 Alexis Bellot , Mihaela van der Schaar

We introduce new inference procedures for counterfactual and synthetic control methods for policy evaluation. We recast the causal inference problem as a counterfactual prediction and a structural breaks testing problem. This allows us to…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-01-26 Victor Chernozhukov , Kaspar Wüthrich , Yinchu Zhu

We introduce a novel modeling approach for time series imputation and forecasting, tailored to address the challenges often encountered in real-world data, such as irregular samples, missing data, or unaligned measurements from multiple…

This work develops a flexible inferential framework for nonparametric causal inference in time-to-event settings, based on stochastic interventions defined through multiplicative scaling of the intensity governing an intermediate event…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-04 Helene Charlotte Wiese Rytgaard , Mark van der Laan

Counterfactual explanations indicate the smallest change in input that can translate to a different outcome for a machine learning model. Counterfactuals have generated immense interest in high-stakes applications such as finance,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Erfaun Noorani , Pasan Dissanayake , Faisal Hamman , Sanghamitra Dutta

Reinforcement learning control algorithms face significant challenges due to out-of-distribution and inefficient exploration problems. While model-based reinforcement learning enhances the agent's reasoning and planning capabilities by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Sunbowen Lee , Yicheng Gong , Chao Deng

The analysis of temporal networks heavily depends on the analysis of time-respecting paths. However, before being able to model and analyze the time-respecting paths, we have to infer the timescales at which the temporal edges influence…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-01-30 Luka V. Petrović , Anatol Wegner , Ingo Scholtes

We consider after-study statistical inference for sequentially designed experiments wherein multiple units are assigned treatments for multiple time points using treatment policies that adapt over time. Our goal is to provide inference…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-10 Raaz Dwivedi , Katherine Tian , Sabina Tomkins , Predrag Klasnja , Susan Murphy , Devavrat Shah

Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) guide users on how to adjust inputs to machine learning models to achieve desired outputs. While existing research primarily addresses static scenarios, real-world applications often involve data or model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Ignacy Stępka , Mateusz Lango , Jerzy Stefanowski

Although the Conditional Variational AutoEncoder (CVAE) model can generate more diversified responses than the traditional Seq2Seq model, the responses often have low relevance with the input words or are illogical with the question. A…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-10-12 Jiayi Liu , Wei Wei , Zhixuan Chu , Xing Gao , Ji Zhang , Tan Yan , Yulin Kang