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Scaling laws predict loss from compute but not how capabilities interact. We measure the coupling between reasoning and truthfulness across 63 base models from 16 families and find a regime change invisible to loss curves: below a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Adil Amin

The cross-entropy scaling law has long served as a key tool for guiding the development of large language models. It shows that cross-entropy loss decreases in a predictable power-law rate as the model size increases. However, recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Junxi Yan , Zixi Wei , Qingyao Ai , Yiqun Liu , Jingtao Zhan

How do neural language models acquire a language's structure when trained for next-token prediction? We address this question by deriving theoretical scaling laws for neural network performance on synthetic datasets generated by the Random…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Francesco Cagnetta , Alessandro Favero , Antonio Sclocchi , Matthieu Wyart

Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success. A key factor behind this success is the scaling law observed by OpenAI. Specifically, for models with Transformer architecture, the test loss exhibits a power-law…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Yifang Chen , Xuyang Guo , Xiaoyu Li , Yingyu Liang , Zhenmei Shi , Zhao Song

Scaling laws describe how model performance grows with data, parameters and compute. While large datasets can usually be collected at relatively low cost in domains such as language or vision, scientific machine learning is often limited by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Paul Setinek , Gianluca Galletti , Johannes Brandstetter

Trained attention layers exhibit striking and reproducible spectral structure of the weights, including low-rank collapse, bulk deformation, and isolated spectral outliers, yet the origin of these phenomena and their implications for…

Widely observed neural scaling laws, in which error falls off as a power of the training set size, model size, or both, have driven substantial performance improvements in deep learning. However, these improvements through scaling alone…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-25 Ben Sorscher , Robert Geirhos , Shashank Shekhar , Surya Ganguli , Ari S. Morcos

Scaling laws have profoundly shaped our understanding of model performance in computer vision and natural language processing, yet their application to general audio representation learning remains underexplored. A key challenge lies in the…

Sound · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Xuyao Deng , Yanjie Sun , Yong Dou , Kele Xu

Generative AI has recently propelled the decoding of images from brain activity. How do these approaches scale with the amount and type of neural recordings? Here, we systematically compare image decoding from four types of non-invasive…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-01-29 Hubert Banville , Yohann Benchetrit , Stéphane d'Ascoli , Jérémy Rapin , Jean-Rémi King

Scaling laws, a defining feature of deep learning, reveal a striking power-law improvement in model performance with increasing dataset and model size. Yet, their mathematical origins, especially the scaling exponent, have remained elusive.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-24 Yuda Bi , Vince D Calhoun

Generalization abilities of well-trained large language models (LLMs) are known to scale predictably as a function of model size. In contrast to the existence of practical scaling laws governing pre-training, the quality of LLMs after…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-09 Zifei Xu , Alexander Lan , Wanzin Yazar , Tristan Webb , Sayeh Sharify , Xin Wang

Within the scaling laws paradigm, which underpins the training of large neural networks like ChatGPT and Llama, we consider a supervised regression setting and establish the existance of a strong form of the model collapse phenomenon, a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Elvis Dohmatob , Yunzhen Feng , Arjun Subramonian , Julia Kempe

Modern LLM pre-training consumes vast amounts of compute and training data, making the scaling behavior, or scaling laws, of different models a key distinguishing factor. Discrete diffusion language models (DLMs) have been proposed as an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Dimitri von Rütte , Janis Fluri , Omead Pooladzandi , Bernhard Schölkopf , Thomas Hofmann , Antonio Orvieto

Reasoning is an integral part of many tasks performed by language models (LMs). However, the effects of scaling model sizes and data on reasoning abilities at pretraining time remain understudied. To rigorously investigate this problem, we…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Xinyi Wang , Shawn Tan , Shenbo Xu , Mingyu Jin , William Yang Wang , Rameswar Panda , Yikang Shen

Neural scaling laws have garnered significant interest due to their ability to predict model performance as a function of increasing parameters, data, and compute. In this work, we propose a simple statistical ansatz based on memorization…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-10 Noam Levi

Recent large language models have been trained on vast datasets, but also often on repeated data, either intentionally for the purpose of upweighting higher quality data, or unintentionally because data deduplication is not perfect and the…

Neural scaling laws, which in some domains can predict the performance of large neural networks as a function of model, data, and compute scale, are the cornerstone of building foundation models in Natural Language Processing and Computer…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-27 Shashank Subramanian , Alexander Kiefer , Arnur Nigmetov , Amir Gholami , Dmitriy Morozov , Michael W. Mahoney

We propose a simple mechanism by which scaling laws emerge from feature learning in multi-layer networks. We study a high-dimensional hierarchical target that is a globally high-degree function, but that can be represented by a combination…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-15 Arie Wortsman-Zurich , Hugo Tabanelli , Yatin Dandi , Florent Krzakala , Bruno Loureiro

From benign overfitting in overparameterized models to rich power-law scalings in performance, simple ridge regression displays surprising behaviors sometimes thought to be limited to deep neural networks. This balance of phenomenological…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-08 Alexander Atanasov , Jacob A. Zavatone-Veth , Cengiz Pehlevan

Recent work has shown that, in generative modeling, cross-entropy loss improves smoothly with model size and training compute, following a power law plus constant scaling law. One challenge in extending these results to reinforcement…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-21 Jacob Hilton , Jie Tang , John Schulman
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