Related papers: Detecting and forecasting tipping points from samp…

We apply tipping point analysis to measurements of electronic components commonly used in applications in the automotive or aviation industries and demonstrate early warning signals based on scaling properties of resistance time series. The…

Recent work has highlighted the utility of methods for early warning signal detection in dynamic systems approaching critical tipping thresholds. Often these tipping points resemble local bifurcations, whose low dimensional dynamics can…

Various subsystems of the Earth system may undergo critical transitions by passing a so-called tipping point, under sustained changes to forcing. For example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is of particular…

Tipping points occur in many real-world systems, at which the system shifts suddenly from one state to another. The ability to predict the occurrence of tipping points from time series data remains an outstanding challenge and a major…

Current early warning signs for tipping points often fail to distinguish between catastrophic shifts and less dramatic state changes, such as spatial pattern formation. This paper introduces a novel method that addresses this limitation by…

The development of robust Early Warning Signals (EWS) is necessary to quantify the risk of crossing tipping points in the present-day climate change. Classically, EWS are statistical measures based on time series of climate state variables,…

Tipping points (TP) are abrupt transitions between metastable states in complex systems, most often described by a bifurcation or crisis of a multistable system induced by a slowly changing control parameter. An avenue for predicting TPs in…

Early warning signals (EWSs) forewarn a sudden transition (or tipping) from a desirable state to an undesirable state. However, we observe that EWSs detect an impending tipping past bifurcation points when control parameters are varied…

Tipping points have been actively studied in various applications as well as from a mathematical viewpoint. A main technique to theoretically understand early-warning signs for tipping points is to use the framework of fast-slow stochastic…

Tipping to an undesired state in the climate when a control parameter slowly approaches a critical value is a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions rely on detecting early warning signals (EWSs) in…

Developing methods for detecting tipping phenomena at an early stage is an important problem in various fields such as ecology, medicine, and economics. A tipping phenomenon is characterized by a rapid transition resulting from the…

Model studies indicate that many climate subsystems, especially ecosystems, may be vulnerable to 'tipping': a 'catastrophic process' in which a system, driven by gradually changing external factors, abruptly transitions (or 'collapses')…

In nonlinear dynamical systems, tipping refers to a critical transition from one steady state to another, typically catastrophic, steady state, often resulting from a saddle-node bifurcation. Recently, the machine-learning framework of…

Regime shifts are quite common in complex systems like cell regulations, disease transmissions, ecosystems, marine ice instability, etc. Several statistical indicators known as early warning signals (EWS) have been theorized to anticipate…

Many dynamical systems exhibit abrupt transitions or tipping as the control parameter is varied. In scenarios where the parameter is varied continuously, the rate of change of control parameter greatly affects the performance of early…

The potential for complex systems to exhibit tipping points in which an equilibrium state undergoes a sudden and often irreversible shift is well established, but prediction of these events using standard forecast modeling techniques is…

Tipping points are abrupt, drastic, and often irreversible changes in the evolution of non-stationary and chaotic dynamical systems. For instance, increased greenhouse gas concentrations are predicted to lead to drastic decreases in low…

In a nonautonomous nonlinear dynamical system, generic critical transitions (tipping points) are not limited to slow passage through fold bifurcations. They can also correspond to slow passage through other generic bifurcations, such as…

This paper proposes a novel approach for detecting the topology of distribution networks based on the analysis of time series measurements. The time-based analysis approach draws on data from high-precision phasor measurement units (PMUs or…

Future prediction is a fundamental principle of intelligence that helps plan actions and avoid possible dangers. As the future is uncertain to a large extent, modeling the uncertainty and multimodality of the future states is of great…