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Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used to estimate causal effects from non-randomized data. A canonical example is a randomized trial with noncompliance, in which the randomized treatment assignment serves as an IV for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-06 Rui Wang , Ying-Qi Zhao , Oliver Dukes , Bo Zhang

The problem of endogeneity in statistics and econometrics is often handled by introducing instrumental variables (IV) which fulfill the mean independence assumption, i.e. the unobservable is mean independent of the instruments. When full…

Computation · Statistics 2021-08-13 Fabian Dunker

Learning individual-level causal effects from observational data, such as inferring the most effective medication for a specific patient, is a problem of growing importance for policy makers. The most important aspect of inferring causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-07 Christos Louizos , Uri Shalit , Joris Mooij , David Sontag , Richard Zemel , Max Welling

Causal representation learning is the task of identifying the underlying causal variables and their relations from high-dimensional observations, such as images. Recent work has shown that one can reconstruct the causal variables from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-09 Phillip Lippe , Sara Magliacane , Sindy Löwe , Yuki M. Asano , Taco Cohen , Efstratios Gavves

Estimating causal effects under networked interference from observational data is a crucial yet challenging problem. Most existing methods mainly rely on the networked unconfoundedness assumption, which guarantees the identification of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-28 Weilin Chen , Ruichu Cai , Jie Qiao , Yuguang Yan , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

A major challenge in instrumental variables (IV) analysis is to find instruments that are valid, or have no direct effect on the outcome and are ignorable. Typically one is unsure whether all of the putative IVs are in fact valid. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-08-10 Zijian Guo , Hyunseung Kang , T. Tony Cai , Dylan S. Small

Can instrumental variables be found from data? While instrumental variable (IV) methods are widely used to identify causal effect, testing their validity from observed data remains a challenge. This is because validity of an IV depends on…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-05 Amit Sharma

Instrumental variables (IV) estimation suffers selection bias when the analysis conditions on the treatment. Judea Pearl's early graphical definition of instrumental variables explicitly prohibited conditioning on the treatment.…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-05-20 Felix Elwert , Elan Segarra

Many proposals for the identification of causal effects require an instrumental variable that satisfies strong, untestable unconfoundedness and exclusion restriction assumptions. In this paper, we show how one can potentially identify…

In observational studies, instrumental variables estimation is greatly utilized to identify causal effects. One of the key conditions for the instrumental variables estimator to be consistent is the exclusion restriction, which indicates…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-16 Gyuhyeong Goh , Jisang Yu

Instrumental variables are commonly used to estimate effects of a treatment afflicted by unmeasured confounding, and in practice instruments are often continuous (e.g., measures of distance, or treatment preference). However, available…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-05 Edward H. Kennedy , Scott A. Lorch , Dylan S. Small

We study categorical instrumental variable (IV) models with instrument, treatment, and outcome taking finitely many values. We derive a simple closed-form characterization of the set of joint distributions of potential outcomes that are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-13 Yilin Song , F. Richard Guo , K. C. Gary Chan , Thomas S. Richardson

Instrumental variables (eliminate the bias that afflicts least-squares identification of dynamical systems through noisy data, yet traditionally relies on external instruments that are seldom available for nonlinear time series data. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-11 Simon Kuang , Xinfan Lin

The instrumental variables (IV) method is a method for making causal inferences about the effect of a treatment based on an observational study in which there are unmeasured confounding variables. The method requires a valid IV, a variable…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-08-19 Dylan Small , Zhiqiang Tan , Scott Lorch , Alan Brookhart

Certain causal models involving unmeasured variables induce no independence constraints among the observed variables but imply, nevertheless, inequality contraints on the observed distribution. This paper derives a general formula for such…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Judea Pearl

Unlike other techniques of causality inference, the use of valid instrumental variables can deal with unobserved sources of both variable errors, variable omissions, and sampling bias, and still arrive at consistent estimates of average…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-02-17 Øyvind Hoveid

We investigate the estimation of the causal effect of a treatment variable on an outcome in the presence of a latent confounder. We first show that the causal effect is identifiable under certain conditions when data is available from…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Yaroslav Kivva , Sina Akbari , Saber Salehkaleybar , Negar Kiyavash

Accurately predicting conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) is crucial in personalized medicine and digital platform analytics. Since the treatments of interest often cannot be directly randomized, observational data is leveraged to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-05 Miruna Oprescu , Nathan Kallus

In this paper I revisit the interpretation of the linear instrumental variables (IV) estimand as a weighted average of conditional local average treatment effects (LATEs). I focus on a situation in which additional covariates are required…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-30 Tymon Słoczyński

We study causal effect estimation from a mixture of observational and interventional data in a confounded linear regression model with multivariate treatments. We show that the statistical efficiency in terms of expected squared error can…

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