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Randomized trials typically estimate average relative treatment effects, but decisions on the benefit of a treatment are possibly better informed by more individualized predictions of the absolute treatment effect. In case of a binary…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-20 J Hoogland , J IntHout , M Belias , MM Rovers , RD Riley , FE Harrell , KGM Moons , TPA Debray , JB Reitsma

Treatment effect estimation, which refers to the estimation of causal effects and aims to measure the strength of the causal relationship, is of great importance in many fields but is a challenging problem in practice. As present,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-20 Zhenyu Guo , Shuai Zheng , Zhizhe Liu , Kun Yan , Zhenfeng Zhu

Causal inference in a program evaluation setting faces the problem of external validity when the treatment effect in the target population is different from the treatment effect identified from the population of which the sample is…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-23 Kyungchul Song , Zhengfei Yu

Unmeasured confounding presents a significant challenge in causal inference from observational studies. Classical approaches often rely on collecting proxy variables, such as instrumental variables. However, in applications where the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-16 Xiaochuan Shi , Dehan Kong , Linbo Wang

Most of the widely used estimators of the average treatment effect (ATE) in causal inference rely on the assumptions of unconfoundedness and overlap. Unconfoundedness requires that the observed covariates account for all correlations…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-01 Yang Cai , Alkis Kalavasis , Katerina Mamali , Anay Mehrotra , Manolis Zampetakis

Causal inference has numerous real-world applications in many domains, such as health care, marketing, political science, and online advertising. Treatment effect estimation, a fundamental problem in causal inference, has been extensively…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-03 Zhixuan Chu , Jianmin Huang , Ruopeng Li , Wei Chu , Sheng Li

Causal mediation analysis is routinely conducted by applied researchers in a variety of disciplines. The goal of such an analysis is to investigate alternative causal mechanisms by examining the roles of intermediate variables that lie in…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-11-05 Kosuke Imai , Luke Keele , Teppei Yamamoto

This study designs an adaptive experiment for efficiently estimating average treatment effects (ATEs). In each round of our adaptive experiment, an experimenter sequentially samples an experimental unit, assigns a treatment, and observes…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-21 Masahiro Kato , Akihiro Oga , Wataru Komatsubara , Ryo Inokuchi

Uncertainty quantification for individual treatment effects (ITEs) is a daunting challenge in causal inference. Motivated by recent advances in conformal prediction, several works aim to construct distribution-free prediction sets for ITEs…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-07 Chongguang Tao , Zheng Zhou , Yuhong Yang

Estimation of causal effects is the core objective of many scientific disciplines. However, it remains a challenging task, especially when the effects are estimated from observational data. Recently, several promising machine learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-02 Niki Kiriakidou , Christos Diou

Causal machine learning holds promise for estimating individual treatment effects from complex data. For successful real-world applications of machine learning methods, it is of paramount importance to obtain reliable insights into which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Joseph Paillard , Angel Reyero Lobo , Vitaliy Kolodyazhniy , Bertrand Thirion , Denis A. Engemann

Estimation of individualized treatment effects (ITE), also known as conditional average treatment effects (CATE), is an active area of methodology development. However, much less attention has been paid to the quantification of uncertainty…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-08 Daijiro Kabata , Nicholas C. Henderson , Ravi Varadhan

Epidemiologists and applied statisticians often believe that relative effect measures conditional on covariates, such as risk ratios and mean ratios, are ``transportable'' across populations. Here, we examine the identification of causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-24 Issa J. Dahabreh , Sarah E. Robertson , Jon A. Steingrimsson

Many proposals for the identification of causal effects require an instrumental variable that satisfies strong, untestable unconfoundedness and exclusion restriction assumptions. In this paper, we show how one can potentially identify…

In semi-logarithmic regressions, treatment coefficients are often interpreted as approximations of the average treatment effect (ATE) in percentage points. This paper highlights the overlooked bias of this approximation under treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-04 Ying Zeng

In multi-site randomized trials with many sites and few randomization units per site, an Empirical-Bayes estimator can be used to estimate the variance of the treatment effect across sites. When this estimator indicates that treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-12 Clément de Chaisemartin , Antoine Deeb

Although complete randomization is widely regarded as the gold standard for causal inference, covariate imbalance can still arise by chance in finite samples. Rerandomization has emerged as an effective tool to improve covariate balance…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Tingxuan Han , Yuhao Wang

We study the causal effect with a functional treatment variable, where practical applications often arise in neuroscience, biomedical sciences, etc. Previous research concerning the effect of a functional variable on an outcome is typically…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Ruoxu Tan , Wei Huang , Zheng Zhang , Guosheng Yin

For counterfactual policy evaluation, it is important to ensure that treatment parameters are relevant to policies in question. This is especially challenging under unobserved heterogeneity, as is well featured in the definition of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-08-08 Sukjin Han , Shenshen Yang

Conventional methods in causal effect inferencetypically rely on specifying a valid set of control variables. When this set is unknown or misspecified, inferences will be erroneous. We propose a method for inferring average causal effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-14 Ludvig Hult , Dave Zachariah