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We propose a new approach for estimating the finite dimensional transition matrix of a Markov chain using a large number of independent sample paths observed at random times. The sample paths may be observed as few as two times, and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Daphne Aurouet , Valentin Patilea

We prove a {\it{quenched}} large deviation principle (LDP) for a simple random walk on a supercritical percolation cluster on $\Z^d$, $d\geq 2$.. We take the point of view of the moving particle and first prove a quenched LDP for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-02 Noam Berger , Chiranjib Mukherjee

In this article for a finite typed random geometric graph we define the empirical locality distribution, which records the number of nodes of a given type linked to a given number of nodes of each type. We find large deviation principle…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-01-29 Kwabena Doku-Amponsah

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are simple and extremely powerful techniques to sample from almost arbitrary distributions. The flaw in practice is that it can take a large and/or unknown amount of time to converge to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-11-13 Xianghang Liu , Justin Domke

We give a criterion to determine the large deviation rate functions for abstract dynamical systems on towers. As an application of this criterion we show the level 2 large deviation principle for some class of smooth interval maps with…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2008-01-17 Yong Moo Chung

We consider a family of continuous time symmetric random walks indexed by $k\in \mathbb{N}$, $\{X_k(t),\,t\geq 0\}$. For each $k\in \mathbb{N}$ the matching random walk take values in the finite set of states…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-06-18 Artur O. Lopes , Adriana Neumann

We obtain universal estimates on the convergence to equilibrium and the times of coupling for continuous time irreducible reversible finite-state Markov chains, both in the total variation and in the L^2 norms. The estimates in total…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-01-24 Mykhaylo Shkolnikov

Our aim is to unify and extend the large deviation upper and lower bounds for the occupation times of a Markov process with $L_2$ semigroups under minimal conditions on the state space and the process trajectories; for example, no strong…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-09-24 Naresh Jain , Nicolai Krylov

Motivated by the study of the time evolution of random dynamical systems arising in a vast variety of domains --- ranging from physics to ecology ---, we establish conditions for the occurrence of a non-trivial asymptotic behaviour for…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-15 Vladimir Belitsky , Mikhail Menshikov , Dimitri Petritis , Marina Vachkovskaia

The effect of perturbations of parameters for uniquely convergent imprecise Markov chains is studied. We provide the maximal distance between the distributions of original and perturbed chain and maximal degree of imprecision, given the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-29 Damjan Škulj

The weak and strong laws of large numbers for time-inhomogeneous Markov chains are studied under general conditions. First, under Drift Condition and Contraction Condition in total variation, we prove the weak law of large numbers. Then,…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-19 Aaron Lau , Kouji Yano

We describe an algorithm for computing the maximal invariant set for a Markov chain with linear safety constraints on the distribution over states. We then propose a Markov chain synthesis method that guarantees finite determination of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-05-06 Dylan Janak , Behçet Açıkmeşe

We build optimal exponential bounds for the probabilities of large deviations of sums \sum_{k=1}^nf(X_k) where (X_k) is a finite reversible Markov chain and f is an arbitrary bounded function. These bounds depend only on the stationary mean…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Carlos A. Leon , Francois Perron

We prove the Local Limit Theorems for bounded additive functionals of uniformly elliptic inhomogeneous Markov arrays. As an application we obtain the precise asymptotics in the large deviation regime for bounded additive functionals of…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-31 Dmitry Dolgopyat , Omri Sarig

We consider discrete graphical models Markov with respect to a graph $G$ and propose two distributed marginal methods to estimate the maximum likelihood estimate of the canonical parameter of the model. Both methods are based on a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-10-22 Helene Massam , Nanwei Wang

We prove explicit error bounds for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to compute expectations of functions with unbounded stationary variance. We assume that there is a $p\in(1,2)$ so that the functions have finite $L_p$-norm. For…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-01-27 Daniel Rudolf , Nikolaus Schweizer

We consider a system of stochastic interacting particles in $\mathbb{R}^d$ and we describe large deviations asymptotics in a joint mean-field and small-noise limit. Precisely, a large deviations principle (LDP) is established for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-17 Carlo Orrieri

The paper concerns itself with establishing large deviation principles for a sequence of stochastic integrals and stochastic differential equations driven by general semimartingales in infinite-dimensional settings. The class of…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-25 Arnab Ganguly

We investigate the complexity of covariance matrix estimation for Gibbs distributions based on dependent samples from a Markov chain. We show that when $\pi$ satisfies a Poincar\'e inequality and the chain possesses a spectral gap, we can…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-23 Yunbum Kook , Matthew S. Zhang

The partial sum of the states of a Markov chain or more generally a Markov source is asymptotically normally distributed under suitable conditions. One of these conditions is that the variance is unbounded. A simple combinatorial…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2023-06-22 Sara Kropf