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Overestimation of turnout has long been an issue in election surveys, with nonresponse bias or voter overrepresentation identified as major sources of bias. However, adjusting for nonignorable nonresponse bias is substantially challenging.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-07 Xinyu Li , Naiwen Ying , Kendrick Qijun Li , Xu Shi , Wang Miao

We introduce a method to make inference on the composition of a heterogeneous population using survey data, accounting for the possibility that capture heterogeneity is related to key survey variables. To deal with nonignorable nonresponse,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-18 Veronica Ballerini , Brunero Liseo

An establishment's average wage, computed from administrative wage data, has been found to be related to occupational wages. These occupational wages are a primary outcome variable for the Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment…

Applications · Statistics 2014-08-01 Nicholas J. Horton , Daniell Toth , Polly Phipps

We present an approach to inform decisions about nonresponse follow-up sampling. The basic idea is (i) to create completed samples by imputing nonrespondents' data under various assumptions about the nonresponse mechanisms, (ii) take…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-16 Thais Paiva , Jerry Reiter

Often, government agencies and survey organizations know the population counts or percentages for some of the variables in a survey. These may be available from auxiliary sources, for example, administrative databases or other high quality…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-12 Olanrewaju Akande , Gabriel Madson , D. Sunshine Hillygus , Jerome P. Reiter

A central theme in the field of survey statistics is estimating population-level quantities through data coming from potentially non-representative samples of the population. Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP), a model-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-17 Yuxiang Gao , Lauren Kennedy , Daniel Simpson , Andrew Gelman

We fit discrete time survival models to data from an online probability panel, where the outcome is the respondent first nonresponse to a survey invitation, following at least one previous survey completion. This approach has the advantage…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-08 Katya Kostadintcheva , Jouni Kuha , Patrick Sturgis

Several techniques exist to assess and reduce nonresponse bias, including propensity models, calibration methods, or post-stratification. These approaches can only be applied after the data collection, and assume reliable information…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-26 Blanka Szeitl , Tamás Rudas

This pedagogical review examines the use of machine learning methods in finite-population inference for survey sampling, with an emphasis on design-based validity and statistical inference. While flexible prediction tools offer substantial…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Mehdi Dagdoug , David Haziza

Nonresponse is present in almost all surveys and can severely bias estimates. It is usually distinguished between unit and item nonresponse: in the former, we completely fail to have information from a unit selected in the sample, while in…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-08-25 Alina Matei , M. Giovanna Ranalli

Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) is a popular method for addressing selection bias in subgroup estimation, with broad applications across fields from social sciences to public health. In this paper, we examine the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-06 Yajuan Si

Nonprobability samples have rapidly emerged to address time-sensitive priority topics in a variety of fields. While these data are timely, they are prone to selection bias. To mitigate selection bias, a large number of survey research…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-08 Kangrui Liu , Lingxiao Wang , Yan Li

Ordinal regression with anchored reference samples (ORARS) has been proposed for predicting the subjective Mean Opinion Score (MOS) of input stimuli automatically. The ORARS addresses the MOS prediction problem by pairing a test sample with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-07 Bin Su , Shaoguang Mao , Frank Soong , Zhiyong Wu

In the November 2016 U.S. presidential election, many state level public opinion polls, particularly in the Upper Midwest, incorrectly predicted the winning candidate. One leading explanation for this polling miss is that the precipitous…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-15 Eli Ben-Michael , Avi Feller , Erin Hartman

To gain insight into how characteristics of an establishment are associated with nonresponse, a recursive partitioning algorithm is applied to the Occupational Employment Statistics May 2006 survey data to build a regression tree. The tree…

Applications · Statistics 2012-06-29 Polly Phipps , Daniell Toth

Managers, employers, policymakers, and others often seek to understand whether decisions are biased against certain groups. One popular analytic strategy is to estimate disparities after adjusting for observed covariates, typically with a…

Applications · Statistics 2024-01-29 Jongbin Jung , Sam Corbett-Davies , Johann D. Gaebler , Ravi Shroff , Sharad Goel

Companies survey their customers to measure their satisfaction levels with the company and its services. The received responses are crucial as they allow companies to assess their respective performances and find ways to make needed…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-10-27 Naftali Cohen , Simran Lamba , Prashant Reddy

We outline a framework for multiple imputation of nonignorable item nonresponse when the marginal distributions of some of the variables with missing values are known. In particular, our framework ensures that (i) the completed datasets…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-12 Olanrewaju Akande , Jerome P. Reiter

The only acceptable form of polling in the multi-billion dollar survey research field utilizes representative samples. We argue that with proper statistical adjustment, non-representative polling can provide accurate predictions, and often…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2014-07-01 David Rothschild , Sharad Goel , Andrew Gelman , Doug Rivers

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…

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