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Accounting for sex and gender is a challenge in social science research. While other methodology papers consider issues surrounding appropriate measurement, we consider the problem of adjustment for survey nonresponse and generalization…

Applications · Statistics 2022-03-25 Lauren Kennedy , Katharine Khanna , Daniel Simpson , Andrew Gelman , Yajun Jia , Julien Teitler

We propose a statistical model to estimate population proportions under the survey variable cause model (Groves 2006), the setting in which the characteristic measured by the survey has a direct causal effect on survey participation. For…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-19 Jonathan Auerbach

Many imputation methods are based on statistical models that assume that the variable of interest is a noisy observation of a function of the auxiliary variables or covariates. Misspecification of this model may lead to severe errors in…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-09 Caren Hasler , Radu V. Craiu

Survival outcomes are common in comparative effectiveness studies and require unique handling because they are usually incompletely observed due to right-censoring. A ``once for all'' approach for causal inference with survival outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-21 Shuxi Zeng , Fan Li , Liangyuan Hu , Fan Li

Paired comparison data, where users evaluate items in pairs, play a central role in ranking and preference learning tasks. While ordinal comparison data intuitively offer richer information than binary comparisons, this paper challenges…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Shirong Xu , Jingnan Zhang , Junhui Wang

Longitudinal studies are subject to nonresponse when individuals fail to provide data for entire waves or particular questions of the survey. We compare approaches to nonresponse bias analysis (NRBA) in longitudinal studies and illustrate…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-31 Yajuan Si , Roderick Little , Ya Mo , Nell Sedransk

Training language models to produce both correct answers and sound reasoning remains an open challenge. Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards typically optimizes only final outcomes, which can lead to a failure mode where task…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Kyuyoung Kim , Kevin Wang , Yunfei Xie , Peiyang Xu , Peiyao Sheng , Chen Wei , Zhangyang Wang , Jinwoo Shin , Pramod Viswanath , Sewoong Oh

Outcome Reporting Bias (ORB) poses significant threats to the validity of meta-analytic findings. It occurs when researchers selectively report outcomes based on the significance or direction of results, potentially leading to distorted…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-17 Alessandra Gaia Saracini , Leonhard Held

Common practice to address nonresponse in probability surveys in National Statistical Offices is to follow up every nonrespondent with a view to lifting response rates. As response rate is an insufficient indicator of data quality, it is…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-08 Su-Ming Tam , Anders Holmberg , Summer Wang

We study a model of electoral accountability and selection whereby heterogeneous voters aggregate incumbent politician's performance data into personalized signals through paying limited attention. Extreme voters' signals exhibit an…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-04-05 Anqi Li , Lin Hu

Ordinal measurements are common outcomes in studies within psychology, as well as in the social and behavioral sciences. Choosing an appropriate regression model for analysing such data poses a difficult task. This paper aims to facilitate…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-03 Stefan Inerle , Markus Pauly , Moritz Berger

Selection bias is a serious potential problem for inference about relationships of scientific interest based on samples without well-defined probability sampling mechanisms. Motivated by the potential for selection bias in (a) estimated…

Stress testing poses a causal question: how would portfolio credit losses change if the macroeconomy followed an adverse counterfactual path? Yet standard practice remains predictive and might be therefore vulnerable to omitted-variable…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Yu Wang , Xiangchen Liu , Siguang Li

The Extended Crosswise Model is a popular randomized response design that employs a sensitive and a randomized innocuous statement, and asks respondents if one of these statements is true, or that none or both are true. The model has a…

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a commonly used substitute for random sampling when studying hidden populations, such as injecting drug users or men who have sex with men, for which no sampling frame is known. The method is an extension…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-05-01 Xin Lu , Jens Malmros , Fredrik Liljeros , Tom Britton

The crosswise model is an increasingly popular survey technique to elicit candid answers from respondents on sensitive questions. Recent studies, however, point out that in the presence of inattentive respondents, the conventional estimator…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-21 Yuki Atsusaka , Randolph T. Stevenson

In randomized controlled trials, ordinal outcomes typically improve statistical efficiency over binary outcomes. The treatment effect on an ordinal outcome is usually described by the odds ratio from a proportional odds model, but this…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-01 Lindsey E. Turner , Carolyn T. Bramante , Thomas A. Murray

Surveys provide important evidence for policymaking, decision-making, and understanding of society. However, conducting the large surveys required to provide subpopulation level estimates is expensive and time-consuming. Multilevel…

Applications · Statistics 2022-05-26 Dewi Amaliah

Learning and evaluating recommender systems from logged implicit feedback is challenging due to exposure bias. While inverse propensity scoring (IPS) corrects this bias, it often suffers from high variance and instability. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Rahul Raja , Arpita Vats

Predictive algorithms inform consequential decisions in settings with selective labels: outcomes are observed only for units selected by past decision makers. This creates an identification problem under unobserved confounding -- when…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-07 Ashesh Rambachan , Amanda Coston , Edward Kennedy