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Ordinary differential equation (ODE) models are widely used to describe systems in many areas of science. To ensure these models provide accurate and interpretable representations of real-world dynamics, it is often necessary to infer…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-24 Selva Salimi , David J. Warne , Christopher Drovandi

We propose a deep generative approach to nonparametric estimation of conditional survival and hazard functions with right-censored data. The key idea of the proposed method is to first learn a conditional generator for the joint conditional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-20 Xingyu Zhou , Wen Su , Changyu Liu , Yuling Jiao , Xingqiu Zhao , Jian Huang

Dynamical systems governed by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) serve as models for a vast number of natural and social phenomena. In this work, we offer a fresh perspective on the classical problem of imputing missing time series…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-17 Patrick Seifner , Kostadin Cvejoski , Antonia Körner , Ramsés J. Sánchez

We consider dynamic sublinear expectations (i.e., time-consistent coherent risk measures) whose scenario sets consist of singular measures corresponding to a general form of volatility uncertainty. We derive a c\`adl\`ag nonlinear…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2013-06-18 Marcel Nutz , H. Mete Soner

Ordinary and stochastic differential equations (ODEs and SDEs) are widely used to model continuous-time processes across various scientific fields. While ODEs offer interpretability and simplicity, SDEs incorporate randomness, providing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Qingchuan Sun , Susanne Ditlevsen

We consider Bayesian nonparametric inference in the right-censoring survival model, where modeling is made at the level of the hazard rate. We derive posterior limiting distributions for linear functionals of the hazard, and then for `many'…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-01 Ismaël Castillo , Stéphanie van der Pas

Credit risk assessment is a crucial aspect of financial decision-making, enabling institutions to predict the likelihood of default and make informed lending decisions. Two prominent methodologies in credit risk modeling are logistic…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-30 Cheng Lee , Hsi Lee

Spurred by tremendous success in pattern matching and prediction tasks, researchers increasingly resort to machine learning to aid original scientific discovery. Given large amounts of observational data about a system, can we uncover the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-31 Hananeh Aliee , Fabian J. Theis , Niki Kilbertus

Irregularly sampled time series with missing values are often observed in multiple real-world applications such as healthcare, climate and astronomy. They pose a significant challenge to standard deep learning models that operate only on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-04 Christian Klötergens , Vijaya Krishna Yalavarthi , Maximilian Stubbemann , Lars Schmidt-Thieme

Ordinary differential equations (ODE's) are widespread models in physics, chemistry and biology. In particular, this mathematical formalism is used for describing the evolution of complex systems and it might consist of high-dimensional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-22 Nicolas J-B. Brunel

Survival Analysis (SA) constitutes the default method for time-to-event modeling due to its ability to estimate event probabilities of sparsely occurring events over time. In this work, we show how to improve the training and inference of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-12 Chris Solomou

We propose a data-driven framework for learning reduced-order moment dynamics from PDE-governed systems using Neural ODEs. In contrast to derivative-based methods like SINDy, which necessitate densely sampled data and are sensitive to…

Pattern Formation and Solitons · Physics 2025-06-06 Shaoxuan Chen , Su Yang , Panayotis G. Kevrekidis , Wei Zhu

Modeling the evolution of system with time-series data is a challenging and critical task in a wide range of fields, especially when the time-series data is regularly sampled and partially observable. Some methods have been proposed to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Mengbang Zou , Weisi Guo

Mechanistic dynamic models of biochemical networks such as Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) contain unknown parameters like the reaction rate constants and the initial concentrations of the compounds. The large number of parameters as…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-08-14 Clemens Kreutz , Andreas Raue , Jens Timmer

In Bayesian semi-parametric analyses of time-to-event data, non-parametric process priors are adopted for the baseline hazard function or the cumulative baseline hazard function for a given finite partition of the time axis. However, it…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-06 Yi Li , Sumi Seo , Kyu Ha Lee

We study nonparametric estimation in dynamical systems described by ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Specifically, we focus on estimating the unknown function $f \colon \mathbb{R}^d \to \mathbb{R}^d$ that governs the system dynamics…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-06 Christof Schötz

In this paper, we model dependence between operational risks by allowing risk profiles to evolve stochastically in time and to be dependent. This allows for a flexible correlation structure where the dependence between frequencies of…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2009-07-31 Gareth W. Peters , Pavel V. Shevchenko , Mario V. Wüthrich

Accurate risk assessment is essential for safety-critical autonomous and control systems under uncertainty. In many real-world settings, stochastic dynamics exhibit asymmetric jumps and long-range memory, making long-term risk probabilities…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-07 Yimeng Sun , Zhuoyuan Wang , Xiaole Zhang , Heng Ping , Jintang Xue , Paul Bogdan , Yorie Nakahira

Ordinary and partial differential equations (ODEs/PDEs) play a paramount role in analyzing and simulating complex dynamic processes across all corners of science and engineering. In recent years machine learning tools are aspiring to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-11 Sifan Wang , Paris Perdikaris

Regular and rapid variation have been extensively studied in the literature and applied across various fields, particularly in extreme value theory. In this paper, we examine regular and rapid variation through the lens of generalized…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-17 Haijun Li