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We argue that the current practice of evaluating AI/ML time-series forecasting models, predominantly on benchmarks characterized by strong, persistent periodicities and seasonalities, obscures real progress by overlooking the performance of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Raeid Saqur , Christoph Bergmeir , Blanka Horvath , Daniel Schmidt , Frank Rudzicz , Terry Lyons

Time series foundation models (FMs) have emerged as a popular paradigm for zero-shot multi-domain forecasting. FMs are trained on numerous diverse datasets and claim to be effective forecasters across multiple different time series domains,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 William Toner , Thomas L. Lee , Artjom Joosen , Rajkarn Singh , Martin Asenov

Although Transformer has made breakthrough success in widespread domains especially in Natural Language Processing (NLP), applying it to time series forecasting is still a great challenge. In time series forecasting, the autoregressive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-01 Kai Chen , Guang Chen , Dan Xu , Lijun Zhang , Yuyao Huang , Alois Knoll

Time series anomaly detection has been recognized as of critical importance for the reliable and efficient operation of real-world systems. Many anomaly detection methods have been developed based on various assumptions on anomaly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-28 Jiuqi Elise Zhang , Di Wu , Benoit Boulet

In the current context of Big Data, the nature of many forecasting problems has changed from predicting isolated time series to predicting many time series from similar sources. This has opened up the opportunity to develop competitive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-23 Hansika Hewamalage , Christoph Bergmeir , Kasun Bandara

Autonomous inspection robots for monitoring industrial sites can reduce costs and risks associated with human-led inspection. However, accurate readings can be challenging due to occlusions, limited viewpoints, or unexpected environmental…

Deploying foundation models in embodied edge systems is fundamentally a systems problem, not just a problem of model compression. Real-time control must operate within strict size, weight, and power constraints, where memory traffic,…

Time-series forecasting finds broad applications in real-world scenarios. Due to the dynamic nature of time series data, it is important for time-series forecasting models to handle potential distribution shifts over time. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-26 Zhiyuan Zhao , Haoxin Liu , B. Aditya Prakash

Traditional time series analysis has long relied on pattern recognition, trained on static and well-established benchmarks. However, in real-world settings -- where policies shift, human behavior adapts, and unexpected events unfold --…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-16 Xinlei Wang , Mingtian Tan , Jing Qiu , Junhua Zhao , Jinjin Gu

Driven by the transition towards a climate-neutral energy system, accurate energy time series forecasting is critical for planning and operation. Yet, it remains largely a dataset-specific task, requiring comprehensive training data,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-27 Marco Obermeier , Marco Pruckner , Florian Haselbeck , Andreas Zeiselmair

Foundation models (FMs) such as large language models have revolutionized the field of AI by showing remarkable performance in various tasks. However, they exhibit numerous limitations that prevent their broader adoption in many real-world…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-05 Debarun Bhattacharjya , Junkyu Lee , Don Joven Agravante , Balaji Ganesan , Radu Marinescu

Time-series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently emerged as a universal paradigm for learning across diverse temporal domains. However, despite their empirical success, the internal mechanisms by which these models represent fundamental…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Atharva Pandey , Abhilash Neog , Gautam Jajoo

Tabular foundation models with different architectures converge in accuracy across a range of classification and regression tasks. This raises questions a leaderboard cannot answer: (i) whether the models execute the same in-context…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Marin Biloš , James T. Wilson , Anderson Schneider , Yuriy Nevmyvaka

Interpretability plays a vital role in aligning and deploying deep learning models in critical care, especially in constantly evolving conditions that influence patient survival. However, common interpretability algorithms face unique…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Shashank Yadav , Vignesh Subbian

It is often claimed that the fundamental laws of physics are deterministic and time-symmetric and that therefore our experience of the passage of time is an illusion. This paper will critically discuss these claims and show that they are…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-04-20 Barbara Drossel

Understanding material failure is critical for designing stronger and lighter structures by identifying weaknesses that could be mitigated. Existing full-physics numerical simulation techniques involve trade-offs between speed, accuracy,…

Transformers are increasingly adopted for modeling and forecasting time-series, yet their internal mechanisms remain poorly understood from a dynamical systems perspective. In contrast to classical autoregressive and state-space models,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-25 Gregory Duthé , Nikolaos Evangelou , Wei Liu , Ioannis G. Kevrekidis , Eleni Chatzi

In 1979 Penrose hypothesized that the arrows of time are explained by the hypothesis that the fundamental laws are time irreversible. That is, our reversible laws, such as the standard model and general relativity are effective, and emerge…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2018-01-17 Marina Cortês , Lee Smolin

Current research in time-series anomaly detection is using definitions that miss critical aspects of how anomaly detection is commonly used in practice. We list several areas that are of practical relevance and that we believe are either…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Andreas Mueller

This paper introduces an Artificial Intelligence (AI) foundation model for time series in engineering applications, where causal operations are required for real-time monitoring and control. Since engineering time series are governed by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-03 Lang Tong , Xinyi Wang
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