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We study the problem of learning the support of transition matrix between random processes in a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model from samples when a subset of the processes are latent. It is well known that ignoring the effect of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-13 Saber Salehkaleybar , Jalal Etesami , Negar Kiyavash , Kun Zhang

The viral load is known to be a chief predictor of the risk of transmission of infectious diseases. In this work, we investigate the role of the individuals' viral load in the disease transmission by proposing a new…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2023-03-29 Rossella Della Marca , Nadia Loy , Andrea Tosin

A common theme among the proposed models for network epidemics is the assumption that the propagating object, i.e., a virus or a piece of information, is transferred across the nodes without going through any modification or evolution.…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-11-05 Rashad Eletreby , Yong Zhuang , Kathleen M. Carley , Osman Yağan , H. Vincent Poor

Latent space models for network data characterize each node through a vector of latent features whose pairwise similarities define the edge probabilities among the pairs of nodes. Although this formulation has led to successful…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-06 Federico Pavone , Daniele Durante , Robin J. Ryder

A key scientific challenge during the outbreak of novel infectious diseases is to predict how the course of the epidemic changes under different countermeasures that limit interaction in the population. Most epidemiological models do not…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-01-25 Mansi Sood , Anirudh Sridhar , Rashad Eletreby , Chai Wah Wu , Simon A. Levin , H. Vincent Poor , Osman Yagan

Traditional model-based RL relies on hand-specified or learned models of transition dynamics of the environment. These methods are sample efficient and facilitate learning in the real world but fail to generalize to subtle variations in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-11 Christian F. Perez , Felipe Petroski Such , Theofanis Karaletsos

Causal representation learning seeks to uncover causal relationships among high-level latent variables from low-level, entangled, and noisy observations. Existing approaches often either rely on deep neural networks, which lack…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Wenjin Zhang , Yixin Wang , Yuqi Gu

The course of an epidemic is not only shaped by infection transmission over face-to-face contacts, but also by preventive behaviour caused by risk perception and social interactions. This study explores the dynamics of coupled awareness and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-02-24 Tim Van Wesemael , Luis E. C. Rocha , Jan M. Baetens

We pose causal inference as the problem of learning to classify probability distributions. In particular, we assume access to a collection $\{(S_i,l_i)\}_{i=1}^n$, where each $S_i$ is a sample drawn from the probability distribution of $X_i…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-05-20 David Lopez-Paz , Krikamol Muandet , Bernhard Schölkopf , Ilya Tolstikhin

Understanding how epidemics spread in a system is a crucial step to prevent and control outbreaks, with broad implications on the system's functioning, health, and associated costs. This can be achieved by identifying the elements at higher…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-03-16 Eugenio Valdano , Chiara Poletto , Armando Giovannini , Diana Palma , Lara Savini , Vittoria Colizza

Identifying latent variables and causal structures from observational data is essential to many real-world applications involving biological data, medical data, and unstructured data such as images and languages. However, this task can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-01 Lingjing Kong , Biwei Huang , Feng Xie , Eric Xing , Yuejie Chi , Kun Zhang

Temporal and causal relations play an important role in determining the dependencies between events. Classifying the temporal and causal relations between events has many applications, such as generating event timelines, event…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-11-10 Kritika Venkatachalam , Raghava Mutharaju , Sumit Bhatia

Understanding the interactions between biomarkers among brain regions during neurodegenerative disease is essential for unravelling the mechanisms underlying disease progression. For example, pathophysiological models of Alzheimer's Disease…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-11-17 Tiantian He , An Zhao , Elinor Thompson , Anna Schroder , Ahmed Abdulaal , Frederik Barkhof , Daniel C. Alexander

We propose an epidemic model for the spread of vector-borne diseases. The model, which is built extending the classical susceptible-infected-susceptible model, accounts for two populations -- humans and vectors -- and for cross-contagion…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-21 Lorenzo Zino , Alessandro Casu , Alessandro Rizzo

Transfer learning enhances model performance by utilizing knowledge from related domains, particularly when labeled data is scarce. While existing research addresses transfer learning under various distribution shifts in independent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-30 Liyuan Wang , Jiachen Chen , Kathryn L. Lunetta , Danyang Huang , Huimin Cheng , Debarghya Mukherjee

Domain shift in histopathology, often caused by differences in acquisition processes or data sources, poses a major challenge to the generalization ability of deep learning models. Existing methods primarily rely on modeling statistical…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Kieu-Anh Truong Thi , Huy-Hieu Pham , Duc-Trong Le

Causal representation learning (CRL) models aim to transform high-dimensional data into a latent space, enabling interventions to generate counterfactual samples or modify existing data based on the causal relationships among latent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-19 Alireza Sadeghi , Wael AbdAlmageed

Whole genome sequencing of pathogens from multiple hosts in an epidemic offers the potential to investigate who infected whom with unparalleled resolution, potentially yielding important insights into disease dynamics and the impact of…

Accurately estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) in longitudinal settings is essential for personalized decision-making across healthcare, public policy, education, and digital marketing. However, time-varying interventions…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-28 Lei Shi , Sizhu Lu , Qiuran Lyu , Peng Ding , Nikos Vlassis

We present a new framework for learning Granger causality networks for multivariate categorical time series, based on the mixture transition distribution (MTD) model. Traditionally, MTD is plagued by a nonconvex objective,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-12 Alex Tank , Emily B. Fox , Ali Shojaie
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