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Motivated by analyzing a national data base of annual air pollution and cardiovascular disease mortality rate for 3100 counties in the U.S. (areal data), we develop a novel statistical framework to automatically detect spatially varying…

Applications · Statistics 2015-11-19 Shuo Chen , Chengsheng Jiang , Lance Waller

The Distributional Random Forest (DRF) is a recently introduced Random Forest algorithm to estimate multivariate conditional distributions. Due to its general estimation procedure, it can be employed to estimate a wide range of targets such…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-12-20 Jeffrey Näf , Corinne Emmenegger , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen

A key challenge in environmental health research is unmeasured spatial confounding, driven by unobserved spatially structured variables that influence both treatment and outcome. A common approach is to fit a spatial regression that models…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-23 Sophie M. Woodward , Francesca Dominici , Jose R. Zubizarreta

Causal inference in spatial domains faces two intertwined challenges: (1) unmeasured spatial factors, such as weather, air pollution, or mobility, that confound treatment and outcome, and (2) interference from nearby treatments that violate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-13 Ayush Khot , Miruna Oprescu , Maresa Schröder , Ai Kagawa , Xihaier Luo

In epidemiological studies of air pollution and public health, estimating the health impact of exposure to air pollution may be hindered by the unknown functional form of the exposure-outcome association and by unmeasured confounding…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-28 Carlo Zaccardi , Pasquale Valentini , Luigi Ippoliti , Alexandra M. Schmidt

This paper presents an approach to estimating the health effects of an environmental hazard. The approach is general in nature, but is applied here to the case of air pollution. It uses a computer model involving ambient pollution and…

Applications · Statistics 2007-11-01 Gavin Shaddick , Duncan Lee , James V. Zidek , Ruth Salway

Exposure assessment is fundamental to air pollution cohort studies. The objective is to predict air pollution exposures for study subjects at locations without data in order to optimize our ability to learn about health effects of air…

Applications · Statistics 2024-06-05 Si Cheng , Magali N. Blanco , Lianne Sheppard , Ali Shojaie , Adam Szpiro

Estimation of the long-term health effects of air pollution is a challenging task, especially when modelling small-area disease incidence data in an ecological study design. The challenge comes from the unobserved underlying spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-05-24 Duncan Lee , Alastair Rushworth , Sujit K. Sahu

There has been a considerable effort to understand and quantify the spatial distribution of species across different ecosystems. Relative species abundance (RSA), beta diversity and species area relationship (SAR) are among the most used…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-09-18 Jacopo Grilli , Sandro Azaele , Jayanth R Banavar , Amos Maritan

The effect of spatial correlations on the spread of infectious diseases was investigated using a stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Recovered) model on complex networks. It was found that in addition to the reduction of the effective…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 J. Verdasca , M. M. Telo da Gama , A. Nunes , N. R. Bernardino , J. M. Pacheco , M. C. Gomes

The estimation from available data of parameters governing epidemics is a major challenge. In addition to usual issues (data often incomplete and noisy), epidemics of the same nature may be observed in several places or over different…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-20 Romain Narci , Maud Delattre , Catherine Larédo , Elisabeta Vergu

Epidemiological investigations of regionally aggregated spatial data often involve detecting spatial health disparities among neighboring regions on a map of disease mortality or incidence rates. Analyzing such data introduces spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-21 Kyle Lin Wu , Sudipto Banerjee

This paper proposes small area estimation methods that utilize generalized tree-based machine learning techniques to improve the estimation of disaggregated means in small areas using discrete survey data. Specifically, we present two…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-09 Nicolas Frink , Timo Schmid

Environmental processes often exhibit complex, non-linear patterns and discontinuities across space and time, posing significant challenges for traditional geostatistical modeling approaches. In this paper, we propose a hybrid…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-06 Mario Figueira , Michela Cameletti , Luca Patelli

Numerous studies have examined the associations between long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and adverse health outcomes. Recently, many of these studies have begun to employ high-resolution predicted PM2.5 concentrations,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-29 Kevin P. Josey , Priyanka deSouza , Xiao Wu , Danielle Braun , Rachel Nethery

Disease mapping is the field of spatial epidemiology interested in estimating the spatial pattern in disease risk across $n$ areal units. One aim is to identify units exhibiting elevated disease risks, so that public health interventions…

Applications · Statistics 2013-11-05 Craig Anderson , Duncan Lee , Nema Dean

Determining subgroups that respond especially well (or poorly) to specific interventions (medical or policy) requires new supervised learning methods tailored specifically for causal inference. Bayesian Causal Forest (BCF) is a recent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-16 Nikolay Krantsevich , Jingyu He , P. Richard Hahn

A typical problem in air pollution epidemiology is exposure assessment for individuals for which health data are available. Due to the sparsity of monitoring sites and the limited temporal frequency with which measurements of air pollutants…

Analysis of observational studies increasingly confronts the challenge of determining which of a possibly high-dimensional set of available covariates are required to satisfy the assumption of ignorable treatment assignment for estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-23 Chanmin Kim , Mauricio Tec , Corwin M Zigler

The health effects of environmental exposures have been studied for decades, typically using standard regression models to assess exposure-outcome associations found in observational non-experimental data. We propose and illustrate a…

Applications · Statistics 2017-09-20 Marie-Abele C. Bind , Donald B. Rubin