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Understanding causal relationships among the variables of a system is paramount to explain and control its behavior. For many real-world systems, however, the true causal graph is not readily available and one must resort to predictions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-20 Elias Eulig , Atalanti A. Mastakouri , Patrick Blöbaum , Michaela Hardt , Dominik Janzing

Temporal Knowledge Graph (TKG) Forecasting aims at predicting links in Knowledge Graphs for future timesteps based on a history of Knowledge Graphs. To this day, standardized evaluation protocols and rigorous comparison across TKG models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-01 Julia Gastinger , Christian Meilicke , Federico Errica , Timo Sztyler , Anett Schuelke , Heiner Stuckenschmidt

Temporal networks are commonly used to represent systems where connections between elements are active only for restricted periods of time, such as networks of telecommunication, neural signal processing, biochemical reactions and human…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2011-11-15 Lauri Kovanen , Márton Karsai , Kimmo Kaski , János Kertész , Jari Saramäki

Confusion often arises when attempting to articulate target estimand(s) of a clinical trial in plain language. We aim to rectify this confusion by using a type of causal graph called the Single-World Intervention Graph (SWIG) to provide a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-06 Alex Ocampo , Jemar R. Bather

Supervised causal learning has shown promise in causal discovery, yet it often struggles with generalization across diverse interventional settings, particularly when intervention targets are unknown. To address this, we propose TICL…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Wei Chen , Rui Ding , Bojun Huang , Yang Zhang , Qiang Fu , Yuxuan Liang , Han Shi , Dongmei Zhang

Temporal Knowledge Graph (TKG), which characterizes temporally evolving facts in the form of (subject, relation, object, timestamp), has attracted much attention recently. TKG reasoning aims to predict future facts based on given historical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-03 Zhongni Hou , Xiaolong Jin , Zixuan Li , Long Bai , Jiafeng Guo , Xueqi Cheng

Causal explanations of the predictions of NLP systems are essential to ensure safety and establish trust. Yet, existing methods often fall short of explaining model predictions effectively or efficiently and are often model-specific. In…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-23 Yair Gat , Nitay Calderon , Amir Feder , Alexander Chapanin , Amit Sharma , Roi Reichart

Many large-scale applications can be elegantly represented using graph structures. Their scalability, however, is often limited by the domain knowledge required to apply them. To address this problem, we propose a novel Causal Temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-20 Abigail Langbridge , Fearghal O'Donncha , Amadou Ba , Fabio Lorenzi , Christopher Lohse , Joern Ploennigs

Comparing counterfactual distributions can provide more nuanced and valuable measures for causal effects, going beyond typical summary statistics such as averages. In this work, we consider characterizing causal effects via distributional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-05 Kwangho Kim , Jisu Kim , Edward H. Kennedy

Temporal graph learning aims to generate high-quality representations for graph-based tasks with dynamic information, which has recently garnered increasing attention. In contrast to static graphs, temporal graphs are typically organized as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-30 Meng Liu , Ke Liang , Yawei Zhao , Wenxuan Tu , Sihang Zhou , Xinbiao Gan , Xinwang Liu , Kunlun He

We study the generic identifiability of causal effects in linear non-Gaussian acyclic models (LiNGAM) with latent variables. We consider the problem in two main settings: When the causal graph is known a priori, and when it is unknown. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-05 Daniele Tramontano , Yaroslav Kivva , Saber Salehkaleybar , Mathias Drton , Negar Kiyavash

Counterfactual instances offer human-interpretable insight into the local behaviour of machine learning models. We propose a general framework to generate sparse, in-distribution counterfactual model explanations which match a desired…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-26 Arnaud Van Looveren , Janis Klaise , Giovanni Vacanti , Oliver Cobb

Temporal networks consisting of timestamped interactions between a set of nodes provide a useful representation for analyzing complex networked systems that evolve over time. Beyond pairwise interactions between nodes, temporal motifs…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Maxwell C. Lee , Kevin S. Xu

In recent years, a growing number of method and application works have adapted and applied the causal-graphical-model framework to time series data. Many of these works employ time-resolved causal graphs that extend infinitely into the past…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-10 Andreas Gerhardus , Jonas Wahl , Sofia Faltenbacher , Urmi Ninad , Jakob Runge

Temporal Knowledge Graph (TKG) reasoning that forecasts future events based on historical snapshots distributed over timestamps is denoted as extrapolation and has gained significant attention. Owing to its extreme versatility and variation…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-07-01 Jinchuan Zhang , Bei Hui , Chong Mu , Ling Tian

Inferring causal relationships in observational time series data is an important task when interventions cannot be performed. Granger causality is a popular framework to infer potential causal mechanisms between different time series. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-22 Zexuan Yin , Paolo Barucca

Causal graphs are commonly used to understand and model complex systems. Researchers often construct these graphs from different perspectives, leading to significant variations for the same problem. Comparing causal graphs is, therefore,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-17 Ning-Yuan Georgia Liu , Flower Yang , Mohammad S. Jalali

Causal inference uses observations to infer the causal structure of the data generating system. We study a class of functional models that we call Time Series Models with Independent Noise (TiMINo). These models require independent residual…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-08-18 Jonas Peters , Dominik Janzing , Bernhard Schölkopf

The use of Internet in the every day life has pushed its evolution in a very fast way. The heterogeneity of the equipments supporting its networks, as well as the different devices from which it can be accessed, have participated in…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2014-04-23 Hadrien Hours , Ernst Biersack , Patrick Loiseau

Temporal Knowledge Graphs (TKGs) store temporal facts with quadruple formats (s, p, o, t). Existing Temporal Knowledge Graph Embedding (TKGE) models perform link prediction tasks in transductive or semi-inductive settings, which means the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Jiaxin Pan , Mojtaba Nayyeri , Osama Mohammed , Daniel Hernandez , Rongchuan Zhang , Cheng Cheng , Steffen Staab
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