Related papers: Reliable Real-Time Value at Risk Estimation via Qu…
In this work, we study the sample complexity problem of risk-sensitive Reinforcement Learning (RL) with a generative model, where we aim to maximize the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) with risk tolerance level $\tau$ at each step, a…
Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is a prominent risk measure in financial engineering, energy systems, and supply chain management. In these domains, Markov decision processes (MDPs) with a long-run CVaR criterion effectively mitigate cost…
Value-at-Risk is one of the most popular risk management tools in the financial industry. Over the past 20 years several attempts to include VaR in the portfolio selection process have been proposed. However, using VaR as a risk measure in…
Model-based offline reinforcement learning (MORL) aims to learn a policy by exploiting a dynamics model derived from an existing dataset. Applying conservative quantification to the dynamics model, most existing works on MORL generate…
In this paper we study variational inequalities (VI) defined by the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of uncertain functions. We introduce stochastic approximation schemes that employ an empirical estimate of the CVaR at each iteration to…
As increasingly popular metrics of worker and institutional quality, estimated value-added (VA) measures are now widely used as dependent or explanatory variables in regressions. For example, VA is used as an explanatory variable when…
Safe navigation for mobile robots demands policies that remain reliable under the high-consequence perception uncertainty of cluttered environments. Yet most existing safe reinforcement learning (RL) methods assess safety through average…
Always-valid concentration inequalities are increasingly used as performance measures for online statistical learning, notably in the learning of generative models and supervised learning. Such inequality advances the online learning…
We study value adaptation in offline-to-online reinforcement learning under general function approximation. Starting from an imperfect offline pretrained $Q$-function, the learner aims to adapt it to the target environment using only a…
The vector autoregression (VAR) has been widely used in system identification, econometrics, natural science, and many other areas. However, when the state dimension becomes large the parameter dimension explodes. So rank reduced modelling…
Random forests are powerful non-parametric regression method but are severely limited in their usage in the presence of randomly censored observations, and naively applied can exhibit poor predictive performance due to the incurred biases.…
In practice, the value-at-risk (VaR) for a longer holding period is often scaled using the 'square root of time rule'. The VaR is determined for a shorter holding period and then scaled up according to the desired holding period. For…
Conformal prediction provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification with finite-sample coverage guarantees. While recent work has extended conformal prediction to online and sequential settings, existing methods typically…
We consider the problem of estimating piecewise regular functions in an online setting, i.e., the data arrive sequentially and at any round our task is to predict the value of the true function at the next revealed point using the available…
Motivated by the prominence of Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) as a measure for tail risk in settings affected by uncertainty, we develop a new formula for approximating CVaR based optimization objectives and their gradients from limited…
Value-at-Risk (VaR) is one of the main regulatory tools used for risk management purposes. However, it is difficult to compute optimal VaR portfolios; that is, an optimal risk-reward portfolio allocation using VaR as the risk measure. This…
Offline Reinforcement Learning (RL) faces distributional shift and unreliable value estimation, especially for out-of-distribution (OOD) actions. To address this, existing uncertainty-based methods penalize the value function with…
Estimating a causal effect from observational data can be biased if we do not control for self-selection. This selection is based on confounding variables that affect the treatment assignment and the outcome. Propensity score methods aim to…
Determining contributions by sub-portfolios or single exposures to portfolio-wide economic capital for credit risk is an important risk measurement task. Often economic capital is measured as Value-at-Risk (VaR) of the portfolio loss…
Quantile regression is a statistical method which, unlike classical regression, aims to predict the conditional quantiles. Classical quantile regression methods face difficulties, particularly when the quantile under consideration is…