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Conformal prediction (CP) provides powerful, distribution-free prediction sets, but its guarantees rely on the exchangeability of training and test data, which is often violated in practice due to covariate shifts. While weighted conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-05 James Wang , Surbhi Goel

Conformal prediction constructs prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees, but its calibration stage is structurally constrained to a scalar score function and a single threshold variable - forcing shapes of prediction sets to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-13 Laura Lützow , Simone Garatti , Marco C. Campi , Lars Lindemann , Matthias Althoff

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free technique for establishing valid prediction intervals. Although conventionally people conduct conformal prediction in the output space, this is not the only possibility. In this paper, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Jiaye Teng , Chuan Wen , Dinghuai Zhang , Yoshua Bengio , Yang Gao , Yang Yuan

Ordinal classification has been widely applied in many high-stakes applications, e.g., medical imaging and diagnosis, where reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for decision making. Conformal prediction (CP) is a general UQ…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-24 Zijian Zhang , Xinyu Chen , Yuanjie Shi , Liyuan Lillian Ma , Zifan Xu , Yan Yan

Hyperdimensional Computing (HDC) offers a computationally efficient paradigm for neuromorphic learning. Yet, it lacks rigorous uncertainty quantification, leading to open decision boundaries and, consequently, vulnerability to outliers,…

Conformal prediction is a learning framework controlling prediction coverage of prediction sets, which can be built on any learning algorithm for point prediction. This work proposes a learning framework named conformal loss-controlling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Di Wang , Ping Wang , Zhong Ji , Xiaojun Yang , Hongyue Li

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular framework for constructing prediction bands with valid coverage in finite samples, while being free of any distributional assumption. A well-known limitation of conformal prediction is the lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Louis Allain , Sébastien da Veiga , Brian Staber

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) enables learning effective policies from fixed datasets without any environment interaction. Existing methods typically employ policy constraints to mitigate the distribution shift encountered during…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-30 Tan Jing , Xiaorui Li , Chao Yao , Xiaojuan Ban , Yuetong Fang , Renjing Xu , Zhaolin Yuan

Compliance plays a crucial role in manipulation, as it balances between the concurrent control of position and force under uncertainties. Yet compliance is often overlooked by today's visuomotor policies that solely focus on position…

Conformal Prediction (CP) serves as a robust framework that quantifies uncertainty in predictions made by Machine Learning (ML) models. Unlike traditional point predictors, CP generates statistically valid prediction regions, also known as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-29 A. A. Balinsky , A. D. Balinsky

Stabilizing unstable periodic orbits in a chaotic invariant set not only reveals information about its structure but also leads to various interesting applications. For the successful application of a chaos control scheme, convergence speed…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2016-10-10 Christian Bick , Marc Timme , Christoph Kolodziejski

Deep learning models for medical imaging often exhibit overconfidence, creating safety risks in ambiguous diagnostic scenarios. While Conformal Prediction (CP) provides distribution-free statistical guarantees, standard methods such as…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-14 One Octadion , Novanto Yudistira , Lailil Muflikhah

Conformal Prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, but its reliance on a single global calibration threshold obscures the sources of uncertainty at the instance level. In particular, it conflates…

Quantifying uncertainty is critical for the safe deployment of ranking models in real-world applications. Recent work offers a rigorous solution using conformal prediction in a full ranking scenario, which aims to construct prediction sets…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Wenbo Liao , Huipeng Huang , Chen Jia , Huajun Xi , Hao Zeng , Hongxin Wei

Conformal Prediction methods have finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees. However, they generally do not offer conditional coverage guarantees, which can be important for high-stakes decisions. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-27 Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , James McInerney , Nathan Kallus

Future trajectories play an important role across domains such as autonomous driving, hurricane forecasting, and epidemic modeling, where practitioners commonly generate ensemble paths by sampling probabilistic models or leveraging multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Ruipu Li , Daniel Menacho , Alexander Rodríguez

Conformal prediction constructs a confidence set for an unobserved response of a feature vector based on previous identically distributed and exchangeable observations of responses and features. It has a coverage guarantee at any nominal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-08 Eugene Ndiaye , Ichiro Takeuchi

The rapid growth of AI applications is dramatically increasing data center energy demand, exacerbating carbon emissions, and necessitating a shift towards 24/7 carbon-free energy (CFE). Unlike traditional annual energy matching, 24/7 CFE…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-07 Yijie Yang , Jian Shi , Dan Wang , Chenye Wu , Zhu Han

While existing depression prediction methods based on deep learning show promise, their practical application is hindered by the lack of trustworthiness, as these deep models are often deployed as black box models, leaving us uncertain on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Yonghong Li , Xiuzhuang Zhou

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) excel in diverse tasks, yet their applications in high-stakes domains are often hampered by unreliable predictions. Although numerous uncertainty quantification methods have been proposed to address this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-22 Tianyi Zhao , Jian Kang , Lu Cheng