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Online conformal prediction (OCP) wraps around any pre-trained predictor to produce prediction sets with coverage guarantees that hold irrespective of temporal dependencies or distribution shifts. However, standard OCP faces two key…
Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building…
Based on the framework of Conformal Prediction (CP), we study the online construction of confidence sets given a black-box machine learning model. By converting the target confidence levels into quantile levels, the problem can be reduced…
Conformal prediction is a framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets for previously unseen data, guaranteeing coverage of the true label with a specified probability. However, the efficiency of these prediction…
Conformal prediction (CP) provides a comprehensive framework to produce statistically rigorous uncertainty sets for black-box machine learning models. To further improve the efficiency of CP, conformal correction is proposed to fine-tune or…
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty estimation framework that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true answer with a user-specified probability. Intuitively, the size of the prediction set encodes a…
We study the problem of offline changepoint localization in a distribution-free setting. One observes a vector of data with a single changepoint, assuming that the data before and after the changepoint are iid (or more generally…
Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing…
Conformal Prediction (CP) quantifies network uncertainty by building a small prediction set with a pre-defined probability that the correct class is within this set. In this study we tackle the problem of CP calibration based on a…
Large language models have achieved impressive performance across diverse tasks. However, their tendency to produce overconfident and factually incorrect outputs, known as hallucinations, poses risks in real world applications. Conformal…
Reliable confidence estimates are important for safely deploying vision-based controllers in autonomous racing, where safety predictions must be derived from camera images, yet modern predictors become dangerously overconfident under…
Continual Learning (CL) is essential for enabling self-evolving large language models (LLMs) to adapt and remain effective amid rapid knowledge growth. Yet, despite its importance, little attention has been given to establishing statistical…
Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a method to control nonlinear systems with guaranteed stability and constraint satisfaction but suffers from high computation times. Approximate MPC (AMPC) with neural networks (NNs) has emerged to address…
We consider network-based decentralized optimization problems, where each node in the network possesses a local function and the objective is to collectively attain a consensus solution that minimizes the sum of all the local functions. A…
Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in…
Conformal prediction provides a principled framework for constructing predictive sets with finite-sample validity. While much of the focus has been on univariate response variables, existing multivariate methods either impose rigid…
Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a statistical framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets with coverage guarantees. While CP yields uncontrolled prediction set sizes, Backward Conformal Prediction (BCP)…
Existing evaluations of conformal prediction, such as prediction efficiency and test-conditional coverage, are defined in expectation over the calibration data. In practice, when only one calibration set of limited size is available,…
Conformal prediction (CP) transforms any model's output into prediction sets guaranteed to include (cover) the true label. CP requires exchangeability, a relaxation of the i.i.d. assumption, to obtain a valid distribution-free coverage…
We study the problem of post-selection predictive inference in an online fashion. To avoid devoting resources to unimportant units, a preliminary selection of the current individual before reporting its prediction interval is common and…