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This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-22 Zhendong Wang , Ruijiang Gao , Mingzhang Yin , Mingyuan Zhou , David M. Blei

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a principled framework for quantifying uncertainty in blackbox learning models, by constructing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Traditional approaches rely on scalar nonconformity scores,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-07 Gauthier Thurin , Kimia Nadjahi , Claire Boyer

In drug discovery, it is vital to confirm the predictions of pharmaceutical properties from computational models using costly wet-lab experiments. Hence, obtaining reliable uncertainty estimates is crucial for prioritizing drug molecules…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-19 Siddhartha Laghuvarapu , Zhen Lin , Jimeng Sun

In regression problems where there is no known true underlying model, conformal prediction methods enable prediction intervals to be constructed without any assumptions on the distribution of the underlying data, except that the training…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-31 Wenyu Chen , Kelli-Jean Chun , Rina Foygel Barber

Conformal prediction has recently emerged as a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of a predictive model; these algorithms modify the model to output sets of labels that are guaranteed to contain the true label with high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Botong Zhang , Shuo Li , Osbert Bastani

Numerous retrieval models, including sparse, dense and llm-based methods, have demonstrated remarkable performance in predicting the relevance between queries and corpora. However, the preliminary effectiveness analysis experiments indicate…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-12-17 Tian-Yi Che , Xian-Ling Mao , Chun Xu , Cheng-Xin Xin , Heng-Da Xu , Jin-Yu Liu , Heyan Huang

As deep neural networks are more commonly deployed in high-stakes domains, their black-box nature makes uncertainty quantification challenging. We investigate the presentation of conformal prediction sets--a distribution-free class of…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-04-29 Dongping Zhang , Angelos Chatzimparmpas , Negar Kamali , Jessica Hullman

This paper presents a comprehensive empirical analysis of conformal prediction methods on a challenging aerial image dataset featuring diverse events in unconstrained environments. Conformal prediction is a powerful post-hoc technique that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-25 Farhad Pourkamali-Anaraki

Evaluating the quality and variability of text generated by Large Language Models (LLMs) poses a significant, yet unresolved research challenge. Traditional evaluation methods, such as ROUGE and BERTScore, which measure token similarity,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-01-05 Wendi Cui , Jiaxin Zhang , Zhuohang Li , Lopez Damien , Kamalika Das , Bradley Malin , Sricharan Kumar

Selective classification allows models to abstain from making predictions (e.g., say "I don't know") when in doubt in order to obtain better effective accuracy. While typical selective models can be effective at producing more accurate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-24 Adam Fisch , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method for constructing prediction sets with marginal finite-sample coverage guarantees, making it a suitable framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical object…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Christopher Ries , Moussa Kassem Sbeyti , Nicolas Bianco , Nadja Klein

Conformal Prediction is a widely studied technique to construct prediction sets of future observations. Most conformal prediction methods focus on achieving the necessary coverage guarantees, but do not provide formal guarantees on the size…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Chao Gao , Liren Shan , Vaidehi Srinivas , Aravindan Vijayaraghavan

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty estimation framework that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true answer with a user-specified probability. Intuitively, the size of the prediction set encodes a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Fabio Valerio Massoli , Christos Louizos , Arash Behboodi

Despite their empirical success, most existing listwiselearning-to-rank (LTR) models are not built to be robust to errors in labeling or annotation, distributional data shift, or adversarial data perturbations. To fill this gap, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-28 Shahabeddin Sotudian , Ruidi Chen , Ioannis Paschalidis

Modern image classifiers are very accurate, but the predictions come without uncertainty estimates. Conformal predictors provide uncertainty estimates by computing a set of classes containing the correct class with a user-specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-06 Fatih Furkan Yilmaz , Reinhard Heckel

Research on Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) detection focuses mainly on building scores that efficiently distinguish OOD data from In Distribution (ID) data. On the other hand, Conformal Prediction (CP) uses non-conformity scores to construct…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-19 Paul Novello , Joseba Dalmau , Léo Andeol

When selecting from a list of potential candidates, it is important to ensure not only that the selected items are of high quality, but also that they are sufficiently dissimilar so as to both avoid redundancy and to capture a broader range…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-25 Yash Nair , Ying Jin , James Yang , Emmanuel Candes

Conformal prediction provides finite-sample, distribution-free coverage under exchangeability, but standard constructions may lack robustness in the presence of outliers or heavy tails. We propose a robust conformal method based on a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Alejandro Cholaquidis , Emilien Joly , Leonardo Moreno

Deep regression models typically learn in an end-to-end fashion without explicitly emphasizing a regression-aware representation. Consequently, the learned representations exhibit fragmentation and fail to capture the continuous nature of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-11 Kaiwen Zha , Peng Cao , Jeany Son , Yuzhe Yang , Dina Katabi

In text classification tasks, models often rely on spurious correlations for predictions, incorrectly associating irrelevant features with the target labels. This issue limits the robustness and generalization of models, especially when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Yuqing Zhou , Ziwei Zhu