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Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying machine learning systems in high-stakes domains. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees but often produces overly large prediction sets, limiting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Yunpeng Xu , Wenge Guo , Zhi Wei

In this paper, we analyze failure cases of state-of-the-art detectors and observe that most hard false positives result from classification instead of localization and they have a large negative impact on the performance of object…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-12-10 Bowen Cheng , Yunchao Wei , Rogerio Feris , Jinjun Xiong , Wen-mei Hwu , Thomas Huang , Humphrey Shi

Deep learning based cervical cancer classification can potentially increase access to screening in low-resource regions. However, deep learning models are often overconfident and do not reliably reflect diagnostic uncertainty. Moreover,…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-15 Misgina Tsighe Hagos , Antti Suutala , Dmitrii Bychkov , Hakan Kücükel , Joar von Bahr , Milda Poceviciute , Johan Lundin , Nina Linder , Claes Lundström

Conformal prediction is widely used to equip black-box machine learning models with uncertainty quantification, offering formal coverage guarantees under exchangeable data. However, these guarantees fail when faced with subpopulation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Nien-Shao Wang , Duygu Nur Yaldiz , Yavuz Faruk Bakman , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy

Conformal prediction is a popular technique for constructing prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage guarantees. The coverage is marginal, meaning it only holds on average over the entire population but not necessarily for any…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-28 Yao Zhang , Emmanuel J. Candès

In this paper, we focus on the problem of conformal prediction with conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to construct nontrivial prediction sets with full conditional coverage guarantees. A wealth of research…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-29 Shayan Kiyani , George Pappas , Hamed Hassani

Deep neural networks have achieved remarkable success across a variety of tasks, yet they often suffer from unreliable probability estimates. As a result, they can be overconfident in their predictions. Conformal Prediction (CP) offers a…

Large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive performance in reasoning benchmarks with the emergence of Chain-of-Thought (CoT), particularly in multi-choice question (MCQ). However, current works equally resolve questions regardless of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-04-04 Zijie Meng , Yan Zhang , Zhaopeng Feng , Zuozhu Liu

We study high-dimensional rank regression when data are distributed across multiple machines and the loss is a non-additive U-statistic, as in convoluted rank regression (CRR). Classical communication-efficient surrogate likelihood (CSL)…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-05 Wen Zhang , Liping Zhu , Songshan Yang

Post-hoc calibration of pre-trained models is critical for ensuring reliable inference, especially in safety-critical domains such as healthcare. Conformal Prediction (CP) offers a robust post-hoc calibration framework, providing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Haifeng Wen , Hong Xing , Osvaldo Simeone

This paper presents communication-constrained distributed conformal risk control (CD-CRC) framework, a novel decision-making framework for sensor networks under communication constraints. Targeting multi-label classification problems, such…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-02-25 Meiyi Zhu , Matteo Zecchin , Sangwoo Park , Caili Guo , Chunyan Feng , Petar Popovski , Osvaldo Simeone

Scale-calibrated ranking systems are ubiquitous in real-world applications nowadays, which pursue accurate ranking quality and calibrated probabilistic predictions simultaneously. For instance, in the advertising ranking system, the…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-06-13 Shunyu Zhang , Hu Liu , Wentian Bao , Enyun Yu , Yang Song

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification method that has gained popularity in the machine learning community due to its finite-sample guarantees and ease of use. Its most common variant, dubbed split conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Christos Louizos

Modern deep learning based classifiers show very high accuracy on test data but this does not provide sufficient guarantees for safe deployment, especially in high-stake AI applications such as medical diagnosis. Usually, predictions are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-09 David Stutz , Krishnamurthy , Dvijotham , Ali Taylan Cemgil , Arnaud Doucet

Deep learning models in robotics often output point estimates with poorly calibrated confidences, offering no native mechanism to quantify predictive reliability under novel, noisy, or out-of-distribution inputs. Conformal prediction (CP)…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Divake Kumar , Sina Tayebati , Francesco Migliarba , Ranganath Krishnan , Amit Ranjan Trivedi

Conformal prediction constructs a confidence set for an unobserved response of a feature vector based on previous identically distributed and exchangeable observations of responses and features. It has a coverage guarantee at any nominal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-08 Eugene Ndiaye , Ichiro Takeuchi

We address the problem of uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting by exploiting observations at correlated sequences. Relational deep learning methods leveraging graph representations are among the most effective tools for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Andrea Cini , Alexander Jenkins , Danilo Mandic , Cesare Alippi , Filippo Maria Bianchi

In recent times, deep neural networks achieved outstanding predictive performance on various classification and pattern recognition tasks. However, many real-world prediction problems have ordinal response variables, and this ordering…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-28 Xintong Shi , Wenzhi Cao , Sebastian Raschka

Predictive models trained on observational data often fail to generalise to the distributions they encounter when deployed, especially when the training data is a product of the system being optimised. Recommender systems are a canonical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-27 Yorgos Felekis , Michael O'Riordan , Oriol Corcoll , Ciarán M. Gilligan-Lee

Conformal prediction is a powerful framework for distribution-free uncertainty quantification. The standard approach to conformal prediction relies on comparing the ranks of prediction scores: under exchangeability, the rank of a future…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-07 Etienne Gauthier , Francis Bach , Michael I. Jordan