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In order to implement disease-specific interventions in young age groups, policy makers in low- and middle-income countries require timely and accurate estimates of age- and cause-specific child mortality. High quality data is not available…

The United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 aims to reduce under-5 child mortality to 25 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2030. Child mortality tends to be concentrated in developing regions where much of the information needed to…

Applications · Statistics 2018-10-10 Katie Wilson , Jon Wakefield

Estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) are used to track progress in reducing child mortality and to evaluate countries' performance related to Millennium Development Goal 4. However, for the great majority of developing…

Applications · Statistics 2015-01-20 Leontine Alkema , Jin Rou New

In recent years, much of the focus in monitoring child mortality has been on assessing changes in the under-five mortality rate (U5MR). However, as the U5MR decreases, the share of neonatal deaths (within the first month) tends to increase,…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-14 Monica Alexander , Leontine Alkema

The maternal mortality ratio (MMR) is defined as the number of maternal deaths in a population per 100,000 live births. Country-specific MMR estimates are published on a regular basis by the United Nations Maternal Mortality Estimation…

The Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is the number of infants per 1000 that do not survive until their first birthday. It is an important metric providing information about infant health but it also measures the society's general health status.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-26 Antonia Saravanou , Clemens Noelke , Nicholas Huntington , Dolores Acevedo-Garcia , Dimitrios Gunopulos

Most studies on inequality in infant and child mortality compare average mortality rates between large groups of births, for example, comparing births from different countries, income groups, ethnicities, or different times. These studies…

Applications · Statistics 2019-12-23 Antonio P. Ramos , Robert E. Weiss

BACKGROUND. The majority of countries in Africa and nearly one third of all countries require mortality models to infer complete age schedules of mortality, required for population estimates, projections/forecasts and many other tasks in…

Applications · Statistics 2016-12-06 Samuel J. Clark

Accurate estimates of the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) in a developing world context are a key barometer of the health of a nation. This paper describes new models to analyze survey data on mortality in this context. We are interested in…

Although traditional literature on mortality modeling has focused on single countries in isolation, recent contributions have progressively moved toward joint models for multiple countries. Besides favoring borrowing of information to…

Applications · Statistics 2025-04-08 Giovanni Romanò , Emanuele Aliverti , Daniele Durante

Accurate and precise estimates of the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) are an important health summary for countries. However, full survival curves allow us to better understand the pattern of mortality in children under five. Modern…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-19 Taylor Okonek , Katherine Wilson , Jon Wakefield

Understanding the underlying causes of maternal death across all regions of the world is essential to inform policies and resource allocation to reduce the mortality burden. However, in many countries there exists very little data on the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-12-09 Monica Alexander , Michael Y. C. Chong , Marija Pejcinovska

Civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems should be the primary source of mortality data for governments. Accurate and timely measurement of the completeness of death registration helps inform interventions to improve CRVS…

Applications · Statistics 2023-10-04 Jairo Fúquene Patiño , Tim Adair

This work introduces a Bayesian smoothing approach for the joint graduation of mortality rates across multiple populations. In particular, dynamical linear models are used to induce smoothness across ages through structured dependence,…

Producing subnational estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) is a vital goal for the United Nations to reduce inequalities in mortality and well-being across the globe. There is a great disparity in U5MR between high-income and…

Applications · Statistics 2023-09-06 Connor Gascoigne , Theresa Smith , John Paige , Jon Wakefield

We investigate state-level age-specific mortality trends based on the United States Mortality Database (USMDB) published by the Human Mortality Database. In tandem with looking at the longevity experience across the 51 states, we also…

Applications · Statistics 2026-03-04 Mike Ludkovski , Doris Padilla

Reliable mortality estimates at the subnational level are essential in the study of health inequalities within a country. One of the difficulties in producing such estimates is the presence of small populations, where the stochastic…

Applications · Statistics 2017-12-05 Monica Alexander , Emilio Zagheni , Magali Barbieri

\noindent The modal age at death is an increasingly used measure for understanding longevity and mortality patterns. However, existing estimation methods focus on point estimates, overlooking the inherent variability and uncertainty in…

Applications · Statistics 2025-10-07 Silvio C. Patricio , Paola Vazquez-Castillo

A multilevel functional data method is adapted for forecasting age-specific mortality for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses multilevel functional principal component…

Applications · Statistics 2016-09-30 Han Lin Shang

Adult death rates are a critical indicator of population health and wellbeing. Wealthy countries have high-quality vital registration systems, but poor countries lack this infrastructure and must rely on estimates that are often…

Applications · Statistics 2017-08-01 Dennis M. Feehan , Mary Mahy , Matthew J. Salganik
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