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Related papers: Demystifying Prediction Powered Inference

200 papers

In many real-world applications, researchers aim to deploy models trained in a source domain to a target domain, where obtaining labeled data is often expensive, time-consuming, or even infeasible. While most existing literature assumes…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-26 Seong-ho Lee , Yanyuan Ma , Jiwei Zhao

Biological data are extremely diverse, complex but also quite sparse. The recent developments in deep learning methods are offering new possibilities for the analysis of complex data. However, it is easy to be get a deep learning model that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-21 Florian Richoux , Charlène Servantie , Cynthia Borès , Stéphane Téletchéa

Constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees for unobserved outcomes is a core problem in modern statistics. Methods for predictive inference have been developed for a wide range of settings, but usually only consider test data…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-11 Yonghoon Lee , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen , Edgar Dobriban

A conventional Bayesian approach to prediction uses the posterior distribution to integrate out parameters in a density for unobserved data conditional on the observed data and parameters. When the true posterior is intractable, it is…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-27 Lucas Kock , Scott A. Sisson , G. S. Rodrigues , David J. Nott

Recent work (Feng et al., 2018) establishes the presence of short, uninterpretable input fragments that yield high confidence and accuracy in neural models. We refer to these as Minimal Prediction Preserving Inputs (MPPIs). In the context…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-03-26 Shayne Longpre , Yi Lu , Christopher DuBois

We establish a formal connection between the decades-old surrogate outcome model in biostatistics and economics and the emerging field of prediction-powered inference (PPI). The connection treats predictions from pre-trained models,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-17 Wenlong Ji , Lihua Lei , Tijana Zrnic

The proliferation of computing devices has brought about an opportunity to deploy machine learning models on new problem domains using previously inaccessible data. Traditional algorithms for training such models often require data to be…

We develop a method to generate prediction sets with a guaranteed coverage rate that is robust to corruptions in the training data, such as missing or noisy variables. Our approach builds on conformal prediction, a powerful framework to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-10 Shai Feldman , Yaniv Romano

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is an approach to statistical inference where simulations from an assumed model are used to construct estimators and confidence sets. SBI is often used when the likelihood is intractable and to construct…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Lorenzo Tomaselli , Valérie Ventura , Larry Wasserman

Large language models (LLMs) offer an inexpensive yet powerful way to annotate text, but are often inconsistent when compared with experts. These errors can bias downstream estimates of population parameters such as regression coefficients…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-22 Nicolas Audinet de Pieuchon , Adel Daoud , Connor T. Jerzak , Moa Johansson , Richard Johansson

In supervised machine learning, privileged information (PI) is information that is unavailable at inference, but is accessible during training time. Research on learning using privileged information (LUPI) aims to transfer the knowledge…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Danil Provodin , Bram van den Akker , Christina Katsimerou , Maurits Kaptein , Mykola Pechenizkiy

Variational inference (VI) has become the method of choice for fitting many modern probabilistic models. However, practitioners are faced with a fragmented literature that offers a bewildering array of algorithmic options. First, the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-29 Thang D. Bui , Cuong V. Nguyen , Siddharth Swaroop , Richard E. Turner

Conformal prediction is a framework for predictive inference with a distribution-free, finite-sample guarantee. However, it tends to provide uninformative prediction sets when calibration data are scarce. This paper introduces…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Meshi Bashari , Roy Maor Lotan , Yonghoon Lee , Edgar Dobriban , Yaniv Romano

This paper addresses a significant gap in explainable AI: the necessity of interpreting epistemic uncertainty in model explanations. Although current methods mainly focus on explaining predictions, with some including uncertainty, they fail…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Helena Löfström , Tuwe Löfström , Johan Hallberg Szabadvary

We propose a network architecture capable of reliably estimating uncertainty of regression based predictions without sacrificing accuracy. The current state-of-the-art uncertainty algorithms either fall short of achieving prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-22 Kinjal Patel , Steven Waslander

The rapid proliferation of high-quality synthetic data -- generated by advanced AI models or collected as auxiliary data from related tasks -- presents both opportunities and challenges for statistical inference. This paper introduces a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-19 Meshi Bashari , Yonghoon Lee , Roy Maor Lotan , Edgar Dobriban , Yaniv Romano

Modern multi-modal and multi-site data frequently suffer from blockwise missingness, where subsets of features are missing for groups of individuals, creating complex patterns that challenge standard inference methods. Existing approaches…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-18 Sarah Zhao , Emmanuel Candès

The expense of acquiring labels in large-scale statistical machine learning makes partially and weakly-labeled data attractive, though it is not always apparent how to leverage such data for model fitting or validation. We present a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-10 Maxime Cauchois , Suyash Gupta , Alnur Ali , John Duchi

A pseudo independent (PI) model is a probabilistic domain model (PDM) where proper subsets of a set of collectively dependent variables display marginal independence. PI models cannot be learned correctly by many algorithms that rely on a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-08 Jun Hu , Yang Xiang

Among the most critical limitations of deep learning NLP models are their lack of interpretability, and their reliance on spurious correlations. Prior work proposed various approaches to interpreting the black-box models to unveil the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-10-08 Xiaochuang Han , Yulia Tsvetkov