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In this paper we study a rational inattention model in environments where the decision maker faces uncertainty about the true prior distribution over states. The decision maker seeks to select a stochastic choice rule over a finite set of…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-05-08 Emerson Melo

Probabilistic control design is founded on the principle that a rational agent attempts to match modelled with an arbitrary desired closed-loop system trajectory density. The framework was originally proposed as a tractable alternative to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-16 Tom Lefebvre

Selecting cost-effective optimal sensor configurations for subsequent inference of parameters in black-box stochastic systems faces significant computational barriers. We propose a novel and robust approach, modelling the joint distribution…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-04 Paula Cordero-Encinar , Tobias Schröder , Peter Yatsyshin , Andrew Duncan

Standard geostatistical models assume second order stationarity of the underlying Random Function. In some instances, there is little reason to expect the spatial dependence structure to be stationary over the whole region of interest. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-04 Francky Fouedjio , Nicolas Desassis , Jacques Rivoirard

In this paper we consider the use of probabilistic or random models within a classical trust-region framework for optimization of deterministic smooth general nonlinear functions. Our method and setting differs from many stochastic…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-04-11 Afonso S. Bandeira , Katya Scheinberg , Luis Nunes Vicente

Performative learning addresses the increasingly pervasive situations in which algorithmic decisions may induce changes in the data distribution as a consequence of their public deployment. We propose a novel view in which these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Edwige Cyffers , Muni Sreenivas Pydi , Jamal Atif , Olivier Cappé

We study statistical inference and distributionally robust solution methods for stochastic optimization problems, focusing on confidence intervals for optimal values and solutions that achieve exact coverage asymptotically. We develop a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-03 John Duchi , Peter Glynn , Hongseok Namkoong

Many structural econometric models include latent variables on whose probability distributions one may wish to place minimal restrictions. Leading examples in panel data models are individual-specific variables sometimes treated as "fixed…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-01-15 Andrew Chesher , Adam M. Rosen , Yuanqi Zhang

In the study of natural and artificial complex systems, responses that are not completely determined by the considered decision variables are commonly modelled probabilistically, resulting in response distributions varying across decision…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-07 Athénaïs Gautier , David Ginsbourger , Guillaume Pirot

Approximations of functions with finite data often do not respect certain "structural" properties of the functions. For example, if a given function is non-negative, a polynomial approximation of the function is not necessarily also…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-08-20 Vidhi Zala , Robert M. Kirby , Akil Narayan

We present an application of the theory of stochastic processes to model and categorize non-equilibrium physical phenomena. The concepts of uniformly continuous probability measures and modular evolution lead to a systematic hierarchical…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2009-08-18 Enrique Hernandez-Lemus , Jesus K. Estrada-Gil

This paper discusses a methodology for determining a functional representation of a random process from a collection of scattered pointwise samples. The present work specifically focuses onto random quantities lying in a high dimensional…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-01-03 Lionel Mathelin

The accuracy of probability distributions inferred using machine-learning algorithms heavily depends on data availability and quality. In practical applications it is therefore fundamental to investigate the robustness of a statistical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-01 Christiane Goergen , Manuele Leonelli

A statistical, data-driven method is presented that quantifies influences between variables of a dynamical system. The method is based on finding a suitable representation of points by fuzzy affiliations with respect to landmark points…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-03-14 Niklas Wulkow

Machine learning methods have significantly improved in their predictive capabilities, but at the same time they are becoming more complex and less transparent. As a result, explainers are often relied on to provide interpretability to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Zulqarnain Khan , Davin Hill , Aria Masoomi , Joshua Bone , Jennifer Dy

In data-driven SHM, the signals recorded from systems in operation can be noisy and incomplete. Data corresponding to each of the operational, environmental, and damage states are rarely available a priori; furthermore, labelling to…

We study the convergence of random function iterations for finding an invariant measure of the corresponding Markov operator. We call the problem of finding such an invariant measure the stochastic fixed point problem. This generalizes…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-04-16 Neal Hermer , D. Russell Luke , Anja Sturm

We consider a generalization of the weighted random ball model. The model is driven by a random Poisson measure with a product heavy tailed intensity measure. Such a model typically represents the transmission of a network of stations with…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-03-01 Jean-Christophe Breton , Clement Dombry

Challenging research in various fields has driven a wide range of methodological advances in variable selection for regression models with high-dimensional predictors. In comparison, selection of nonlinear functions in models with additive…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-03-05 Fabian Scheipl , Thomas Kneib , Ludwig Fahrmeir

Conventional Monte Carlo simulations are stochastic in the sense that the acceptance of a trial move is decided by comparing a computed acceptance probability with a random number, uniformly distributed between 0 and 1. Here we consider the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-05-24 Daan Frenkel , K. Julian Schrenk , Stefano Martiniani