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We define a characteristic function for probability measures on the signatures of geometric rough paths. We determine sufficient conditions under which a random variable is uniquely determined by its expected signature, thus partially…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-19 Ilya Chevyrev , Terry Lyons

The space of value functions is a fundamental concept in reinforcement learning. Characterizing its geometric properties may provide insights for optimization and representation. Existing works mainly focus on the value space for Markov…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-12 Kaixin Wang , Navdeep Kumar , Kuangqi Zhou , Bryan Hooi , Jiashi Feng , Shie Mannor

Robustness of linear systems with constant coefficients is considered. There exist methods and tools for analyzing the stability of systems with random or deterministic uncertainties. At the same time, there are no approaches for the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-12-08 Andrey Tremba

The softmax representation of probabilities for categorical variables plays a prominent role in modern machine learning with numerous applications in areas such as large scale classification, neural language modeling and recommendation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-01 Michalis K. Titsias

Robust estimation has played an important role in statistical and machine learning. However, its applications to functional linear regression are still under-developed. In this paper, we focus on Huber's loss with a diverging robustness…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-18 Ling Peng , Xiaohui Liu , Heng Lian

We consider sensitivity of a generic stochastic optimization problem to model uncertainty. We take a non-parametric approach and capture model uncertainty using Wasserstein balls around the postulated model. We provide explicit formulae for…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-01-19 Daniel Bartl , Samuel Drapeau , Jan Obloj , Johannes Wiesel

Irregular functional data in which densely sampled curves are observed over different ranges pose a challenge for modeling and inference, and sensitivity to outlier curves is a concern in applications. Motivated by applications in…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-14 Yeonjoo Park , Xiaohui Chen , Douglas G. Simpson

We present theory and algorithms for the computation of probability-weighted "keep-out" sets to assure probabilistically safe navigation in the presence of multiple rigid body obstacles with stochastic dynamics. Our forward stochastic…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-09-20 Abraham P. Vinod , Meeko M. K. Oishi

We propose a method for variable selection in the intensity function of spatial point processes that combines sparsity-promoting estimation with noise-robust model selection. As high-resolution spatial data becomes increasingly available…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-30 Dominik Sturm , Ivo F. Sbalzarini

In this paper, we propose and analyze a trust-region model-based algorithm for solving unconstrained stochastic optimization problems. Our framework utilizes random models of an objective function $f(x)$, obtained from stochastic…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-09-26 Ruobing Chen , Matt Menickelly , Katya Scheinberg

In this paper, by proposing two new kinds of distributional uncertainty sets, we explore robustness of distortion risk measures against distributional uncertainty. To be precise, we first consider a distributional uncertainty set which is…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-08-15 Xiangyu Han , Yijun Hu , Ran Wang , Linxiao Wei

We describe a method to perform functional operations on probability distributions of random variables. The method uses reproducing kernel Hilbert space representations of probability distributions, and it is applicable to all operations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-14 Bernhard Schölkopf , Krikamol Muandet , Kenji Fukumizu , Jonas Peters

Maximizing high-dimensional, non-convex functions through noisy observations is a notoriously hard problem, but one that arises in many applications. In this paper, we tackle this challenge by modeling the unknown function as a sample from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-03 Bo Chen , Rui Castro , Andreas Krause

We introduce the localized Lasso, which is suited for learning models that are both interpretable and have a high predictive power in problems with high dimensionality $d$ and small sample size $n$. More specifically, we consider a function…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-17 Makoto Yamada , Koh Takeuchi , Tomoharu Iwata , John Shawe-Taylor , Samuel Kaski

We propose a cautious Bayesian variable selection routine by investigating the sensitivity of a hierarchical model, where the regression coefficients are specified by spike and slab priors. We exploit the use of latent variables to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-20 Tathagata Basu , Matthias C. M. Troffaes , Jochen Einbeck

This paper deals with the problem of accurately determining guaranteed suboptimal values of an unknown cost function on the basis of noisy measurements. We consider a set-valued variant to regression where, instead of finding a best…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-07-29 Jaap Eising , Jorge Cortes

In this note we consider a system of financial institutions and study systemic risk measures in the presence of a financial market and in a robust setting, namely, where no reference probability is assigned. We obtain a dual representation…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-08-19 Matteo Burzoni , Marco Frittelli , Federico Zorzi

We provide a new algorithm for solving Risk Sensitive Partially Observable Markov Decisions Processes, when the risk is modeled by a utility function, and both the state space and the space of observations is finite. This algorithm is based…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-07-19 Arsham Afsardeir , Andreas Kapetanis , Vaios Laschos , Klaus Obermayer

Observed clusters should be modelled by considering the distribution function to be a random variable that quantifies the degree of excitation of the system's normal modes. A system of canonical coordinates for the space of DFs is…

Astrophysics of Galaxies · Physics 2021-08-11 Jun Yan Lau , James Binney

In this paper, we propose a Spatial Robust Mixture Regression model to investigate the relationship between a response variable and a set of explanatory variables over the spatial domain, assuming that the relationships may exhibit complex…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-30 Wennan Chang , Pengtao Dang , Changlin Wan , Xiaoyu Lu , Yue Fang , Tong Zhao , Yong Zang , Bo Li , Chi Zhang , Sha Cao
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