Related papers: Multiscale feedback drives viral evolution and epi…
Infectious pathogens often propagate by superspreading, which focusses onward transmission on disproportionately few infected individuals. At the same time, infector-infectee pairs tend to have more similar transmission potentials than…
Despite being similar in structure, functioning, and size viral pathogens enjoy very different mostly well-defined ways of life. They occupy their hosts for a few days (influenza), for a few weeks (measles), or even lifelong (HCV), which…
Antigenic escape constitutes the main mechanism allowing rapidly evolving viruses to achieve endemicity. Beyond granting immune escape, empirical evidence also suggests that mutations of viruses might increase their inter-host…
In this paper we study intra-host viral adaptation by antigenic cooperation - a mechanism of immune escape that serves as an alternative to the standard mechanism of escape by continuous genomic diversification and allows to explain a…
Transmission rates in epidemic outbreaks may vary over time depending on the societal response. Non-pharmacological mitigation strategies such as social distancing and the adoption of protective equipment aim precisely at reducing…
Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed hierarchical network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population may be characterized by $H$ independent…
The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading is commonly carried out on secondary case…
Several pathogens use evolvability as a survival strategy against acquired immunity of the host. Despite their high variability in time, some of them exhibit quite low variability within the population at any given time, a somehow…
Epidemic modelling on complex networks has been studied intensively all the time. The majority of relative research assumes that the time scale of the underlying network evolution is much larger compared to the propagation dynamics on it,…
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed critical gaps in our ability to predict viral emergence and trajectory. Moving beyond sequence-dependent surveillance, we introduce V-Reactor Dynamics, a physics-based framework that models host-virus…
We explore the connection between migration patterns and emergent behaviors of evolving populations in spatially heterogeneous environments. Despite extensive studies in ecologically and medically important systems, a unifying framework…
Many vector-borne disease epidemic models neglect the fact that in modern human civilization, social awareness as well as self-defence system are overwhelming against advanced propagation of the disease. News are becoming more effortlessly…
Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…
We propose a novel slow-fast SIRS compartmental model with demography, by coupling a slow disease spreading model and a fast information and misinformation spreading model. Beside the classes of susceptible, infected and recovered…
In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent $p-$coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite…
In this paper, we develop a multi-group epidemic framework via virtual dispersal where the risk of infection is a function of the residence time and local environmental risk. This novel approach eliminates the need to define and measure…
Although traditional models of epidemic spreading focus on the number of infected, susceptible and recovered individuals, a lot of attention has been devoted to integrate epidemic models with population genetics. Here we develop an…
Multipartite viruses replicate through a puzzling evolutionary strategy. Their genome is segmented into two or more parts, and encapsidated in separate particles that appear to propagate independently. Completing the replication cycle,…
Social interactions are stratified in multiple contexts and are subject to complex temporal dynamics. The systematic study of these two features of social systems has started only very recently mainly thanks to the development of multiplex…
In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent p-coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite…