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We consider eigenvalues of generalized Wishart processes as well as particle systems, of which the empirical measures converge to deterministic measures as the dimension goes to infinity. In this paper, we obtain central limit theorems to…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-08-12 Jian Song , Jianfeng Yao , Wangjun Yuan

The convergence rate in Wasserstein distance is estimated for empirical measures of ergodic Markov processes, and the estimate can be sharp in some specific situations. The main result is applied to subordinations of typical models excluded…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-14 Feng-Yu Wang

Hawkes processes have seen a number of applications in finance, due to their ability to capture event clustering behaviour typically observed in financial systems. Given a calibrated Hawkes process, of concern is the statistical fit to…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2016-04-18 Roger Martins , Dieter Hendricks

We show that the jumps correlation matrix of a multivariate Hawkes process is related to the Hawkes kernel matrix through a system of Wiener-Hopf integral equations. A Wiener-Hopf argument allows one to prove that this system (in which the…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-16 Emmanuel Bacry , Jean-Francois Muzy

The aim of this paper is to establish the convergence and error bounds to the fully discrete solution for a class of nonlinear systems of reaction-diffusion nonlocal type with moving boundaries, using a linearized Crank-Nicolson-Galerkin…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-02-03 Rui M. P. Almeida , José C. M. Duque , Jorge Ferreira , Rui J. Robalo

We introduce a multivariate Hawkes process with constraints on its conditional density. It is a multivariate point process with conditional intensity similar to that of a multivariate Hawkes process but certain events are forbidden with…

Applications · Statistics 2014-02-14 Ban Zheng , François Roueff , Frédéric Abergel

We prove the central limit theorem (CLT) for a sequence of independent zero-mean random variables $\xi_j$, perturbed by predictable multiplicative factors $\lambda_j$ with values in intervals $[\underline\lambda_j,\overline\lambda_j]$. It…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-08-31 Dmitry B. Rokhlin

Using entropic inequalities from information theory, we provide new bounds on the total variation and 2-Wasserstein distances between a conditionally Gaussian law and a Gaussian law with invertible covariance matrix. We apply our results to…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-04 Lucia Celli , Giovanni Peccati

A uniform law of large numbers and a central limit theorem are established via a martingale approach for a univariate Hawkes process with immigration given by a renewal process. The results are obtained for renewal processes with absolutely…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-01 Luis Iván Hernández Ruíz

When the sample path of a Hawkes process is observed discretely, such that only the total event counts in disjoint time intervals are known, the likelihood function becomes intractable. To overcome the challenge of likelihood-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-24 Jason J. Lambe , Feng Chen , Tom Stindl , Tsz-Kit Jeffrey Kwan

In the paper [25], written in collaboration with Gesine Reinert, we proved a universality principle for the Gaussian Wiener chaos. In the present work, we aim at providing an original example of application of this principle in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-02-08 Ivan Nourdin , Giovanni Peccati

The Hawkes process (HP) has been widely applied to modeling self-exciting events including neuron spikes, earthquakes and tweets. To avoid designing parametric triggering kernel and to be able to quantify the prediction confidence, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-05 Rui Zhang , Christian Walder , Marian-Andrei Rizoiu

Hawkes processes are a popular framework to model the occurrence of sequential events, i.e., occurrence dynamics, in several fields such as social diffusion. In real-world scenarios, the inter-arrival time among events is irregular.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-19 Minju Jo , Seungji Kook , Noseong Park

We construct rigorously suitable approximate solutions to the Stokes/Cahn-Hilliard system by using the method of matched asymptotics expansions. This is a main step in the proof of convergence given in the first part of this contribution,…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2021-03-31 Helmut Abels , Andreas Marquardt

We introduce a spatiotemporal self-exciting point process $(N_t(x))$, boundedly finite both over time $[0,\infty)$ and space $\mathscr X$, with excitation structure determined by a graphon $W$ on $\mathscr{X}^2$. This graphon Hawkes process…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-05 Justin Baars , Roger J. A. Laeven , Michel Mandjes

Locally stationary Hawkes processes have been introduced in order to generalise classical Hawkes processes away from stationarity by allowing for a time-varying second-order structure. This class of self-exciting point processes has…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-31 François Roueff , Rainer Von Sachs

In this paper we consider a branching particle system consisting of particles moving according to the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process in $\Rd$ and undergoing a binary, supercritical branching with a constant rate $\lambda>0$. This system is…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-11-23 Radosław Adamczak , Piotr Miłoś

We put forward a general framework for the study of a pathwise central limit theorem (CLT) and a moderate deviation principle (MDP) for stochastic partial differential equations perturbed with a small multiplicative linear noise by means of…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-07-21 Emanuela Gussetti

Based on a new coupling approach, we prove that the transition step of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm is contractive w.r.t. a carefully designed Kantorovich (L1 Wasserstein) distance. The lower bound for the contraction rate is…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-30 Nawaf Bou-Rabee , Andreas Eberle , Raphael Zimmer

This paper discusses a special class of nonlinear Hawkes processes, where the rate function is the exponential function. We call these processes loglinear Hawkes processes. In the main theorem, we give sufficient conditions for explosion…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-16 Tomasz R. Bielecki , Jacek Jakubowski , Matthias Kirchner , Mariusz Niewęgłowski