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This study aims to improve the spatial representation of uncertainties when regressing surface wind speeds from large-scale atmospheric predictors for sub-seasonal forecasting. Sub-seasonal forecasting often relies on large-scale…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Ganglin Tian , Anastase Alexandre Charantonis , Camille Le Coz , Alexis Tantet , Riwal Plougonven

Researchers develop models to explain the unknowns. These models typically involve parameters that capture tangible quantities, the estimation of which is desired. Parameter identifiability investigates the recoverability of the unknown…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-07-01 Anuththara Sarathchandra , Azadeh Aghaeeyan , Pouria Ramazi

We consider the inference problem for parameters in stochastic differential equation models from discrete time observations (e.g. experimental or simulation data). Specifically, we study the case where one does not have access to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-04-10 Sebastian Krumscheid

Bayesian posterior distributions naturally represent parameter uncertainty informed by data. However, when the parameter space is complex, as in many nonparametric settings where it is infinite-dimensional or combinatorially large, standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-22 Nicola Bariletto , Nhat Ho , Alessandro Rinaldo

This article is devoted to the detection of parameters in anomalous diffusion from a single passive measurement. More precisely, we consider the simultaneous identification of coefficients as well as a time-dependent source term appearing…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Maolin Deng , Ali Feizmohammadi , Bangti Jin , Yavar Kian

Diffusion probabilistic models have recently achieved remarkable success in generating high-quality images. However, balancing high perceptual quality and low distortion remains challenging in application of diffusion models in image…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-23 Juan Song , Jiaxiang He , Lijie Yang , Mingtao Feng , Keyan Wang

We study how to extend the use of the diffusion model to answer the causal question from the observational data under the existence of unmeasured confounders. In Pearl's framework of using a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) to capture the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-15 Tatsuhiro Shimizu

This paper explores optimal methods for obtaining one-dimensional (1D) powder pattern intensities from two-dimensional (2D) planar detectors with good estimates of their standard deviations. We describe methods to estimate uncertainties…

Materials Science · Physics 2014-09-12 Xiaohao Yang , Pavol Juhas , Simon J. L. Billinge

Causal inference in spatio-temporal settings is critically hindered by unmeasured confounders with complex spatio-temporal dynamics and the prevalence of multi-resolution data. While diffusion models present a promising avenue for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-07 Xinwen Liu , Lei Qian , Song Xi Chen , Niansheng Tang

We consider the inverse problem of fitting atmospheric dispersion parameters based on time-resolved back-scattered differential absorption Lidar (DIAL) measurements. The obvious advantage of light-based remote sensing modalities is their…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2023-08-01 Robert Lung , Nick Polydorides

Modeling long-range dependencies in time series generation poses a fundamental trade-off between representational capacity and computational efficiency. Traditional temporal diffusion models suffer from local entanglement and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-23 Rongyao Cai , Yuxi Wan , Kexin Zhang , Ming Jin , Zhiqiang Ge , Qingsong Wen , Yong Liu

In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-19 Omid Sedehi , Costas Papadimitriou , Lambros S. Katafygiotis

This article addresses the issue of estimating observation parameters (response and error parameters) in inverse problems. The focus is on cases where regularization is introduced in a Bayesian framework and the prior is modeled by a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-13 Jean-François Giovannelli

Model inadequacy and measurement uncertainty are two of the most confounding aspects of inference and prediction in quantitative sciences. The process of scientific inference (the inverse problem) and prediction (the forward problem)…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-11-30 Amir Shahmoradi

We present a scalable and efficient framework for the inference of spatially-varying parameters of continuum materials from image observations of their deformations. Our goal is the nondestructive identification of arbitrary damage,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-08-21 Joseph Kirchhoff , Dingcheng Luo , Thomas O'Leary-Roseberry , Omar Ghattas

Understanding and identifying different types of single molecules' diffusion that occur in a broad range of systems (including living matter) is extremely important, as it can provide information on the physical and chemical characteristics…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2023-03-07 Patrycja Kowalek , Hanna Loch-Olszewska , Łukasz Łaszczuk , Jarosław Opała , Janusz Szwabiński

Conditional diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in various generative tasks recently, but their training typically relies on large-scale datasets that inevitably contain imprecise information in conditional inputs. Such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-13 Dong-Dong Wu , Jiacheng Cui , Wei Wang , Zhiqiang Shen , Masashi Sugiyama

We propose a Bayesian inference framework to estimate uncertainties in inverse scattering problems. Given the observed data, the forward model and their uncertainties, we find the posterior distribution over a finite parameter field…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-11-17 Ana Carpio , Sergei Iakunin , Georg Stadler

The forward problems of pattern formation have been greatly empowered by extensive theoretical studies and simulations, however, the inverse problem is less well understood. It remains unclear how accurately one can use images of pattern…

Computational Physics · Physics 2021-04-07 Hongbo Zhao , Richard D. Braatz , Martin Z. Bazant

Deep generative models have demonstrated remarkable success in medical image synthesis. However, ensuring conditioning faithfulness and high-quality synthetic images for direct or counterfactual generation remains a challenge. In this work,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-31 Fangrui Huang , Alan Wang , Binxu Li , Bailey Trang , Ridvan Yesiloglu , Tianyu Hua , Wei Peng , Ehsan Adeli