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There are numerous examples of natural and artificial processes that represent stochastic sequences of events followed by an absolute refractory period during which the occurrence of a subsequent event is impossible. In the simplest case of…
Sequential analysis encompasses simulation theories and methods where the sample size is determined dynamically based on accumulating data. Since the conceptual inception, numerous sequential stopping rules have been introduced, and many…
The paper is a sketch of systematic presentation of distributional limit theorems and their refinements for compound sums. When analyzing, e.g., ergodic semi-Markov systems with discrete or continuous time, this allows us to separate those…
We derive upper bounds on the tail conditional expectation of binomial and Poisson random variables. Those upper bounds are subsequently employed to the problem of obtaining non-asymptotic lower bounds on the probability that the…
Adaptive randomized experiments update treatment probabilities as data accrue, but still require an end-of-study interval for the average treatment effect (ATE) at a prespecified horizon. Under adaptive assignment, propensities can keep…
For a branching random walk that drifts to infinity, consider its Malthusian martingale, i.e.~the additive martingale with parameter $\theta$ being the smallest root of the characteristic equation. When particles are killed below the…
An estimate of the order of approximation in the central limit theorem for strictly stationary associated random variables with finite moments of order q > 2 is obtained. A moderate deviation result is also obtained. We have a refinement of…
A curious connection exists between the theory of optimal stopping for independent random variables, and branching processes. In particular, for the branching process $Z_n$ with offspring distribution $Y$, there exists a random variable $X$…
We consider estimating the shared mean of a sequence of heavy-tailed random variables taking values in a Banach space. In particular, we revisit and extend a simple truncation-based mean estimator first proposed by Catoni and Giulini. While…
Random walk is one of the most classical and well-studied model in probability theory. For two correlated random walks on lattice, every step of the random walks has only two states, moving in the same direction or moving in the opposite…
We examine random variables in the power law/regularly varying class with stochastic tail exponent, the exponent $\alpha$ having its own distribution. We show the effect of stochasticity of $\alpha$ on the expectation and higher moments of…
This paper deals with the exponential stabilization of a time-delay system with an average of the state as the output. A general stability theorem with a guaranteed exponential decay-rate based on a Wirtinger-based inequality is provided.…
Noncausal, or anticipative, heavy-tailed processes generate trajectories featuring locally explosive episodes akin to speculative bubbles in financial time series data. For $(X_t)$ a two-sided infinite $\alpha$-stable moving average (MA),…
We derive two-sided bounds for moments and tails of random quadratic forms (random chaoses of order $2$), generated by independent symmetric random variables such that $\lVert X \rVert_{2p} \leq \alpha \lVert X \rVert_p$ for any $p\geq 1$…
We apply Lindeberg's method, invented to prove a central limit theorem, to analyze the moderate deviations around such a central limit theorem. In particular, we will show moderate deviation principles for martingales as well as for random…
We show that, under certain smoothness conditions, a Brownian martingale at a fixed time can be represented as an exponential of its value at a later time. The time-dependent generator of this exponential operator is equal to one half times…
Freedman's inequality is a supermartingale counterpart to Bennett's inequality. This result shows that the tail probabilities of a supermartingale is controlled by the quadratic characteristic and a uniform upper bound for the…
The best arm identification problem requires identifying the best alternative (i.e., arm) in active experimentation using the smallest number of experiments (i.e., arm pulls), which is crucial for cost-efficient and timely decision-making…
We study randomly stopped sums via their asymptotic scales. First, finiteness of moments is considered. To generalise this study, asymptotic scales applicable to the class of all heavy-tailed random variables are used. The stopping is…
We derive new bounds of the remainder in a combinatorial central limit theorem without assumptions on independence and existence of moments of summands. For independent random variables our theorems imply Esseen and Berry-Esseen type…