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Accurate estimates of the reproduction ratio are crucial to project infectious disease epidemic evolution and guide public health response. Here, we prove that estimates of the reproduction ratio based on inference from surveillance data…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-01-08 Piero Birello , Michele Re Fiorentin , Boxuan Wang , Vittoria Colizza , Eugenio Valdano

Scoliosis is one of the most common diseases in adolescents. Traditional screening methods for the scoliosis usually use radiographic examination, which requires certified experts with medical instruments and brings the radiation risk.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-11-26 Xiaojia Zhu , Rui Chen , Xiaoqi Guo , Zhiwen Shao , Yuhu Dai , Ming Zhang , Chuandong Lang

Binary regression models are commonly used in disciplines such as epidemiology and ecology to determine how spatial covariates influence individuals. In many studies, binary data are shared in a spatially aggregated form to protect privacy.…

Strategies adopted globally to mitigate the threat of COVID-19 have primarily involved lockdown measures with substantial economic and social costs with varying degrees of success. Morbidity patterns of COVID-19 variants have a strong…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-01-19 Fatima-Zahra Jaouimaa , Daniel Dempsey , Suzanne van Osch , Stephen Kinsella , Kevin Burke , Jason Wyse , James Sweeney

Area-specific causal inference is important in many policy and survey applications, where the goal is to evaluate treatment effects for small geographic or demographic domains. Existing causal small area estimation methods, however,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-06 Tsubasa Ito , Shonosuke Sugasawa

Estimating personal well-being draws increasing attention particularly from healthcare and pharmaceutical industries. We propose an approach to estimate personal well-being in terms of various measurements such as anxiety, sleep quality and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2019-10-23 Samuel Kim , Namhee Kwon , Henry O'Connell

As the aging population grows, particularly for the baby boomer generation, the United States is witnessing a significant increase in the elderly population experiencing multifunctional disabilities. These disabilities, stemming from a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-09 Suiyao Chen , Xinyi Liu , Yulei Li , Jing Wu , Handong Yao

In this paper, we consider the problem of partitioning a small data sample of size $n$ drawn from a mixture of $2$ sub-gaussian distributions. Our work is motivated by the application of clustering individuals according to their population…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-05 Shuheng Zhou

This paper relies on a microsimulation framework to undertake an analysis of the distributional implications of the COVID-19 crisis over three waves. Given the lack of real-time survey data during the fast moving crisis, it applies a…

General Economics · Economics 2021-03-16 Cathal O'Donoghue , Denisa M. Sologon , Iryna Kyzyma , John McHale

A commonly observed pattern in machine learning models is an underprediction of the target feature, with the model's predicted target rate for members of a given category typically being lower than the actual target rate for members of that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-06 Owen O'Neill , Fintan Costello

Following the recent publication of our book on Exploring the Health State of a Population by Dynamic Modeling Methods in The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis (DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-65142-2) we provide this…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2017-11-28 Christos H Skiadas , Charilaos Skiadas

Health exams determine a patient's health status by comparing the patient's measurement with a population reference range, a 95% interval derived from a homogeneous reference population. Similarly, most of the established relation among…

Applications · Statistics 2018-06-04 Xiaoyue Niu , Peter D. Hoff

Chronic diseases and cancer account for over 75 percent of healthcare costs in the US. Increased prevention services and improved primary care are thought to decrease costs. Current models for detecting changes in the health of populations…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-07-15 Jacob Kuriyan , Nathaniel Cobb

Accurate subnational estimation of health indicators is critical for public health planning, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where data and analytic tools are often limited. sae4health is an open-access Shiny…

Computation · Statistics 2025-09-30 Yunhan Wu , Qianyu Dong , Jieyi Xu , Zehang Richard Li , Jon Wakefield

The average household income is one of the most important indexes for decision making and the modelling of economic inequity and poverty. In this work we propose a practical procedure to estimate the average income using small area methods.…

Applications · Statistics 2019-07-12 Julieth Castañeda , Cristian Tellez , Jairo Fuquene

The purpose of this article is to infer patient level outcomes from population level randomized control trials (RCTs). In this pursuit, we utilize the recently proposed synthetic nearest neighbors (SNN) estimator. At its core, SNN leverages…

When doing impact evaluation and making causal inferences, it is important to acknowledge the heterogeneity of the treatment effects for different domains (geographic, socio-demographic, or socio-economic). If the domain of interest is…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-12 Setareh Ranjbar , Nicola Salvati , Barbara Pacini

In the field of population health research, understanding the similarities between geographical areas and quantifying their shared effects on health outcomes is crucial. In this paper, we synthesise a number of existing methods to create a…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-27 Wala Draidi Areed , Aiden Price , Helen Thompson , Reid Malseed , Kerrie Mengersen

The estimation of the potential impact fraction (including the population attributable fraction) with continuous exposure data frequently relies on strong distributional assumptions. However, these assumptions are often violated if the…

Small-area mortality estimation is inherently difficult, as random fluctuations from low death counts can obscure real geographic differences. We introduce a flexible model that borrows strength across age, space, and time to estimate…

Applications · Statistics 2025-11-25 Jacob Martin , Carlo Giovanni Camarda