Related papers: Confidence over Time: Confidence Calibration with …

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown impressive performance in mathematical reasoning tasks when guided by Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting. However, they tend to produce highly confident yet incorrect outputs, which poses significant…

Uncertainty calibration is essential for the safe deployment of large language models (LLMs), particularly when users rely on verbalized confidence estimates. While prior work has focused on classifiers or short-form generation, confidence…

Accurately gauging the confidence level of Large Language Models' (LLMs) predictions is pivotal for their reliable application. However, LLMs are often uncalibrated inherently and elude conventional calibration techniques due to their…

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across a wide range of tasks in various domains. Despite their impressive performance, they can be unreliable due to factual errors in their generations. Assessing their…

Reliability and failure detection of large language models (LLMs) is critical for their deployment in high-stakes, multi-step reasoning tasks. Prior work explores confidence estimation for self-evaluating LLM-scorer systems, with confidence…

Confidence in LLMs is a useful indicator of model uncertainty and answer reliability. Existing work mainly focused on single-turn scenarios, while research on confidence in complex multi-turn interactions is limited. In this paper, we…

Although contemporary large language models (LMs) demonstrate impressive question-answering capabilities, their answers are typically the product of a single call to the model. This entails an unwelcome degree of opacity and compromises…

As reasoning modules, such as the chain-of-thought mechanism, are applied to large language models, they achieve strong performance on various tasks such as answering common-sense questions and solving math problems. The main challenge now…

There is a growing literature on reasoning by large language models (LLMs), but the discussion on the uncertainty in their responses is still lacking. Our aim is to assess the extent of confidence that LLMs have in their answers and how it…

Large language models (LLMs) are systematically overconfident: they routinely express high certainty on questions they often answer incorrectly. Existing calibration methods either require labeled validation data, degrade under distribution…

As artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly large language models (LLMs), become increasingly integrated into decision-making processes, the ability to trust their outputs is crucial. To earn human trust, LLMs must be well…

Signal Temporal Logic (STL) inference seeks to extract human-interpretable rules from time-series data, but existing methods lack formal confidence guarantees for the inferred rules. Conformal prediction (CP) is a technique that can provide…

LLMs can solve complex tasks by generating long, multi-step reasoning chains. Test-time scaling (TTS) can further improve performance by sampling multiple variants of intermediate reasoning steps, verifying their correctness, and selecting…

While large language models (LLMs) improve performance by explicit reasoning, their responses are often overconfident, even though they include linguistic expressions demonstrating uncertainty. In this work, we identify what linguistic…

We investigate the calibration of large language models' (LLMs') confidence across diverse tasks. The results of our preregistered study show that the current crop of LLMs are, like people, too sure they are right: confidence exceeds…

To enhance Large Language Models' (LLMs) reliability, calibration is essential -- the model's assessed confidence scores should align with the actual likelihood of its responses being correct. However, current confidence elicitation methods…

Large Language Models (LLMs) often exhibit strong linguistic abilities while remaining unreliable on multi-step reasoning tasks, particularly when deployed without additional training or fine-tuning. In this work, we study inference-time…

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in domains where errors carry high social, scientific, or safety costs. Yet standard confidence estimators, such as token likelihood, semantic similarity and multi-sample consistency,…

This project develops a self correcting framework for large language models (LLMs) that detects and mitigates hallucinations during multi-step reasoning. Rather than relying solely on final answer correctness, our approach leverages fine…

Large language models (LLMs) tend to verbalize confidence scores that are largely detached from their actual accuracy, yet the geometric relationship governing this behavior remain poorly understood. In this work, we present a mechanistic…