Related papers: Measuring growth and convergence at the mesoscale
Urbanization has been the dominant demographic trend in the entire world, during the last half century. Rural to urban migration, international migration, and the re-classification or expansion of existing city boundaries have been among…
Urban scaling theory explains the increasing returns to scale of urban wealth indicators by the per capita increase of human interactions within cities. This explanation implicitly assumes urban areas as isolated entities and ignores their…
This study downscales the population and gross domestic product (GDP) scenarios given under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) into 0.5-degree grids. Our downscale approach has the following features: (i) it explicitly considers spatial…
The growth of large-scale AI systems is increasingly constrained by infrastructure limits: power availability, thermal and water constraints, interconnect scaling, memory pressure, data-pipeline throughput, and rapidly escalating lifecycle…
From genomes and ecosystems to bureaucracies and cities, the growth of complex systems occurs by adding new types of functions and expanding existing ones. We present a simple generative model that generalizes the Yule-Simon process by…
Forecast combination -- the aggregation of individual forecasts from multiple experts or models -- is a proven approach to economic forecasting. To date, research on economic forecasting has concentrated on local combination methods, which…
A city (or an urban cluster) is not an isolated spatial unit, but a combination of areas with closely linked socio-economic activities. However, so far, we lack a consistent and quantitative approach to define multi-level urban clusters…
Classical scaling laws model AI performance as monotonically improving with model size. We challenge this assumption by deriving the Institutional Scaling Law, showing that institutional fitness -- jointly measuring capability, trust,…
We derive a specific functional form for factor alpha decay -- hyperbolic decay alpha(t) = K/(1+lambda*t) -- from a game-theoretic equilibrium model, and test it against linear and exponential alternatives. Using eight Fama-French factors…
Understanding cities is central to addressing major global challenges from climate and health to economic resilience. Although increasingly perceived as fundamental socio-economic units, the detailed fabric of urban economic activities is…
Urban systems are characterized by populations with heterogeneous characteristics, and whose spatial distribution is crucial to understand inequalities in life expectancy or education level. Traditional studies on spatial segregation…
While the use of spatial agent-based and individual-based models has flourished across many scientific disciplines, the complexities these models generate are often difficult to manage and quantify. This research reduces population-driven,…
The growth of complex populations, such as microbial communities, forests, and cities, occurs over vastly different spatial and temporal scales. Although research in different fields has developed detailed, system-specific models to…
This study employs percolation theory to investigate the hierarchical organisation of Australian urban centres through the connectivity of their road networks. The analysis demonstrates how discrete urban clusters have developed into…
Mathematical properties of the historical GDP/cap distributions are discussed and explained. These distributions are frequently incorrectly interpreted and the Unified Growth Theory is an outstanding example of such common misconceptions.…
Using a large quarterly macroeconomic dataset for the period 1960-2017, we document the ability of specific financial ratios from the housing market and firms' aggregate balance sheets to predict GDP over medium-term horizons in the United…
Urban-rural gap and regional inequality are long standing problems in China and result in considerable number of studies. This paper examines the dynamic behaviors of incomes for both urban and rural areas with a prefectural data set. The…
Optimization and expansion are two modes of staged evolution of complex systems where macroscopic observables change at a decreasing, respectively increasing, rate. A prime example of evolutionary expansion, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)…
Urban planning, which aims to design feasible land-use configurations for target areas, has become increasingly essential due to the high-speed urbanization process in the modern era. However, the traditional urban planning conducted by…
In the pursuit of ever increasing efficiency and growth, our economies have evolved to remarkable degrees of complexity, with nested production processes feeding each other in order to create products of greater sophistication from less…